Benfica vs Alverca – 2 Nov 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 10 Mon, Nov 2 · 20:15 Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa

Benfica 2nd · 19 pts · 8 played WWWLW

VS— Compare

Alverca 8th · 11 pts · 8 played DLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Benfica are clear favourites.

Benfica are the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. Benfica have 7.1 days of rest, Alverca 9.2 and have to travel 22 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel22 kmRest days7.1 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Benfica76%

Draw15%

Alverca9%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.81

Benfica77%

Draw15%

Alverca8%

Expected goals 2.56 – 0.70

Benfica76%

Draw15%

Alverca9%

Expected goals 2.65 – 0.81

Benfica69%

Draw18%

Alverca12%

Expected goals 2.36 – 0.91

Benfica76%

Draw15%

Alverca9%

Expected goals 2.72 – 0.86

Over 2.5 67% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Lisboa)

12°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 7%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 74%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Benfica

Alverca

82 L90 StrengthIn forecast 30

82 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

81 AttackIn forecast 38

81 DefenceIn forecast 42

85 Form indexContext 64

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Benfica

Attack−1%

Defense risk+1%

Alverca

Attack−34%

Defense risk+75%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Benfica

Alverca

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.63

0.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

2.79 xGVia Att/Def 1.44

0.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

100% Scored inContext 88%

50% Clean sheetsContext 13%

19.50 ShotsContext 12.00

6.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

35% On target shareContext 34%

14.63 Shots in the boxContext 7.38

75% Box shareContext 59%

15% ConversionContext 14%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.00

7.63 Shots allowedContext 12.13

2.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

2.80 BlocksContext 3.29

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

59% Save rateContext 71%

63% PossessionIn forecast 43%

561 PassesContext 343

492 Accurate passesContext 273

88% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.15 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.13 FoulsContext 14.63

16.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.88 Yellow cardsContext 2.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

0.77 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

100% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.13 ShotsContext 11.00

5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 32%

13.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.80

71% Box shareContext 60%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.14

9.88 Shots allowedContext 11.80

3.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

2.56 BlocksContext 3.00

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

75% Save rateContext 69%

60% PossessionIn forecast 43%

538 PassesContext 350

472 Accurate passesContext 281

88% Pass accuracyContext 80%

7.16 Team ratingContext 6.73

11.00 FoulsContext 14.40

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Benfica WWLWW

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km10,418 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 85 · 12 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W15 OctH · Celtic4–12.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Guimaraes2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · FC Porto1–31.3 xPts
W16 SepA · AC Milan2–01.7 xPts
W13 SepH · GIL Vicente3–12.5 xPts

Alverca DLWWW

Rest9.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel22 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 64 · 10 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · +3.5 vs expected

W12 OctA · Famalicao4–10.9 xPts
W19 SepH · Rio Ave1–01.8 xPts
W12 SepA · Nacional3–11.3 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Braga1–21.0 xPts
D29 AugH · Santa Clara1–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Benfica	Alverca
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 26 Oct	9.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	22 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	10,418 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	3	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Benfica Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Celtic (H) 4–1, 15 Oct

1A. Trubin(G)

26S. Dahl 2C. Lenglet 44Tomás Araújo 6A. Bah

36João Palhinha 8F. Aursnes

25G. Prestianni 10H. Sudakov 11D. Lukébakio

22J. Durán

Alverca Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Famalicao (A) 4–1, 12 Oct

31Matheus Mendes(G)

12Isaac James 21Sergi Gómez 14S. Baseya

55Francisco Chissumba 6D. Gui 35Rayan Lucas 20Diogo Spencer

22Figueiredo 19D. Camara 10Chiquinho

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Benfica No reported absences

Alverca No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Benfica+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alverca+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Benfica · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.00

Alverca · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Benfica	Alverca
FC Porto	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Benfica wins0 draws0 Alverca wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

8 Feb 2026Benfica2–1Alverca
31 Aug 2025Alverca1–2Benfica

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Benfica	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.63
Conceded per game	0.88	1.50
Match goals	3.88	3.13	3.46
Over 1.5	100%	88%
Over 2.5	88%	63%	67%
Over 3.5	63%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	52%
Clean sheets	50%	13%
Failed to score	0%	13%
Games	8	8

	Benfica	Alverca	Forecast
Scored per game	2.70	1.40
Conceded per game	0.80	1.40
Match goals	3.50	2.80	3.46
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	60%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Benfica	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	6.00
Corners conceded	3.00	4.50
Match total	9.50	10.50	8.91
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.38
Opponent cards	3.13	1.88
Match total	5.13	4.26	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Over 4.5	75% 6/8	38% 3/8

	Benfica	Alverca	League
Corners
Corners won	6.38	5.63
Corners conceded	4.25	4.63
Match total	10.63	10.26	8.91
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.40
Opponent cards	2.20	1.80
Match total	4.60	4.20	4.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.