FC Porto vs VfB Stuttgart – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 20:00 Estádio Do Dragão, Porto

FC Porto 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

First leg2–1 2–0Full time

VfB Stuttgart 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Porto were slight favourites.

FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FC Porto. FC Porto had 4 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 4.1 and had to travel 1,631 km.

Away travel1,631 kmRest days4 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

FC Porto56%

Draw24%

VfB Stuttgart20%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.03

FC Porto51%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.06

FC Porto56%

Draw24%

VfB Stuttgart20%

Expected goals 1.84 – 1.03

FC Porto48%

Draw26%

VfB Stuttgart26%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.15

FC Porto55%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart20%

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.96

Over 2.5 55% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Porto)

No weather data yet

RefereeAnthony Taylor

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.24
Matches 200

Team strength

FC Porto

VfB Stuttgart

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 69

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

74 AttackIn forecast 70

80 DefenceIn forecast 58

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Porto

Attack—

Defense risk—

VfB Stuttgart

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

FC Porto

VfB Stuttgart

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.64 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

0.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32

+0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

100% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.30 ShotsContext 14.90

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

38% On target shareContext 39%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

61% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.30 OffsidesContext 2.00

8.60 Shots allowedContext 10.60

2.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.00 BlocksContext 2.44

2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

82% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 62%

417 PassesContext 544

349 Accurate passesContext 459

84% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.97

12.80 FoulsContext 8.80

12.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Porto

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,808 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

VfB Stuttgart

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,631 km297 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Porto	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,631 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,808 km	297 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	3	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Porto Confirmed XI

4-3-3

99Diogo Costa(G)

12Z. Sanusi 5J. Bednarek 3Thiago Silva 20Alberto Baio

86Rodrigo Mora 13P. Rosario 42S. Fofana

17Borja Sainz 29T. Moffi 7William Gomes

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

VfB Stuttgart Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

33A. Nübel(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 14L. Jaquez

10C. Führich 6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor 7M. Mittelstädt

11B. El Khannouss

26D. Undav 9E. Demirović

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Porto Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

VfB Stuttgart Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

FC Porto+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
VfB Stuttgart-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

FC Porto · Home No home games yet this season.

VfB Stuttgart · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 FC Porto wins0 draws0 VfB Stuttgart wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

12 Mar 2026VfB Stuttgart1–2FC Porto

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Porto	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	2.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	2.87
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	55%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	55%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	FC Porto	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.00
Conceded per game	0.80	1.20
Match goals	2.80	3.20	2.87
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	55%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	0%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Porto	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	2.00	1.00
Corners conceded	1.00	2.00
Match total	3.00	3.00	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	4.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	6.00	6.00	4.40
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	FC Porto	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	5.00
Corners conceded	3.44	4.20
Match total	8.55	9.20	9.00
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.70
Opponent cards	2.80	1.10
Match total	4.80	2.80	4.40
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Anthony Taylor 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.75league 4.50

Red cards0.14league 0.42

Cards 5+36%league 67%

Fouls21.0league 26.7

Penalties0.24league 0.08

Home wins35%league 42%

FC Porto2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L4 Oct 23H · Barcelona0–11
W4 Oct 22H · Bayer Leverkusen2–03

VfB Stuttgart

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.