Maritimo
Attack−8%
Defense risk−4%
Our take
Santa Clara are slight favourites.
Santa Clara are the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Santa Clara. Maritimo have 8.9 days of rest, Santa Clara 6 and have to travel 964 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel964 kmRest days8.9 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Maritimo27%
Draw27%
Santa Clara46%
Maritimo29%
Draw27%
Santa Clara44%
Maritimo27%
Draw27%
Santa Clara46%
Maritimo21%
Draw26%
Santa Clara53%
Maritimo28%
Draw26%
Santa Clara46%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
11°CLight rain
- Precipitation 57%
- Wind 3 km/h
- Humidity 100%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Maritimo and Santa Clara. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Maritimo
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Santa Clara
+0.43
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.18xG against0.75
-
Trend
Santa Clara
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Maritimo
75%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Santa Clara
5
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Santa Clara
0.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Maritimo
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Maritimo
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.05xG against1.41
Team strength
MaritimoSanta Clara
16
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
16
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
15
AttackIn forecast
29
20
DefenceIn forecast
53
12
Form indexContext
73
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSanta Clara
Attack+27%
Defense risk−22%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
MaritimoSanta Clara
1.13
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
88%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
63%
10.00
ShotsContext
13.13
3.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
27%
6.75
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
65%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.80
14.13
Shots allowedContext
7.75
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.38
3.57
BlocksContext
1.63
3.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.14
67%
Save rateContext
83%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
366
PassesContext
379
291
Accurate passesContext
300
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.85
15.25
FoulsContext
13.25
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
1.63
Yellow cardsContext
2.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.05
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.41
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
90%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
11.90
ShotsContext
12.60
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
30%
On target shareContext
24%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
64%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.00
OffsidesContext
1.57
13.60
Shots allowedContext
8.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
3.33
BlocksContext
2.10
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
69%
Save rateContext
88%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
372
PassesContext
367
300
Accurate passesContext
289
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.61
Team ratingContext
6.88
16.00
FoulsContext
12.50
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Maritimo
LLLDL
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,474 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 12 · 1 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Santa Clara
DWWDW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel964 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Maritimo |
Santa Clara |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 23 Oct | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 964 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,474 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Maritimo
Last XI · not confirmed
30Fran Vieites(G)
23Paulo Henrique
22G. Szalai
44Romain Correia
2Igor Julião
14R. Guzzo
21Ibrahim Alani
10Martín Tejón
8M. Dominguez
15Tomás Tavares
17Adrián Butzke
Santa Clara
Last XI · not confirmed
1Lucas França(G)
5Guilherme Romão
21Emanuel Fernandes
4Pedro Pacheco
42Lucas Soares
20Tiago Ribeiro
6Pedro Ferreira
8José Tavares
10Brenner Lucas Gonçalves Santos
9Gonçalo Paciência
70Vinícius Lopes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Maritimo
No reported absences
Santa Clara
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Maritimo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Santa Clara+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Maritimo · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.75
Santa Clara · Away
2.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Maritimo | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca | L 1–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Academico Viseu | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Famalicao | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Casa Pia | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game | 12 of 12 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Maritimo wins0 draws1 Santa Clara wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 25 Feb 2023Maritimo3–1Santa Clara
- 4 Sep 2022Santa Clara2–1Maritimo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 2.00 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 38% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 38% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 63% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.13 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.88 | 1.90 | 2.58 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 20% | |
| Games | 8 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.88 | 4.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 7.38 | 9.51 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 13% 1/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 2.88 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.88 | 5.13 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 38% 3/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 2/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Maritimo | Santa Clara | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 9.90 | 8.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.40 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Maritimo8 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Santa Clara8 games · scored 12 · conceded 4
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Maritimo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 17
4
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
Santa Clara10 games · scored 14 · conceded 5
2
0-15
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
