SC Freiburg vs Genk – 19 Mar 2026

UEFA Europa League Round of 16 Thu, Mar 19 · 17:45 Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau

SC Freiburg 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

First leg0–1 5–1Full time

Genk 6th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

SC Freiburg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genk. SC Freiburg had 4.1 days of rest, Genk 4.2 and had to travel 371 km.

Away travel371 kmRest days4.1 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3

SC Freiburg40%

Draw28%

Genk32%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.22

SC Freiburg49%

Draw26%

Genk25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

SC Freiburg39%

Draw28%

Genk33%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.21

SC Freiburg33%

Draw28%

Genk39%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.36

SC Freiburg40%

Draw28%

Genk32%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.17

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Freiburg im Breisgau)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 200

Team strength

SC Freiburg

Genk

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44

64 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

63 AttackIn forecast 46

73 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Freiburg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

SC Freiburg

Genk

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.10

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

40% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.50 ShotsContext 14.00

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

34% On target shareContext 39%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.30

66% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 14%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.56

15.60 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

5.10 BlocksContext 3.60

3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

72% Save rateContext 71%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

351 PassesContext 462

282 Accurate passesContext 386

80% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.93

8.60 FoulsContext 9.70

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Freiburg

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km742 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Genk

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel371 km164 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Freiburg	Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Bundesliga 2025-2026, 15 Mar	4.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	371 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	742 km	164 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Freiburg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Atubolu(G)

33J. Makengo 43B. Ogbus 28M. Ginter 29P. Treu

44J. Manzambi 8M. Eggestein

32V. Grifo 14Y. Suzuki 19J. Beste

31I. Matanović

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Genk Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

26T. Lawal(G)

18J. Kayembe 6M. Smets 44J. Kongolo 27K. Nkuba

21I. Bangoura

32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 38D. Heymans 8B. Heynen 20K. Karetsas

23A. Bibout

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Freiburg Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Genk Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

SC Freiburg+1.4 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Genk-1.0 pp

Home / Away this season

SC Freiburg · Home No home games yet this season.

Genk · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

0 SC Freiburg wins0 draws1 Genk wins

Goals per game0.00 – 1.00 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets0% · 100%

12 Mar 2026Genk1–0SC Freiburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	SC Freiburg	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	0.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.59
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	53%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	100%	0%
Games	1	1

	SC Freiburg	Genk	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.90
Conceded per game	1.40	1.20
Match goals	2.20	3.10	2.59
Over 1.5	50%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	70%	48%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	53%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	60%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Freiburg	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.00
Corners conceded	5.00	7.00
Match total	12.00	12.00	8.50
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	1.00
Match total	2.00	2.00	3.88
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	SC Freiburg	Genk	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.80
Corners conceded	4.90	6.00
Match total	9.30	10.80	8.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.40
Opponent cards	1.90	1.60
Match total	3.30	3.00	3.88
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.65league 3.89

Red cards0.13league 0.33

Cards 5+34%league 56%

Fouls22.4league 25.8

Penalties0.23league 0.11

Home wins42%league 44%

SC Freiburg

No previous matches with this referee.

Genk

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.