Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Fri, Nov 6 · 19:00 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg

Willem II 18th · 2 pts · 9 played DLLLL

VS— Compare

PEC Zwolle 15th · 7 pts · 9 played DLLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

PEC Zwolle are the stronger side on L90 Strength (16 vs 10). Willem II have 6.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 5.3 and have to travel 127 km.

Away travel127 kmRest days6.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Willem II36%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle40%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.64

Willem II35%

Draw27%

PEC Zwolle38%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.36

Willem II36%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle40%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.64

Willem II29%

Draw24%

PEC Zwolle48%

Expected goals 1.38 – 1.83

Willem II36%

Draw24%

PEC Zwolle39%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.65

Over 2.5 62% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Tilburg)

Forecast from 22 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Willem II 78% Both teams scored Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Streak Willem II 4 Losses in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Willem II

PEC Zwolle

10 L90 StrengthIn forecast 16

10 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

10 AttackIn forecast 17

9 DefenceIn forecast 14

8 Form indexContext 15

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Willem II

Attack+21%

Defense risk−20%

PEC Zwolle

Attack+36%

Defense risk−32%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Willem II

PEC Zwolle

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

78% Scored inContext 56%

0% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.67 ShotsContext 12.00

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

24% On target shareContext 35%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

68% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

20.33 Shots allowedContext 19.44

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78

4.33 BlocksContext 5.78

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.33

61% Save rateContext 64%

40% PossessionIn forecast 41%

356 PassesContext 348

276 Accurate passesContext 265

78% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.59

9.78 FoulsContext 11.22

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90

-0.28 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

80% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

11.67 ShotsContext 11.50

2.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

24% On target shareContext 34%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

68% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

20.33 Shots allowedContext 19.70

7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.90

4.33 BlocksContext 5.60

4.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

61% Save rateContext 65%

40% PossessionIn forecast 42%

356 PassesContext 355

276 Accurate passesContext 271

78% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.47 Team ratingContext 6.60

9.78 FoulsContext 11.20

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Willem II DLLLL

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km59 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L17 OctA · Sparta Rotterdam2–30.8 xPts
L11 OctA · Utrecht1–30.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Fortuna Sittard0–11.4 xPts
L15 SepA · Ajax1–50.3 xPts
D11 SepA · AZ Alkmaar1–10.3 xPts

PEC Zwolle DLLLW

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel127 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W18 OctH · GO Ahead Eagles4–11.3 xPts
L11 OctH · Cambuur0–11.4 xPts
L18 SepA · Groningen0–30.8 xPts
L13 SepH · Feyenoord0–70.8 xPts
D4 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam2–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Willem II	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct	5.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	127 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	59 km	162 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.7	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Willem II Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sparta Rotterdam (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 23M. Dekker 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

52T. Vilhena 18Anass Zarrouk

32Vito van Crooij 19U. van Aalst 7J. Slory

9D. Haen

PEC Zwolle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) 4–1, 18 Oct

1J. Schendelaar(G)

2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas

11D. Mbayo 25T. Oosting 37Gilles van der Wal

17S. van Hooijdonk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Willem II No reported absences

PEC Zwolle No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Willem II+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Willem II · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.50

PEC Zwolle · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Willem II	PEC Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam	L 2–3 A	D 2–2 A
Ajax	L 1–5 A	L 0–2 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 H	W 2–0 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–4 H	L 1–3 H
GO Ahead Eagles	L 1–4 A	W 4–1 H
Points	1 of 15 · 0.20 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Willem II wins0 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

14 May 2025Willem II1–2PEC Zwolle
13 Dec 2024PEC Zwolle0–1Willem II

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Willem II	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.11
Conceded per game	2.89	2.44
Match goals	3.89	3.56	3.18
Over 1.5	89%	89%
Over 2.5	78%	67%	62%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	78%	44%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	11%
Failed to score	22%	44%
Games	9	9

	Willem II	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.89	2.40
Match goals	3.89	3.40	3.18
Over 1.5	89%	90%
Over 2.5	78%	60%	62%
Over 3.5	67%	50%
Both teams scored	78%	40%	64%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	22%	50%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Willem II	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.33
Corners conceded	6.56	7.22
Match total	10.34	11.55	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.44
Opponent cards	1.11	1.00
Match total	2.44	2.44	2.77
Over 3.5	22% 2/9	33% 3/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9

	Willem II	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	4.00
Corners conceded	6.56	7.70
Match total	10.34	11.70	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.30
Opponent cards	1.40	0.90
Match total	2.70	2.20	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.