Manchester City
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester City
2nd · 59 pts · 28 played
DWWWW
2–2Full time
Nottingham Forest
17th · 27 pts · 28 played
DLDLL
Our take
Manchester City were clear favourites.
Manchester City were the stronger side on L90 Strength (90 vs 64). Nottingham Forest come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Manchester City had 4.1 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 3.2 and had to travel 93 km.
Away travel93 kmRest days4.1 · 3.2Matches / 14d2 · 4
Manchester City73%
Draw16%
Nottingham Forest10%
Manchester City67%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest13%
Manchester City74%
Draw16%
Nottingham Forest10%
Manchester City66%
Draw19%
Nottingham Forest14%
Manchester City67%
Draw20%
Nottingham Forest13%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeDarren England
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 116
Team strength
Manchester CityNottingham Forest
90
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
91
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
92
AttackIn forecast
68
82
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester CityNottingham Forest
2.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.93
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
86%
Scored inContext
54%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.21
ShotsContext
13.00
5.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.07
36%
On target shareContext
30%
10.39
Shots in the boxContext
7.79
73%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
7%
1.76
OffsidesContext
2.10
10.11
Shots allowedContext
12.57
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.18
3.00
BlocksContext
4.48
2.61
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.74
75%
Save rateContext
64%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
573
PassesContext
419
505
Accurate passesContext
347
88%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.11
Team ratingContext
6.83
10.11
FoulsContext
10.96
11.39
Fouls sufferedContext
11.85
1.93
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.90
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
90%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.90
ShotsContext
16.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
37%
On target shareContext
30%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
68%
Box shareContext
60%
18%
ConversionContext
8%
1.78
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.90
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
3.00
BlocksContext
2.89
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.44
73%
Save rateContext
69%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
606
PassesContext
412
542
Accurate passesContext
341
90%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.12
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.30
FoulsContext
11.60
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester City
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nottingham Forest
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel93 km5,713 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester City |
Nottingham Forest |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | High · 53 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.1Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 3.2Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 93 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 115 km | 5,713 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 10 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester City
Confirmed XI
25G. Donnarumma(G)
21R. Aït-Nouri
15A. Guéhi
3Rúben Dias
27M. Nunes
16Rodri
10M. Cherki
20Bernardo Silva
47P. Foden
42A. Semenyo
9E. Haaland
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
23Jair
34T. Aina
8E. Anderson
6I. Sangaré
16N. Domínguez
19Igor Jesus
10M. Gibbs-White
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester City
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester City-0.4 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Nottingham Forest+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester City · Home
2.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 11-2-1
- Scored
- 2.43
- Conceded
- 0.64
Nottingham Forest · Away
1.00points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-8
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester City | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Newcastle | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Fulham | W 3–0 HW 5–4 A | L 0–1 A |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Tottenham | D 2–2 AL 0–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Wolves | W 2–0 HW 4–0 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Manchester United | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Brighton | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Chelsea | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Sunderland | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| West Ham | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Crystal Palace | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Bournemouth | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Everton | W 2–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Brentford | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Burnley | W 5–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Arsenal | D 1–1 A | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 56 of 81 · 2.07 per game | 27 of 81 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Manchester City wins1 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game2.29 – 0.43
Over 2.543%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets57% · 14%
- 27 Dec 2025Nottingham Forest1–2Manchester City
- 8 Mar 2025Nottingham Forest1–0Manchester City
- 4 Dec 2024Manchester City3–0Nottingham Forest
- 28 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest0–2Manchester City
- 23 Sep 2023Manchester City2–0Nottingham Forest
- 18 Feb 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Manchester City
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.04 | 0.93 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 2.39 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 39% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 46% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 3.43 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.04 | 4.61 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 10.22 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 17/27 | 79% 22/28 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 12/27 | 64% 18/28 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 8/27 | 46% 13/28 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 1.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 1.86 | |
| Match total | 3.97 | 3.32 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 61% 17/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 11/28 | 21% 6/28 | |
| Manchester City | Nottingham Forest | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 9.80 | 10.01 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.00 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Darren England 116 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.20league 3.76
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+42%league 39%
Fouls22.3league 21.5
Penalties0.28league 0.21
Home wins44%league 43%
Manchester City11 with this referee
Record10-0-1
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against4 · 2
Reds1
- W14 Dec 25A · Crystal Palace3–00
- W5 Oct 25A · Brentford1–02
- L31 Aug 25A · Brighton1–22
- W2 Apr 25H · Leicester2–01
- W3 Apr 24H · Aston Villa4–11
Nottingham Forest7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D1 Nov 25H · Manchester United2–21
- L13 Sep 25A · Arsenal0–31
- L1 May 25H · Brentford0–23
- W7 Dec 24A · Manchester United3–22
- D16 Mar 24A · Luton1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester City28 games · scored 57 · conceded 25
8
0-15
8
3
16-30
17
4
31-45
6
5
46-60
10
8
61-75
8
5
76-90
Nottingham Forest28 games · scored 26 · conceded 41
6
5
0-15
1
5
16-30
3
10
31-45
7
7
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
13
76-90
Manchester City10 games · scored 25 · conceded 10
5
0-15
5
3
16-30
6
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
