Liverpool vs Villarreal

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Tue, Oct 20 · 20:00 Anfield, Liverpool

Liverpool 5th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

Villarreal 14th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Liverpool are slight favourites.

Liverpool are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Villarreal. Villarreal are without N. Pépé. Liverpool have 3.2 days of rest, Villarreal 3.2 and have to travel 1,514 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,514 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

Liverpool57%

Draw22%

Villarreal21%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.24

Liverpool58%

Draw23%

Villarreal18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.95

Liverpool57%

Draw22%

Villarreal21%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.26

Liverpool49%

Draw23%

Villarreal28%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.39

Liverpool57%

Draw22%

Villarreal21%

Expected goals 2.07 – 1.21

Over 2.5 66% Both score 63% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 44 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Liverpool)

11°COvercast

Precipitation 85%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 95%

RefereeSzymon Marciniak

Cards per match 4.1
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 83

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Liverpool

Villarreal

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

84 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

85 AttackIn forecast 76

84 DefenceIn forecast 73

87 Form indexContext 79

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack+2%

Defense risk+5%

Villarreal

Attack−25%

Defense risk+42%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Liverpool

Villarreal

4.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.39

+1.51 Goals minus xGContext +1.14

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

20.00 ShotsContext 15.00

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

35% On target shareContext 33%

16.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

81% Box shareContext 58%

20% ConversionContext 17%

4.50 OffsidesContext 3.00

10.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

1.00 BlocksContext 4.50

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

50% Save rateContext 67%

55% PossessionIn forecast 50%

496 PassesContext 487

438 Accurate passesContext 415

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.28 Team ratingContext 6.77

7.50 FoulsContext 9.00

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

0.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.89 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.52

80% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.40 ShotsContext 16.50

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

33% On target shareContext 36%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

62% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.90

11.50 Shots allowedContext 12.00

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

3.20 BlocksContext 4.63

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.29

62% Save rateContext 72%

56% PossessionIn forecast 59%

487 PassesContext 560

417 Accurate passesContext 493

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.10 FoulsContext 10.40

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool DWLWW

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,228 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected

W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest3.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,514 km621 km in 14d

Schedule load43%High

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Liverpool	Villarreal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 17 Oct	3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,514 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,228 km	621 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	2 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.8	3.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct

1A. Becker(G)

6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo

8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister

29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz

9A. Isak

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Liverpool Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −6.3% · Defence line −4.0% of weighted minutes

ATT H. Ekitiké Rotation 6.88 Att −5.7%
DEF J. Frimpong Rotation 6.74 Def −2.7%
DEF C. Bradley Rotation 6.72 Def −1.3%
ATT F. Chiesa Depth 6.52 Att −0.5%
MID W. Endō Depth 6.80 Att −0.1% Def −0.1%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): G. Leoni

Villarreal Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −19.2% · Defence line −2.2% of weighted minutes

ATT N. Pépé Starter 7.08 Att −16.3%
MID T. Buchanan Rotation 6.66 Att −2.9% Def −2.2%

Total impact vs full squads

Liverpool+0.3 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Villarreal-0.2 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Villarreal · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Liverpool wins0 draws0 Villarreal wins

Goals per game2.50 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

3 May 2022Villarreal2–3Liverpool
27 Apr 2022Liverpool2–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Liverpool	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	4.00	2.50
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	6.00	4.50	3.38
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	66%
Over 3.5	50%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	63%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Liverpool	Villarreal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.30	1.50
Match goals	3.10	3.10	3.38
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	66%
Over 3.5	30%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	70%	63%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Liverpool	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	5.50
Corners conceded	4.00	6.50
Match total	13.00	12.00	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	0.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	1.50	4.50	3.80
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	100% 2/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Liverpool	Villarreal	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	6.50
Corners conceded	4.10	4.70
Match total	10.70	11.20	9.71
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	2.20	2.90
Match total	4.40	4.60	3.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Szymon Marciniak 83 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.01league 3.64

Red cards0.12league 0.14

Cards 5+41%league 36%

Fouls23.9league 23.0

Penalties0.35league 0.28

Home wins54%league 58%

Liverpool3 with this referee

Record3-0-0 Cards · opp.0.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W27 Apr 22H · Villarreal2–01
W16 Feb 22A · Inter2–00
W15 Sep 21H · AC Milan3–21

Villarreal2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against2 · 0

L27 Apr 22A · Liverpool0–22
W16 Mar 22A · Juventus3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.