Moreirense vs Estrela – 31 Oct 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:30 Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Moreirense 12th · 8 pts · 8 played LLWDL

VS— Compare

Estrela 10th · 10 pts · 8 played DWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Moreirense are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Estrela. Moreirense have 6 days of rest, Estrela 7 and have to travel 302 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel302 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Moreirense41%

Draw27%

Estrela32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Moreirense49%

Draw26%

Estrela25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Moreirense41%

Draw27%

Estrela32%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.24

Moreirense34%

Draw27%

Estrela39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.39

Moreirense43%

Draw26%

Estrela32%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.33

Over 2.5 50% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Moreira de Cónegos)

16°COvercast

Precipitation 19%
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 78%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Moreirense

Estrela

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

25 Current StrengthIn forecast 20

17 AttackIn forecast 24

27 DefenceIn forecast 27

23 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Moreirense

Attack+17%

Defense risk−10%

Estrela

Attack+13%

Defense risk−20%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Moreirense

Estrela

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.88

0.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.51

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.55

+0.49 Goals minus xGContext +0.24

63% Scored inContext 75%

13% Clean sheetsContext 0%

7.88 ShotsContext 12.63

2.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.13

35% On target shareContext 33%

4.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.63

55% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 14%

— OffsidesContext 1.60

15.13 Shots allowedContext 10.88

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.75

3.88 BlocksContext 2.13

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

58% Save rateContext 61%

36% PossessionIn forecast 51%

324 PassesContext 412

244 Accurate passesContext 345

75% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.48 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.63 FoulsContext 10.75

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.75

2.63 Yellow cardsContext 2.38

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75

+0.27 Goals minus xGContext +0.51

50% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

8.50 ShotsContext 11.10

2.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 34%

4.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

54% Box shareContext 69%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.50

14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

4.00 BlocksContext 2.40

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90

56% Save rateContext 63%

41% PossessionIn forecast 48%

364 PassesContext 384

286 Accurate passesContext 317

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.70

12.70 FoulsContext 11.00

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Moreirense LLWDL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km623 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

L9 OctH · GIL Vicente0–11.4 xPts
D20 SepA · Guimaraes1–10.9 xPts
W14 SepH · Maritimo3–11.7 xPts
L9 SepH · Benfica0–40.5 xPts
L4 SepA · FC Porto1–20.4 xPts

Estrela DWDLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel302 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L11 OctA · Arouca0–10.9 xPts
L20 SepH · Academico Viseu0–21.6 xPts
D14 SepA · Rio Ave3–31.4 xPts
W10 SepH · SC Braga2–11.0 xPts
D5 SepH · Famalicao2–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Moreirense	Estrela
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	623 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	8.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Moreirense Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GIL Vicente (H) 0–1, 9 Oct

13André Ferreira(G)

27Kiko 26Maracás 66G. Dambi Batista 76Dinis Pinto

65Guilherme Liberato 23N. John

19Tiago Andrade 7Manuel Mendonça 10Kiko Bondoso

79L. Vonić

Estrela Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Arouca (A) 0–1, 11 Oct

24Léo Linck(G)

55Rafa Soares 5S. Leković 30Patrick Luan 21M. Scholze

39G. Doue 78Santiago Serra

10I. Stoica 14L. Zvonarek 99A. Marcus

37Leandro Antonetti

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Moreirense No reported absences

Estrela No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Moreirense+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Estrela+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Moreirense · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.00

Estrela · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Moreirense	Estrela
Arouca	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 A
SC Braga	D 2–2 H	W 2–1 H
Points	1 of 6 · 0.50 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Moreirense wins3 draws1 Estrela wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.17 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 17%

2 May 2026Moreirense3–2Estrela
20 Dec 2025Estrela0–0Moreirense
2 Mar 2025Moreirense1–1Estrela
28 Sep 2024Estrela2–1Moreirense
7 Apr 2024Moreirense2–2Estrela
11 Nov 2023Estrela0–1Moreirense

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Moreirense	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.75
Conceded per game	1.88	1.88
Match goals	2.88	3.63	2.68
Over 1.5	75%	88%
Over 2.5	63%	75%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	63%
Both teams scored	50%	75%	55%
Clean sheets	13%	0%
Failed to score	38%	25%
Games	8	8

	Moreirense	Estrela	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.70
Match goals	2.50	3.30	2.68
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Moreirense	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	2.50	4.86
Corners conceded	4.88	4.71
Match total	7.38	9.57	8.91
Over 8.5	25% 2/8	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	25% 2/8	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	0% 0/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	2.75	2.38
Opponent cards	1.88	2.50
Match total	4.63	4.88	4.55
Over 3.5	75% 6/8	75% 6/8
Over 4.5	50% 4/8	63% 5/8

	Moreirense	Estrela	League
Corners
Corners won	3.30	4.22
Corners conceded	4.30	5.56
Match total	7.60	9.78	8.91
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	0% 0/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.70
Opponent cards	1.80	2.20
Match total	4.40	4.90	4.55
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.