UEFA Champions League Matchday 6 Wed, Dec 9 · 20:00 Anfield, Liverpool
Liverpool 5th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
FC Porto 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,427 kmRest days4.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d4 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Liverpool—%
Draw—%
FC Porto—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Liverpool)

Forecast from 24 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Liverpool and FC Porto. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LiverpoolFC Porto
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
84 Current StrengthIn forecast 80
85 AttackIn forecast 74
84 DefenceIn forecast 79
87 Form indexContext 84
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Liverpool

Attack—
Defense risk—

FC Porto

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LiverpoolFC Porto
4.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
2.49 xGVia Att/Def 0.55
1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+1.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
20.00 ShotsContext 8.00
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
35% On target shareContext 31%
16.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
81% Box shareContext 75%
20% ConversionContext 13%
4.50 OffsidesContext —
10.50 Shots allowedContext 18.50
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.50
1.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 6.00
50% Save rateContext 71%
55% PossessionIn forecast 40%
496 PassesContext 373
438 Accurate passesContext 303
88% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.28 Team ratingContext 6.62
7.50 FoulsContext 12.50
8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50
0.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.90
1.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.75
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
-0.09 Goals minus xGContext +0.45
80% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
17.40 ShotsContext 14.60
5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.33
33% On target shareContext 39%
11.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
62% Box shareContext 72%
10% ConversionContext 15%
2.50 OffsidesContext 3.25
11.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90
3.20 BlocksContext 2.80
2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90
62% Save rateContext 74%
56% PossessionIn forecast 52%
487 PassesContext 416
417 Accurate passesContext 351
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.99 Team ratingContext 6.96
12.10 FoulsContext 13.60
9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50
2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Liverpool
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km1,548 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
Form 87 · 10 pts vs 4.7 for an average club · +2.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Brentford2–11.3 xPts
  • W14 OctA · Lask Linz6–31.8 xPts
  • L11 OctH · Manchester City0–31.3 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Bournemouth1–01.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Fulham0–02.0 xPts
FC Porto
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,427 km3,020 km in 14d
Schedule load30%Moderate
Form 84 · 12 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • L14 OctA · Real Betis2–31.4 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Maritimo2–12.4 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Benfica3–11.4 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Casa Pia4–12.3 xPts
  • W4 SepH · Moreirense2–12.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Liverpool FC Porto
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 40Moderate · 30
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec3.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,427 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,548 km3,020 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 51 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one2.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Liverpool Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Brentford (A) 2–1, 17 Oct
1A. Becker(G)
6M. Kerkez 4V. van Dijk 5J. Jacquet 33R. Araujo
8D. Szoboszlai 10A. Mac Allister
29B. Barcola 7F. Wirtz 23Víctor Muñoz
9A. Isak
FC Porto Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Real Betis (A) 2–3, 14 Oct
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura 4J. Kiwior 13P. Rosario 52Martim Fernandes
10Gabri Veiga 22A. Varela 8V. Froholdt
11Pepê 19André Silva 17Borja Sainz

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Liverpool Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Porto Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Liverpool · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
FC Porto · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Liverpool wins0 draws0 FC Porto wins
Goals per game3.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 24 Nov 2021Liverpool2–0FC Porto
  • 28 Sep 2021FC Porto1–5Liverpool

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LiverpoolFC PortoForecast
Scored per game 4.001.00
Conceded per game 2.002.50
Match goals 6.003.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
LiverpoolFC PortoForecast
Scored per game 1.802.20
Conceded per game 1.300.90
Match goals 3.103.10
Over 1.5 80%100%
Over 2.5 60%60%
Over 3.5 30%30%
Both teams scored 60%50%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 20%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LiverpoolFC PortoLeague
Corners
Corners won9.001.50
Corners conceded4.005.00
Match total13.006.509.71
Over 8.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 9.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Over 10.5100% 2/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards0.502.00
Opponent cards1.003.50
Match total1.505.503.80
Over 3.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
LiverpoolFC PortoLeague
Corners
Corners won6.605.70
Corners conceded4.103.90
Match total10.709.609.71
Over 8.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 9.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 10.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards2.201.20
Opponent cards2.202.40
Match total4.403.603.80
Over 3.560% 6/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Liverpool2 games · scored 8 · conceded 4
0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
2 2 61-75
1 76-90
FC Porto2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 76-90
Liverpool10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
2 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 1 31-45
6 1 46-60
4 6 61-75
2 2 76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 22 · conceded 9
3 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
5 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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