GIL Vicente vs Guimaraes

Primeira Liga Gameweek 10 Mon, Nov 2 · 20:15 Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos

GIL Vicente 6th · 14 pts · 8 played LLDWW

VS— Compare

Guimaraes 15th · 5 pts · 8 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GIL Vicente are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. GIL Vicente have 9 days of rest, Guimaraes 10 and have to travel 29 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel29 kmRest days9 · 10Matches / 14d1 · 1

GIL Vicente46%

Draw27%

Guimaraes28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.15

GIL Vicente46%

Draw26%

Guimaraes27%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.14

GIL Vicente46%

Draw27%

Guimaraes28%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.15

GIL Vicente38%

Draw27%

Guimaraes34%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.29

GIL Vicente46%

Draw26%

Guimaraes28%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.19

Over 2.5 51% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Barcelos)

9°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 13%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 75%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

GIL Vicente

Guimaraes

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 27

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

32 AttackIn forecast 28

50 DefenceIn forecast 39

46 Form indexContext 13

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GIL Vicente

Attack+5%

Defense risk−4%

Guimaraes

Attack−2%

Defense risk−4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

GIL Vicente

Guimaraes

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.63

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

0.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.35 Goals minus xGContext -0.85

75% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.50 ShotsContext 17.25

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

28% On target shareContext 23%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.63

61% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 4%

1.57 OffsidesContext 1.43

11.13 Shots allowedContext 9.13

2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.43

2.71 BlocksContext 3.00

2.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.17

76% Save rateContext 62%

53% PossessionIn forecast 54%

472 PassesContext 449

409 Accurate passesContext 370

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.69

13.13 FoulsContext 15.63

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.88

2.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.39

0.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.89

70% Scored inContext 40%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.10 ShotsContext 16.60

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

28% On target shareContext 23%

7.90 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

58% Box shareContext 62%

7% ConversionContext 3%

1.56 OffsidesContext 1.67

11.60 Shots allowedContext 8.90

3.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.00 BlocksContext 2.63

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.25

71% Save rateContext 62%

50% PossessionIn forecast 57%

447 PassesContext 448

386 Accurate passesContext 370

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.00 FoulsContext 14.70

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GIL Vicente LLDWW

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 7 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W19 OctA · SC Braga2–10.8 xPts
W9 OctA · Moreirense1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepH · Maritimo1–12.0 xPts
L13 SepA · Benfica1–30.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Academico Viseu0–11.8 xPts

Guimaraes LDLDL

Rest10 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel29 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 13 · 2 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected

L11 OctA · Benfica0–20.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Moreirense1–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Academico Viseu1–21.3 xPts
D6 SepH · Casa Pia0–02.1 xPts
L31 AugA · SC Braga0–10.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GIL Vicente	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	10Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	29 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	5.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GIL Vicente Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Braga (A) 2–1, 19 Oct

30Lucão(G)

45David Moreira 39Jonathan Buatu 4M. Elimbi 47Ricardo Esgaio

86Diogo Prioste 12A. Lausen

20Gil Martins 10Santi García 77Murilo

99M. Kaba

Guimaraes Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Benfica (A) 0–2, 11 Oct

48O. Zych(G)

13J. Teixeira Mendes 28Thiago Balieiro 21T. Borevković 23T. Strata

8Gonçalo Nogueira 44L. Doucet

7O. Camara 20Samu 17M. Nogueira

9A. Jakupovic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GIL Vicente No reported absences

Guimaraes No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

GIL Vicente · Home 1.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Guimaraes · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	GIL Vicente	Guimaraes
SC Braga	W 2–1 A	L 0–1 A
Moreirense	W 1–0 A	D 1–1 H
Benfica	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Academico Viseu	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 A
Casa Pia	W 2–0 H	D 0–0 H
Points	9 of 15 · 1.80 per game	2 of 15 · 0.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 GIL Vicente wins1 draws5 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.25 Over 2.538% Both scored25% Clean sheets25% · 63%

18 Apr 2026GIL Vicente0–1Guimaraes
8 Dec 2025Guimaraes0–0GIL Vicente
11 Apr 2025GIL Vicente0–1Guimaraes
2 Dec 2024Guimaraes4–0GIL Vicente
28 Jan 2024GIL Vicente1–0Guimaraes
19 Aug 2023Guimaraes2–1GIL Vicente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GIL Vicente	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.63
Conceded per game	0.75	1.25
Match goals	1.75	1.88	2.70
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	25%	25%	51%
Over 3.5	13%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	38%	54%
Clean sheets	50%	25%
Failed to score	25%	50%
Games	8	8

	GIL Vicente	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	0.50
Conceded per game	1.20	1.30
Match goals	2.10	1.80	2.70
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	20%	51%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	30%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GIL Vicente	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.71	5.75
Corners conceded	3.43	4.00
Match total	7.14	9.75	8.91
Over 8.5	14% 1/7	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	0% 0/7	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	0% 0/7	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.25	2.75
Opponent cards	2.25	2.50
Match total	4.50	5.25	4.55
Over 3.5	63% 5/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	63% 5/8	63% 5/8

	GIL Vicente	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.56	5.80
Corners conceded	3.56	3.80
Match total	7.12	9.60	8.91
Over 8.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	0% 0/9	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.70
Opponent cards	1.90	2.50
Match total	4.00	5.20	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.