Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Newcastle
13th · 36 pts · 28 played
LLWLL
2–1Full time
Manchester United
3rd · 51 pts · 28 played
WWDWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Manchester United. Newcastle had 4.2 days of rest, Manchester United 3.3 and had to travel 171 km.
Away travel171 kmRest days4.2 · 3.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Newcastle38%
Draw24%
Manchester United38%
Newcastle42%
Draw27%
Manchester United31%
Newcastle38%
Draw24%
Manchester United38%
Newcastle30%
Draw23%
Manchester United47%
Newcastle37%
Draw25%
Manchester United38%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 66%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
No weather data yet
RefereePeter Bankes
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.14
- Matches 120
Team strength
NewcastleManchester United
78
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
61
AttackIn forecast
72
61
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisManchester United
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleManchester United
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.36
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
1.75
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
75%
Scored inContext
89%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
13.36
ShotsContext
16.00
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.79
35%
On target shareContext
36%
8.64
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
63%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.21
OffsidesContext
2.09
11.32
Shots allowedContext
10.86
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.61
3.52
BlocksContext
3.62
2.85
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.52
67%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
456
PassesContext
473
382
Accurate passesContext
393
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.98
10.07
FoulsContext
9.74
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.04
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.39
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.64
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.89
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
90%
Scored inContext
100%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.10
ShotsContext
16.10
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
38%
On target shareContext
39%
10.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
68%
Box shareContext
65%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.14
OffsidesContext
3.14
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.20
BlocksContext
4.10
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
64%
Save rateContext
69%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
443
PassesContext
511
371
Accurate passesContext
433
84%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.80
FoulsContext
9.20
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km342 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Manchester United
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel171 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Manchester United |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Premier League 2025-2026, 28 Feb | 3.3Premier League 2025-2026, 1 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 171 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 342 km | 99 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.9 | 10.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
32A. Ramsdale(G)
3L. Hall
33D. Burn
12M. Thiaw
2K. Trippier
7Joelinton
8S. Tonali
41J. Ramsey
11H. Barnes
10A. Gordon
20A. Elanga
Manchester United
Confirmed XI
31S. Lammens(G)
23L. Shaw
5J. Maguire
15L. Yoro
3N. Mazraoui
37K. Mainoo
18Casemiro
10Matheus Cunha
8Bruno Fernandes
19B. Mbeumo
30B. Šeško
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Manchester United
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Newcastle-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Manchester United+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.64points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-5
- Scored
- 1.86
- Conceded
- 1.64
Manchester United · Away
1.50points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-3
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| Manchester City | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A |
| Tottenham | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | W 2–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Brentford | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Liverpool | L 1–4 AL 2–3 H | W 2–1 A |
| Aston Villa | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Wolves | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HW 4–1 A |
| Leeds | W 4–3 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Crystal Palace | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Burnley | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Chelsea | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Sunderland | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| West Ham | L 1–3 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fulham | W 2–1 H | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Brighton | L 1–2 A | W 4–2 H |
| Nottingham Forest | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Arsenal | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H |
| Bournemouth | D 0–0 A | D 4–4 H |
| Points | 36 of 81 · 1.33 per game | 48 of 81 · 1.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
4 Newcastle wins2 draws4 Manchester United wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 26 Dec 2025Manchester United1–0Newcastle
- 13 Apr 2025Newcastle4–1Manchester United
- 30 Dec 2024Manchester United0–2Newcastle
- 15 May 2024Manchester United3–2Newcastle
- 2 Dec 2023Newcastle1–0Manchester United
- 2 Apr 2023Newcastle2–0Manchester United
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.36 | |
| Match goals | 2.93 | 3.14 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 57% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 39% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 71% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 11% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Newcastle | Manchester United | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.80 | 3.32 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 66% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.86 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 11.82 | 9.44 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 23/28 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 68% 19/28 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 16/28 | 30% 8/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.36 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.07 | 3.68 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 16/28 | 54% 15/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 10/28 | 39% 11/28 | |
| Newcastle | Manchester United | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.80 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 8.89 | 9.99 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.40 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Peter Bankes 120 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.06league 3.78
Red cards0.11league 0.12
Cards 5+43%league 39%
Fouls21.5league 21.5
Penalties0.14league 0.21
Home wins51%league 42%
Newcastle15 with this referee
Record4-5-6
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.1
Pens for · against3 · 2
- L14 Dec 25A · Sunderland0–14
- W25 Oct 25H · Fulham2–10
- W5 Oct 25H · Nottingham Forest2–00
- D30 Aug 25A · Leeds0–01
- W2 Apr 25H · Brentford2–11
Manchester United9 with this referee
Record3-1-5
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W20 Sep 25H · Chelsea2–12
- D27 Apr 25A · Bournemouth1–12
- L16 Feb 25A · Tottenham0–12
- L19 Jan 25H · Brighton1–33
- W10 Nov 24H · Leicester3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Newcastle28 games · scored 40 · conceded 42
5
1
0-15
7
5
16-30
8
11
31-45
4
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
11
15
76-90
Manchester United28 games · scored 50 · conceded 38
4
4
0-15
7
4
16-30
9
5
31-45
10
8
46-60
7
6
61-75
13
11
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 21 · conceded 19
5
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
5
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
