Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 7 · 15:30 Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard

Fortuna Sittard 6th · 15 pts · 9 played WLWDD

VS— Compare

Telstar 16th · 6 pts · 9 played LDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fortuna Sittard are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Fortuna Sittard. Fortuna Sittard have 7 days of rest, Telstar 6.1 and have to travel 183 km.

Away travel183 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw25%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.40

Fortuna Sittard42%

Draw27%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw25%

Telstar31%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.40

Fortuna Sittard37%

Draw25%

Telstar38%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.57

Fortuna Sittard45%

Draw24%

Telstar30%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.40

Over 2.5 60% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sittard)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fortuna Sittard 6 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fortuna Sittard

Telstar

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

19 AttackIn forecast 24

19 DefenceIn forecast 13

45 Form indexContext 11

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fortuna Sittard

Attack+12%

Defense risk−13%

Telstar

Attack+10%

Defense risk−16%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Fortuna Sittard

Telstar

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.93 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

2.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.40

+0.85 Goals minus xGContext -0.59

89% Scored inContext 56%

11% Clean sheetsContext 11%

10.00 ShotsContext 12.00

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.11

44% On target shareContext 26%

5.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.14

57% Box shareContext 62%

18% ConversionContext 9%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.86

19.33 Shots allowedContext 16.78

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67

5.22 BlocksContext 5.25

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.13

71% Save rateContext 71%

35% PossessionIn forecast 45%

316 PassesContext 400

243 Accurate passesContext 323

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.70

9.22 FoulsContext 10.44

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89

1.44 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.65

2.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.16

+0.76 Goals minus xGContext -0.45

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

10.20 ShotsContext 11.50

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

41% On target shareContext 26%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.75

53% Box shareContext 63%

16% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

19.20 Shots allowedContext 16.60

6.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

5.20 BlocksContext 5.33

4.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.33

71% Save rateContext 73%

36% PossessionIn forecast 46%

318 PassesContext 394

245 Accurate passesContext 314

77% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.72

9.10 FoulsContext 11.20

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fortuna Sittard WLWDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

D18 OctA · NEC Nijmegen2–20.9 xPts
D10 OctH · Twente1–10.9 xPts
W19 SepA · Willem II1–01.4 xPts
L12 SepH · Ajax1–50.9 xPts
W6 SepA · ADO Den Haag3–21.3 xPts

Telstar LDLDL

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel183 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

L17 OctH · Feyenoord3–40.7 xPts
D11 OctH · ADO Den Haag2–21.9 xPts
L20 SepA · AZ Alkmaar0–10.5 xPts
D13 SepA · Heerenveen0–01.1 xPts
L9 SepA · Twente0–10.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	183 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	282 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15	14.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fortuna Sittard Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

31M. Branderhorst(G)

28J. Hubner 23P. Brittijn 3R. Guth 6S. van Ottele 12Ivo Pinto

22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 14S. Simons

25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte

Telstar Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Feyenoord (H) 3–4, 17 Oct

1R. Koeman(G)

43M. Peersman 4A. Soualhia 16S. Valk 3G. Alders

17N. Rossen 10T. Owusu 23N. Shenkman

27P. Brouwer 11N. Þórisson 42A. Martha

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fortuna Sittard No reported absences

Telstar No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Telstar+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fortuna Sittard · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.25

Telstar · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 0.50
Conceded: 0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Twente	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Ajax	L 1–5 H	L 0–4 H
ADO Den Haag	W 3–2 A	D 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Cambuur	W 3–1 H	D 2–2 H
Points	8 of 18 · 1.33 per game	5 of 18 · 0.83 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Fortuna Sittard wins0 draws1 Telstar wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

8 Mar 2026Fortuna Sittard1–4Telstar
14 Sep 2025Telstar1–3Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.11
Conceded per game	1.89	2.00
Match goals	3.67	3.11	3.12
Over 1.5	89%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	60%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	78%	56%	62%
Clean sheets	11%	11%
Failed to score	11%	44%
Games	9	9

	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.20
Conceded per game	1.90	1.90
Match goals	3.50	3.10	3.12
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	60%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	62%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.33	4.13
Corners conceded	8.67	6.75
Match total	12.00	10.88	10.39
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.56	1.56
Opponent cards	1.78	1.78
Match total	3.34	3.34	2.77
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	22% 2/9

	Fortuna Sittard	Telstar	League
Corners
Corners won	3.43	4.13
Corners conceded	7.71	6.75
Match total	11.14	10.88	10.39
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.60
Opponent cards	1.60	1.80
Match total	3.10	3.40	2.77
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.