FC Porto vs Estoril – 31 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 31 · 20:30 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 1st · 24 pts · 8 played WWWWW

VS— Compare

Estoril 18th · 2 pts · 8 played LDLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto are clear favourites.

FC Porto are the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Estoril. FC Porto have 7 days of rest, Estoril 6.2 and have to travel 280 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel280 kmRest days7 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

FC Porto79%

Draw14%

Estoril7%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.71

FC Porto81%

Draw13%

Estoril6%

Expected goals 2.74 – 0.65

FC Porto79%

Draw14%

Estoril7%

Expected goals 2.71 – 0.71

FC Porto73%

Draw17%

Estoril10%

Expected goals 2.42 – 0.79

FC Porto80%

Draw13%

Estoril7%

Expected goals 2.83 – 0.74

Over 2.5 66% Both score 48% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 11 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

11°CClear

Precipitation 13%
Wind 12 km/h
Humidity 78%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Estoril 3 Losses in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

FC Porto

Estoril

80 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

74 AttackIn forecast 21

80 DefenceIn forecast 29

84 Form indexContext 10

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack+14%

Defense risk−13%

Estoril

Attack−33%

Defense risk+56%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

FC Porto

Estoril

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.24 xGVia Att/Def 0.97

0.78 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.47

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 13%

16.25 ShotsContext 12.88

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

40% On target shareContext 39%

11.25 Shots in the boxContext 7.63

71% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 4%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.25 Shots allowedContext 13.75

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

2.75 BlocksContext 3.86

2.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

77% Save rateContext 61%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

426 PassesContext 402

363 Accurate passesContext 322

85% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.88 FoulsContext 10.88

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.13

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.60

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

1.75 xGVia Att/Def 1.02

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

90% Scored inContext 60%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.60 ShotsContext 12.70

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

39% On target shareContext 38%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.70

72% Box shareContext 61%

15% ConversionContext 5%

3.25 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.90 Shots allowedContext 13.50

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

2.80 BlocksContext 3.78

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

74% Save rateContext 58%

52% PossessionIn forecast 48%

416 PassesContext 411

351 Accurate passesContext 333

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.69

13.60 FoulsContext 11.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto WWWWL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km85 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts

Estoril LDLLL

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel280 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 10 · 1 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected

L10 OctA · Academico Viseu1–21.0 xPts
L20 SepH · Casa Pia1–21.8 xPts
L14 SepA · SC Braga0–10.7 xPts
D7 SepH · Arouca0–01.4 xPts
L31 AugA · Benfica1–20.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	Estoril
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	6.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	280 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	85 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	4	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct

99Diogo Costa(G)

74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes

10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt

11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

Estoril Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Academico Viseu (A) 1–2, 10 Oct

1Joel Robles(G)

5A. Tsoungui 6Xavi Sintes 35S. Amissah

21R. Jurišić 10J. Holsgrove 44M. Robin 2Ricard Sánchez

12João Carvalho 99R. Guitane

7André Lacximicant

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto No reported absences

Estoril No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estoril+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 0.50

Estoril · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	FC Porto	Estoril
Benfica	W 3–1 H	L 1–2 A
Casa Pia	W 4–1 A	L 1–2 H
Academico Viseu	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 A
Arouca	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Rio Ave	W 2–0 A	L 0–2 H
Points	15 of 15 · 3.00 per game	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 FC Porto wins1 draws2 Estoril wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.88 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

12 Apr 2026Estoril1–3FC Porto
30 Nov 2025FC Porto1–0Estoril
30 Mar 2025Estoril1–2FC Porto
3 Nov 2024FC Porto4–0Estoril
30 Mar 2024Estoril1–0FC Porto
3 Nov 2023FC Porto0–1Estoril

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	0.50
Conceded per game	0.50	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.00	3.42
Over 1.5	100%	75%
Over 2.5	63%	38%	66%
Over 3.5	25%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	48%
Clean sheets	50%	13%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	8	8

	FC Porto	Estoril	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	0.60
Conceded per game	0.90	1.60
Match goals	3.10	2.20	3.42
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	48%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	6.75	5.57
Corners conceded	3.63	4.14
Match total	10.38	9.71	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.38
Opponent cards	2.13	1.38
Match total	3.13	3.76	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	38% 3/8

	FC Porto	Estoril	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.00
Corners conceded	3.90	4.67
Match total	9.60	9.67	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.40
Opponent cards	2.40	1.60
Match total	3.60	4.00	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.