Manchester United
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Manchester United
4th · 48 pts · 27 played
WWWDW
2–1Full time
Crystal Palace
13th · 35 pts · 27 played
LDWLW
Manchester United58.1%fair odds 1.72
Draw23.3%fair odds 4.29
Crystal Palace18.6%fair odds 5.38
Expected goals1.89 – 0.98total 2.86
Likeliest score1–111.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Crystal Palace
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Manchester United ↓ · Crystal Palace → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Manchester United goals, columns Crystal Palace goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.1%9.02
- 1–010.2%9.78
- 2–010.2%9.84
- 2–19.9%10.08
- 3–06.4%15.65
- 0–06.3%15.92
- 3–16.2%16.04
- 1–25.1%19.47
- 0–15.0%19.90
- 2–24.8%20.66
Winning margin
16.4%
Manchester United by 3+
fair 6.11
18.0%
Manchester United by 2
fair 5.55
23.7%
Manchester United by 1
fair 4.22
23.3%
Draw
fair 4.29
12.0%
Crystal Palace by 1
fair 8.33
4.8%
Crystal Palace by 2
fair 20.71
1.8%
Crystal Palace by 3+
fair 57.06
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Manchester United goals
15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Crystal Palace goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United win | 58.1% | 56.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Draw | 23.3% | 24.7% | -1.4 pp |
| Crystal Palace win | 18.6% | 18.8% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 49.4% | +5.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.4% | 49.8% | +3.6 pp |
| Expected goals Manchester United | 1.89 | 1.74 | +0.14 |
| Expected goals Crystal Palace | 0.98 | 0.91 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Manchester United win58.1%1.72
- Draw23.3%4.29
- Crystal Palace win18.6%5.38
- Double chance Manchester United or draw81.4%1.23
- Double chance Manchester United or Crystal Palace76.7%1.30
- Double chance Crystal Palace or draw41.9%2.39
- Draw no bet Manchester United75.8%1.32
- Draw no bet Crystal Palace24.2%4.13
Goals
- Over 0.593.7%1.07
- Over 1.578.5%1.27
- Over 2.554.5%1.84
- Over 3.532.2%3.11
- Over 4.516.2%6.18
- Under 1.521.5%4.64
- Under 2.545.5%2.20
- Under 3.567.8%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes53.4%1.87
- No46.6%2.15
- Yes and over 2.542.3%2.36
- Manchester United win and yes26.7%3.75
- Draw and yes17.0%5.87
- Crystal Palace win and yes9.7%10.33
Team goals
- Manchester United over 0.584.8%1.18
- Manchester United over 1.556.2%1.78
- Manchester United over 2.529.2%3.42
- Crystal Palace over 0.562.3%1.60
- Crystal Palace over 1.525.5%3.92
- Crystal Palace over 2.57.6%13.18
- Manchester United clean sheet37.7%2.65
- Crystal Palace clean sheet15.2%6.59
- Manchester United win to nil31.4%3.18
- Crystal Palace win to nil8.9%11.23
Handicap
- Manchester United −1.534.4%2.91
- Manchester United −2.516.4%6.11
- Crystal Palace +1.565.6%1.52
- Crystal Palace +2.583.6%1.20
- Crystal Palace −1.56.6%15.19
- Manchester United +1.593.4%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored277
Favourite won49.5%
Avg chance given to result39.2%
1X2 Brier0.621
Over 2.5 called right53.4%
BTTS called right55.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 38 | 38.2% | 39.5% |
| 40–50% | 101 | 44.9% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 78 | 54.7% | 51.3% |
| 60–70% | 35 | 64.3% | 57.1% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 73.6% | 59.1% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 82.8% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 241 of 277 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6256 | 0.6113 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.9% |
| Favourite won | 48.5% | 50.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 241 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 277 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.