Academico Viseu
Attack+23%
Defense risk−17%
Our take
Academico Viseu are slight favourites.
Academico Viseu are the stronger side on L90 Strength (32 vs 21). Academico Viseu have 6.9 days of rest, Rio Ave 7 and have to travel 104 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel104 kmRest days6.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Academico Viseu53%
Draw24%
Rio Ave23%
Academico Viseu52%
Draw25%
Rio Ave23%
Academico Viseu53%
Draw24%
Rio Ave23%
Academico Viseu45%
Draw26%
Rio Ave29%
Academico Viseu54%
Draw23%
Rio Ave23%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 25 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Viseu)
9°CClear
- Precipitation 16%
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 62%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Academico Viseu and Rio Ave. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Streak
Academico Viseu
4
Wins in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Insight
Rio Ave
−0.92
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.73xG against1.65
-
Alert
Rio Ave
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Academico Viseu
−0.76
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 8-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.78
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
-
Alert
Rio Ave
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Rio Ave
−0.92
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.73xG against1.65
-
Insight
Academico Viseu
−0.76
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 8-match window
xG for1.02xG against1.78
Team strength
Academico ViseuRio Ave
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
32
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
28
AttackIn forecast
18
31
DefenceIn forecast
21
79
Form indexContext
17
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRio Ave
Attack+9%
Defense risk−5%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Academico ViseuRio Ave
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.13
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
75%
Scored inContext
38%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.00
ShotsContext
7.63
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
35%
On target shareContext
41%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
3.29
59%
Box shareContext
39%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
17.25
Shots allowedContext
16.38
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.88
4.13
BlocksContext
3.75
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
76%
Save rateContext
62%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
391
PassesContext
363
320
Accurate passesContext
300
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.63
14.25
FoulsContext
8.88
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
+0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
75%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.00
ShotsContext
7.90
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
35%
On target shareContext
39%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
3.78
59%
Box shareContext
42%
14%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
1.25
17.25
Shots allowedContext
16.60
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
4.13
BlocksContext
4.30
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
76%
Save rateContext
63%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
391
PassesContext
362
320
Accurate passesContext
298
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.65
14.25
FoulsContext
9.40
13.13
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Academico Viseu
LWWWW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km480 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 79 · 12 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +6.0 vs expected
Rio Ave
LLDLW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel104 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Academico Viseu |
Rio Ave |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct | 7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 104 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 480 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Academico Viseu
Last XI · not confirmed
98Ewerton(G)
3Miguel Brau
2N. Michelis
41A. Correia
75Robinho
7Luís Silva
8C. Kahraman
47L. Gohi
14S. Messeguem
31João Guilherme
33André Clóvis
Rio Ave
Last XI · not confirmed
32Vitor Hugo
17M. Vrousai
39Gustavo Mancha
5A. Ntoi
20João Tomé
54G. Liavas
79M. Patricio
7Diogo Bezerra
19M. Sellouki
80S. Clemmensen
11Jalen Blesa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Academico Viseu
No reported absences
Rio Ave
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Academico Viseu+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rio Ave+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Academico Viseu · Home
1.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Rio Ave · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Academico Viseu | Rio Ave |
|---|---|---|
| Estoril | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| Estrela | W 2–0 A | D 3–3 H |
| GIL Vicente | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Academico Viseu | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.13 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 63% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Academico Viseu | Rio Ave | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.38 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.89 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Academico Viseu | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 6.13 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.88 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 1.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 3.00 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Academico Viseu | Rio Ave | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 6.11 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.00 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.88 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.63 | 3.20 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 4/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Academico Viseu8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rio Ave8 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Academico Viseu8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
2
3
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rio Ave10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
