Istanbul Basaksehir
Attack+20%
Defense risk−13%
Istanbul Basaksehir
10th · 11 pts · 8 played
LLWDW
VS—
Compare
Samsunspor
17th · 4 pts · 8 played
LLLLL
Our take
Istanbul Basaksehir are slight favourites.
Istanbul Basaksehir are the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Istanbul Basaksehir. Istanbul Basaksehir have 5.9 days of rest, Samsunspor 7.9 and have to travel 619 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel619 kmRest days5.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Istanbul Basaksehir60%
Draw21%
Samsunspor19%
Istanbul Basaksehir53%
Draw25%
Samsunspor22%
Istanbul Basaksehir60%
Draw21%
Samsunspor19%
Istanbul Basaksehir51%
Draw23%
Samsunspor25%
Istanbul Basaksehir59%
Draw22%
Samsunspor19%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
14°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 28%
- Wind 8 km/h
- Humidity 85%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Istanbul Basaksehir and Samsunspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Istanbul Basaksehir
+0.57
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.75xG against1.18
-
Insight
Istanbul Basaksehir
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Istanbul Basaksehir
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Samsunspor
−0.87
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.94xG against1.81
-
Alert
Samsunspor
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Samsunspor
6
Losses in a row
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Istanbul Basaksehir
3
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Samsunspor
2.4
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Samsunspor
−0.87
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for0.94xG against1.81
-
Alert
Istanbul Basaksehir
1.5
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
Istanbul BasaksehirSamsunspor
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
36
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
32
AttackIn forecast
15
35
DefenceIn forecast
18
33
Form indexContext
4
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSamsunspor
Attack−2%
Defense risk+6%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Istanbul BasaksehirSamsunspor
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.38
1.46
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
75%
Scored inContext
50%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
11.88
ShotsContext
12.38
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.43
34%
On target shareContext
24%
6.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.25
54%
Box shareContext
55%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.20
12.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.13
3.50
BlocksContext
3.88
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
70%
Save rateContext
63%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
451
PassesContext
473
383
Accurate passesContext
399
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.61
13.88
FoulsContext
12.75
11.38
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.75
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
80%
Scored inContext
50%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.00
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
34%
On target shareContext
28%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
59%
Box shareContext
56%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.50
Shots allowedContext
16.50
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.30
BlocksContext
4.00
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
72%
Save rateContext
65%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
431
PassesContext
461
364
Accurate passesContext
385
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.66
14.20
FoulsContext
12.50
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Istanbul Basaksehir
LLWDW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 7 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Samsunspor
LLLLL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel619 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 4 · 0 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · -6.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Istanbul Basaksehir |
Samsunspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 26 Oct | 7.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 619 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Istanbul Basaksehir
Last XI · not confirmed
16M. Şengezer(G)
38S. Kharebashvili
27O. Ba
23E. Bayram
33M. Karbownik
18J. Kałuziński
8O. Kemen
77I. Brnić
14E. Shomurodov
70A. Skov Olsen
17U. Bozok
Samsunspor
Last XI · not confirmed
1O. Kocuk(G)
17L. Tómasson
34G. Guarino
22Y. Çift
2J. Mendes
4Elliot Watt
19O. Øhlenschlæger
11E. Kılınç
20Y. Kayan
10T. Coulibaly
18M. Bayo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Istanbul Basaksehir
No reported absences
Samsunspor
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Istanbul Basaksehir+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Samsunspor+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Istanbul Basaksehir · Home
2.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-1
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 1.00
Samsunspor · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| Kasimpasa | D 1–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Kocaelispor | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 0 of 9 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Istanbul Basaksehir wins1 draws1 Samsunspor wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets83% · 33%
- 9 May 2026Istanbul Basaksehir3–0Samsunspor
- 14 Dec 2025Samsunspor0–2Istanbul Basaksehir
- 1 Feb 2025Istanbul Basaksehir4–0Samsunspor
- 18 Sep 2024Samsunspor2–0Istanbul Basaksehir
- 3 Mar 2024Istanbul Basaksehir1–0Samsunspor
- 22 Oct 2023Samsunspor0–0Istanbul Basaksehir
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 38% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.20 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.88 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 9.63 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.88 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.38 | 3.00 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 3/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Samsunspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 9.33 | 9.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 3.50 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Istanbul Basaksehir8 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Samsunspor8 games · scored 7 · conceded 19
1
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 17 · conceded 13
5
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Samsunspor10 games · scored 10 · conceded 22
1
6
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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