UEFA Champions League Matchday 5 Tue, Nov 24 · 20:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
Real Madrid 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
PSV Eindhoven 26th · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,414 kmRest days2.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Real Madrid—%
Draw—%
PSV Eindhoven—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Madrid)

Forecast from 9 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid and PSV Eindhoven. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Real MadridPSV Eindhoven
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
89 Current StrengthIn forecast 71
89 AttackIn forecast 60
85 DefenceIn forecast 64
91 Form indexContext 32
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

PSV Eindhoven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Real MadridPSV Eindhoven
3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.00 ShotsContext 9.50
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
50% On target shareContext 37%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
78% Box shareContext 51%
19% ConversionContext 5%
1.50 OffsidesContext 3.00
17.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.00 BlocksContext 4.50
5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
79% Save rateContext 88%
41% PossessionIn forecast 56%
405 PassesContext 430
345 Accurate passesContext 367
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.68
10.00 FoulsContext 13.00
12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
2.32 xGVia Att/Def 2.27
1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.33
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 10%
16.90 ShotsContext 17.30
7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50
43% On target shareContext 38%
12.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
71% Box shareContext 67%
16% ConversionContext 15%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.22
14.20 Shots allowedContext 11.70
5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
3.80 BlocksContext 3.56
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
75% Save rateContext 71%
50% PossessionIn forecast 58%
501 PassesContext 526
446 Accurate passesContext 464
89% Pass accuracyContext 88%
7.13 Team ratingContext 6.95
8.90 FoulsContext 10.50
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid
Rest2.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
PSV Eindhoven
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,414 km103 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
  • L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Real Madrid PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.2La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Nov3.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 21 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,414 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km103 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 41 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one4.83.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé
PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct
32M. Kovář(G)
18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest
17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano
35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man
21S. Mijnans

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
PSV Eindhoven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
PSV Eindhoven · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Real MadridPSV EindhovenForecast
Scored per game 3.000.50
Conceded per game 2.001.00
Match goals 5.001.50
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%0%
Over 3.5 50%0%
Both teams scored 100%50%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Real MadridPSV EindhovenForecast
Scored per game 2.702.60
Conceded per game 1.201.20
Match goals 3.903.80
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%70%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 70%80%
Clean sheets 20%10%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Real MadridPSV EindhovenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.506.00
Corners conceded8.004.00
Match total14.5010.009.71
Over 8.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 9.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 10.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.002.50
Opponent cards3.003.50
Match total4.006.003.80
Over 3.5100% 2/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Real MadridPSV EindhovenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.305.44
Corners conceded5.003.89
Match total11.309.339.71
Over 8.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 9.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 10.570% 7/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.201.90
Opponent cards2.502.40
Match total4.704.303.80
Over 3.580% 8/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Real Madrid2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
PSV Eindhoven2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 26 · conceded 12
4 4 0-15
5 1 16-30
5 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
6 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

View all fixtures →
Bodo/Glimt Lask Linz Nov 2417:45 Galatasaray Aston Villa Nov 2417:45 Arsenal Borussia Dortmund Nov 2420:00 Manchester City Napoli Nov 2420:00 RB Leipzig Lens Nov 2420:00 Feyenoord FC Porto Nov 2420:00 Real Madrid PSV Eindhoven Nov 2420:00 Slovan Bratislava Real Betis Nov 2420:00 Como AEK Athens FC Nov 2420:00 Slavia Praha Villarreal Nov 2517:45 Sabah FA Barcelona Nov 2517:45 Lille Bayern München Nov 2520:00 Paris Saint Germain AS Roma Nov 2520:00 Sporting CP Manchester United Nov 2520:00 Inter VfB Stuttgart Nov 2520:00 Atletico Madrid Viking Nov 2520:00 Shakhtar Donetsk Fenerbahce Nov 2520:00 Club Brugge KV Liverpool Nov 2520:00