Manchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Manchester United
4th · 48 pts · 27 played
WWWDW
2–1Full time
Crystal Palace
13th · 35 pts · 27 played
LDWLW
Our take
Manchester United were slight favourites.
Manchester United were the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 64). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Manchester United. Manchester United had 5.8 days of rest, Crystal Palace 7 and had to travel 262 km.
Away travel262 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Manchester United58%
Draw23%
Crystal Palace19%
Manchester United55%
Draw24%
Crystal Palace21%
Manchester United59%
Draw23%
Crystal Palace18%
Manchester United51%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace24%
Manchester United57%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace19%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)
No weather data yet
RefereeChris Kavanagh
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 154
Team strength
Manchester UnitedCrystal Palace
79
L90 StrengthIn forecast
64
77
Current StrengthIn forecast
64
72
AttackIn forecast
64
80
DefenceIn forecast
54
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCrystal Palace
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Manchester UnitedCrystal Palace
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.37
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
89%
Scored inContext
70%
19%
Clean sheetsContext
37%
15.85
ShotsContext
11.89
5.59
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
35%
On target shareContext
32%
10.69
Shots in the boxContext
8.85
66%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.22
10.96
Shots allowedContext
11.22
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.19
3.68
BlocksContext
2.96
2.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
64%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
468
PassesContext
390
388
Accurate passesContext
303
83%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.62
FoulsContext
10.48
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.15
1.37
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
100%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.60
ShotsContext
12.20
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
37%
On target shareContext
33%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.90
67%
Box shareContext
74%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
3.43
OffsidesContext
2.75
10.40
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
4.10
BlocksContext
2.56
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
70%
Save rateContext
71%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
501
PassesContext
481
426
Accurate passesContext
390
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.81
8.80
FoulsContext
12.10
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Manchester United
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Crystal Palace
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel262 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Manchester United |
Crystal Palace |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Premier League 2025-2026, 23 Feb | 7Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 262 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.3 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
2Diogo Dalot
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
19B. Mbeumo
30B. Šeško
Crystal Palace
Confirmed XI
1D. Henderson(G)
23J. Canvot
5M. Lacroix
26Chris Richards
3T. Mitchell
18Daichi Kamada
20A. Wharton
2D. Muñoz
11B. Johnson
7I. Sarr
22J. Strand Larsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Manchester United
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Crystal Palace
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Manchester United-0.8 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Crystal Palace+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Manchester United · Home
2.08points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-2
- Scored
- 1.92
- Conceded
- 1.15
Crystal Palace · Away
1.54points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-5
- Scored
- 1.15
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Manchester United | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| West Ham | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fulham | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A | D 1–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Arsenal | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Manchester City | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| Burnley | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Leeds | D 1–1 A | L 1–4 A |
| Wolves | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Newcastle | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Aston Villa | L 1–2 A | D 0–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Bournemouth | D 4–4 H | D 3–3 H |
| Nottingham Forest | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Brighton | W 4–2 H | W 1–0 AD 0–0 H |
| Liverpool | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Brentford | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Chelsea | W 2–1 H | L 1–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 45 of 78 · 1.73 per game | 35 of 78 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
3 Manchester United wins3 draws4 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game0.60 – 1.10
Over 2.530%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 60%
- 30 Nov 2025Crystal Palace1–2Manchester United
- 2 Feb 2025Manchester United0–2Crystal Palace
- 21 Sep 2024Crystal Palace0–0Manchester United
- 6 May 2024Crystal Palace4–0Manchester United
- 30 Sep 2023Manchester United0–1Crystal Palace
- 4 Feb 2023Manchester United2–1Crystal Palace
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Manchester United | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.37 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 3.15 | 2.26 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 44% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 48% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 19% | 37% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 30% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Manchester United | Crystal Palace | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.10 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 30% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Manchester United | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.23 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.27 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.08 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 15/26 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 8/26 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.41 | 2.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.22 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 4.08 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 14/27 | 70% 19/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Manchester United | Crystal Palace | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 3.33 | |
| Match total | 9.34 | 8.33 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.70 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Chris Kavanagh 154 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.76
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+36%league 39%
Fouls21.8league 21.4
Penalties0.23league 0.21
Home wins39%league 42%
Manchester United13 with this referee
Record8-2-3
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against3 · 1
Reds1
- D24 Aug 25A · Fulham1–11
- L16 May 25A · Chelsea0–16
- L29 Sep 24H · Tottenham0–36
- W28 Feb 24A · Nottingham Forest1–01
- W6 Dec 23H · Chelsea2–14
Crystal Palace8 with this referee
Record5-2-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Sep 25H · Liverpool2–11
- W11 May 25A · Tottenham2–01
- W14 Apr 24A · Liverpool1–01
- D30 Mar 24A · Nottingham Forest1–11
- W30 Sep 23A · Manchester United1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Manchester United27 games · scored 48 · conceded 37
4
3
0-15
7
4
16-30
9
5
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
6
61-75
13
11
76-90
Crystal Palace27 games · scored 29 · conceded 32
1
2
0-15
5
16-30
8
12
31-45
1
5
46-60
7
5
61-75
7
8
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
