Casa Pia
Attack−35%
Defense risk+62%
Our take
Sporting CP are clear favourites.
Sporting CP are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Casa Pia. Casa Pia have 6.2 days of rest, Sporting CP 5 and have to travel.
Rest days6.2 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 2
Casa Pia10%
Draw18%
Sporting CP72%
Casa Pia9%
Draw17%
Sporting CP74%
Casa Pia10%
Draw18%
Sporting CP72%
Casa Pia7%
Draw15%
Sporting CP78%
Casa Pia10%
Draw17%
Sporting CP73%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 0–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Jamor, Oeiras)
No weather data yet
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Casa Pia and Sporting CP. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Casa Pia
−0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.58xG against1.38
-
Alert
Casa Pia
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Sporting CP
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.71xG against1.04
-
Trend
Sporting CP
2.5
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sporting CP
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Sporting CP
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Sporting CP
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Casa Pia
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Casa Pia
−0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.58xG against1.38
Team strength
Casa PiaSporting CP
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
13
AttackIn forecast
75
25
DefenceIn forecast
81
19
Form indexContext
83
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSporting CP
Attack+18%
Defense risk−26%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Casa PiaSporting CP
0.38
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
2.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.13
0.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.70
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.85
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
25%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.63
ShotsContext
12.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
27%
On target shareContext
44%
6.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.25
59%
Box shareContext
67%
4%
ConversionContext
20%
1.83
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.25
Shots allowedContext
9.13
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.14
5.71
BlocksContext
2.14
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.29
67%
Save rateContext
73%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
343
PassesContext
550
268
Accurate passesContext
488
78%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.44
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.13
FoulsContext
11.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
2.13
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
30%
Scored inContext
100%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
11.90
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
32%
On target shareContext
45%
6.22
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
60%
Box shareContext
66%
5%
ConversionContext
21%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.88
15.50
Shots allowedContext
10.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
5.67
BlocksContext
2.33
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
70%
Save rateContext
81%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
327
PassesContext
521
251
Accurate passesContext
457
77%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.56
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.60
FoulsContext
11.70
12.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Casa Pia
LDLWL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 19 · 4 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
Sporting CP
WDDWW
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 11 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Casa Pia |
Sporting CP |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 5Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 3.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Casa Pia
Last XI · not confirmed
95Ivan Mandić(G)
75Pedro Rosas
43David Sousa
3Kaly
18André Geraldes
80L. Ofori
16Silvi
77B. Pauwels
70João Rêgo
11M. El Boukammiri
9Henrique Araújo
Sporting CP
Last XI · not confirmed
30Kaique(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
8João Simões
19N. Irankunda
97L. Suárez
10Geny Catamo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Casa Pia
No reported absences
Sporting CP
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Casa Pia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Casa Pia · Home
0.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-4
- Scored
- 0.25
- Conceded
- 3.25
Sporting CP · Away
2.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Casa Pia | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
0 Casa Pia wins0 draws8 Sporting CP wins
Goals per game0.75 – 3.38
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 16 Jan 2026Sporting CP3–0Casa Pia
- 8 Aug 2025Casa Pia0–2Sporting CP
- 9 Mar 2025Casa Pia1–3Sporting CP
- 5 Oct 2024Sporting CP2–0Casa Pia
- 29 Jan 2024Sporting CP8–0Casa Pia
- 18 Aug 2023Casa Pia1–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.38 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.13 | 1.13 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.63 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 75% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 75% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 75% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 10.25 | 6.86 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.38 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.13 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.51 | 4.88 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 6/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Casa Pia | Sporting CP | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 3.67 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 6.89 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.60 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Casa Pia8 games · scored 3 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
2
76-90
Sporting CP8 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Casa Pia10 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
6
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
