Fenerbahce vs Goztepe – 31 Oct 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 31 · 16:00 Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul

Fenerbahce 3rd · 16 pts · 8 played LDWWW

VS— Compare

Goztepe 13th · 9 pts · 8 played LDDWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce are clear favourites.

Fenerbahce are the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Goztepe. Fenerbahce have 4.9 days of rest, Goztepe 6 and have to travel 328 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel328 kmRest days4.9 · 6Matches / 14d3 · 2

Fenerbahce68%

Draw18%

Goztepe15%

Expected goals 2.59 – 1.15

Fenerbahce65%

Draw21%

Goztepe14%

Expected goals 2.08 – 0.86

Fenerbahce68%

Draw18%

Goztepe15%

Expected goals 2.59 – 1.15

Fenerbahce60%

Draw20%

Goztepe20%

Expected goals 2.31 – 1.29

Fenerbahce67%

Draw18%

Goztepe15%

Expected goals 2.56 – 1.18

Over 2.5 72% Both score 64% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İstanbul)

14°COvercast

Precipitation 20%
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 75%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Goztepe 6 Scoring in a row Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fenerbahce

Goztepe

64 L90 StrengthIn forecast 29

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 29

75 AttackIn forecast 39

53 DefenceIn forecast 36

65 Form indexContext 37

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fenerbahce

Attack−5%

Defense risk+7%

Goztepe

Attack−19%

Defense risk+62%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Fenerbahce

Goztepe

2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.13

0.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.72 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.58

+0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

88% Scored inContext 88%

63% Clean sheetsContext 13%

18.57 ShotsContext 15.25

7.71 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

42% On target shareContext 36%

13.43 Shots in the boxContext 11.25

70% Box shareContext 73%

17% ConversionContext 14%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.50

13.43 Shots allowedContext 15.38

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

3.29 BlocksContext 5.43

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71

79% Save rateContext 61%

53% PossessionIn forecast 41%

474 PassesContext 278

414 Accurate passesContext 198

87% Pass accuracyContext 71%

7.13 Team ratingContext 6.74

13.00 FoulsContext 14.88

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.75

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 2.63

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.57 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

1.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

80% Scored inContext 80%

50% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.11 ShotsContext 16.30

6.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

41% On target shareContext 34%

11.33 Shots in the boxContext 12.30

69% Box shareContext 74%

17% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.33 Shots allowedContext 14.80

6.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.56 BlocksContext 4.78

4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

74% Save rateContext 61%

49% PossessionIn forecast 40%

429 PassesContext 266

369 Accurate passesContext 190

86% Pass accuracyContext 71%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.74

12.89 FoulsContext 15.40

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fenerbahce DWWLW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · Alanyaspor3–02.3 xPts
L14 OctA · Aston Villa0–60.8 xPts
W10 OctA · Rizespor3–01.9 xPts
W20 SepH · Eyüpspor8–02.5 xPts
D14 SepA · Gazişehir Gaziantep0–01.9 xPts

Goztepe LDDWW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel328 km277 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 37 · 8 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W18 OctA · Kocaelispor2–11.4 xPts
W12 OctA · Eyüpspor4–01.6 xPts
D20 SepH · Rizespor2–21.4 xPts
D12 SepA · Alanyaspor2–21.2 xPts
L7 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–41.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fenerbahce	Goztepe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 26 Oct	6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	328 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	277 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fenerbahce Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Alanyaspor (H) 3–0, 17 Oct

31Ederson(G)

22M. Mercan 15N. Aké 37M. Škriniar 27Nélson Semedo

6M. Guendouzi 91N. Kanté

70O. Aydın 11M. Greenwood 17İ. Kahveci

9R. Lukaku

Goztepe Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-1-2 · vs Kocaelispor (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

1A. Özçimen(G)

26M. Bokele 19J. Sonko Sundberg 4T. Altıkardeş

12R. Akonnor 20N. Miroshi 5Rhaldney 2A. Kurtulan

8A. Antunes

9Juan 7André Henrique

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fenerbahce No reported absences

Goztepe No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Fenerbahce+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Goztepe+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fenerbahce · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 1.00

Goztepe · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 2.60
Conceded: 1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Fenerbahce	Goztepe
Alanyaspor	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 A
Rizespor	W 3–0 A	D 2–2 H
Eyüpspor	W 8–0 H	W 4–0 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	D 0–0 A	L 2–4 H
Samsunspor	W 2–0 A	D 3–3 A
Genclerbirligi	L 1–2 A	L 0–1 H
Points	13 of 18 · 2.17 per game	6 of 18 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Fenerbahce wins3 draws0 Goztepe wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored75% Clean sheets25% · 25%

25 Jan 2026Fenerbahce1–1Goztepe
16 Aug 2025Goztepe0–0Fenerbahce
26 Jan 2025Fenerbahce3–2Goztepe
17 Aug 2024Goztepe2–2Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fenerbahce	Goztepe	Forecast
Scored per game	2.75	2.13
Conceded per game	0.75	2.00
Match goals	3.50	4.13	3.74
Over 1.5	88%	88%
Over 2.5	75%	88%	72%
Over 3.5	25%	75%
Both teams scored	38%	75%	64%
Clean sheets	63%	13%
Failed to score	13%	13%
Games	8	8

	Fenerbahce	Goztepe	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.90
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	3.60	3.90	3.74
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	90%	72%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	50%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fenerbahce	Goztepe	League
Corners
Corners won	6.29	4.88
Corners conceded	3.14	4.38
Match total	9.43	9.26	9.12
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	50% 4/8
Cards
Cards	1.38	2.75
Opponent cards	1.38	2.00
Match total	2.76	4.75	4.04
Over 3.5	25% 2/8	88% 7/8
Over 4.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8

	Fenerbahce	Goztepe	League
Corners
Corners won	5.22	5.22
Corners conceded	4.22	4.56
Match total	9.44	9.78	9.12
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.80
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	3.30	4.90	4.04
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.