Jagiellonia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht are slight favourites.
Anderlecht are the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Anderlecht. Jagiellonia have 7 days of rest, Anderlecht 7 and have to travel 1,309 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,309 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Jagiellonia33%
Draw25%
Anderlecht42%
Jagiellonia36%
Draw27%
Anderlecht37%
Jagiellonia33%
Draw25%
Anderlecht42%
Jagiellonia26%
Draw24%
Anderlecht50%
Jagiellonia33%
Draw26%
Anderlecht41%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 29 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Białystok)
12°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 58%
- Wind 18 km/h
- Humidity 98%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Jagiellonia and Anderlecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Jagiellonia
83%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Anderlecht
6
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Jagiellonia
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Jagiellonia
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.55xG against1.78
-
Insight
Anderlecht
0.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Trend
Jagiellonia
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Jagiellonia
83%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Jagiellonia
6
Scoring in a row
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Anderlecht
6
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Anderlecht
0.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Jagiellonia
−0.23
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.55xG against1.78
-
Insight
Jagiellonia
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
JagielloniaAnderlecht
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
31
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
27
AttackIn forecast
37
28
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
59
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
JagielloniaAnderlecht
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.93
Goals minus xGContext
-0.79
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.00
ShotsContext
11.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
44%
On target shareContext
48%
—
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
—
Box shareContext
68%
22%
ConversionContext
4%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
19.00
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
6.00
BlocksContext
2.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
70%
Save rateContext
77%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
363
PassesContext
519
294
Accurate passesContext
452
81%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.86
16.50
FoulsContext
13.50
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
16.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
1.78
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.10
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
100%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
14.00
ShotsContext
11.88
6.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
49%
On target shareContext
38%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.63
64%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.17
Shots allowedContext
11.25
4.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.63
5.22
BlocksContext
1.90
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
72%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
392
PassesContext
533
319
Accurate passesContext
459
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.93
14.44
FoulsContext
12.90
13.44
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Jagiellonia
LW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 45 · 3 pts vs 3.5 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Anderlecht
WLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,309 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Jagiellonia |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct | 7UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,309 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 2.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Jagiellonia
Last XI · not confirmed
50S. Abramowicz(G)
20B. Wdowik
4Y. Kobayashi
5Bernardo Vital
27Rodrigo Conceição
7K. Szmyt
19A. Klynge
6T. Romanczuk
72K. Jóźwiak
30O. Sow
11Jesús Imaz
Anderlecht
Last XI · not confirmed
26C. Coosemans(G)
5O. Reabciuk
27L. Pétrot
12A. Omobamidele
50K. Barry
19Thelo Aasgaard
29M. Stroeykens
83T. Degreef
18L. Ambros
10M. Winkler
9M. CvetkoviÄ
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Jagiellonia
No reported absences
Anderlecht
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Jagiellonia+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Jagiellonia · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Anderlecht · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Jagiellonia | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.00 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Jagiellonia | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.17 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 2.10 | 3.01 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 20% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Jagiellonia | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 9.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Jagiellonia | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.29 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.72 | 9.20 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Jagiellonia2 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Anderlecht2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Jagiellonia10 games · scored 21 · conceded 10
3
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
3
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 14 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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