Tottenham vs Arsenal – 22 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 27 Sun, Feb 22 · 16:30 Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Tottenham 16th · 29 pts · 26 played LDDLL

1–4Full time

Arsenal 1st · 58 pts · 27 played LWWDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Arsenal were slight favourites.

Arsenal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (94 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Tottenham. Tottenham had 11.9 days of rest, Arsenal 3.9 and had to travel 0 km.

Away travel0 kmRest days11.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Tottenham20%

Draw23%

Arsenal57%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.94

Tottenham18%

Draw23%

Arsenal58%

Expected goals 0.95 – 1.88

Tottenham20%

Draw23%

Arsenal57%

Expected goals 1.06 – 1.91

Tottenham15%

Draw20%

Arsenal65%

Expected goals 0.94 – 2.17

Tottenham20%

Draw24%

Arsenal55%

Expected goals 0.98 – 1.78

Over 2.5 58% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 118

Team strength

Tottenham

Arsenal

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 94

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 94

56 AttackIn forecast 86

74 DefenceIn forecast 95

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Tottenham

Attack—

Defense risk—

Arsenal

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Tottenham

Arsenal

1.38 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.93

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.74

1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.72

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.69

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

81% Scored inContext 89%

27% Clean sheetsContext 48%

11.08 ShotsContext 14.44

3.77 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89

34% On target shareContext 34%

7.84 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

69% Box shareContext 76%

13% ConversionContext 13%

1.91 OffsidesContext 2.15

12.54 Shots allowedContext 7.67

4.19 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.64

3.44 BlocksContext 3.09

3.09 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.95

70% Save rateContext 73%

51% PossessionIn forecast 57%

420 PassesContext 481

344 Accurate passesContext 408

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.85 Team ratingContext 7.03

11.15 FoulsContext 10.04

9.46 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

2.58 Yellow cardsContext 1.37

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 26 and 27 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 1.86

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.70

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.34

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.70 ShotsContext 13.80

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.90

35% On target shareContext 36%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.40

66% Box shareContext 76%

10% ConversionContext 16%

1.63 OffsidesContext 2.63

13.10 Shots allowedContext 8.20

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.75

4.40 BlocksContext 3.50

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.40

64% Save rateContext 75%

51% PossessionIn forecast 56%

442 PassesContext 454

369 Accurate passesContext 381

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.10 FoulsContext 10.90

11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Tottenham

Rest11.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Arsenal

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km389 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Tottenham	Arsenal
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	11.9Premier League 2025-2026, 10 Feb	3.9Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	389 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Tottenham Confirmed XI

3-5-2

1G. Vicario(G)

37M. van de Ven 3R. Drăgușin 6João Palhinha

24D. Spence 29P. Sarr 8Y. Bissouma 22C. Gallagher 14A. Gray

7X. Simons 39R. Kolo Muani

+12 more reported missing outside this XI

Arsenal Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1David Raya(G)

5P. Hincapié 6Gabriel Magalhães 2W. Saliba 12J. Timber

41D. Rice 36Martín Zubimendi

19L. Trossard 10E. Eze 7B. Saka

14V. Gyökeres

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Tottenham Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Arsenal Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Tottenham-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Arsenal+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Tottenham · Home 0.77points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-7
Scored: 1.23
Conceded: 1.38

Arsenal · Away 1.86points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 7-5-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.86

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Tottenham	Arsenal
Newcastle	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Manchester United	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H	L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Manchester City	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Burnley	D 2–2 AW 3–0 H	W 2–0 A
West Ham	L 1–2 HW 3–0 A	W 2–0 H
Bournemouth	L 2–3 AL 0–1 H	W 3–2 A
Sunderland	D 1–1 H	W 3–0 HD 2–2 A
Brentford	D 0–0 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Crystal Palace	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Liverpool	L 1–2 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Nottingham Forest	L 0–3 A	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H
Fulham	L 1–2 H	W 1–0 A
Chelsea	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 A
Everton	W 3–0 A	W 1–0 A
Aston Villa	L 1–2 H	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Leeds	W 2–1 A	W 4–0 AW 5–0 H
Wolves	D 1–1 H	D 2–2 AW 2–1 H
Brighton	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Points	29 of 75 · 1.16 per game	55 of 78 · 2.12 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

1 Tottenham wins1 draws8 Arsenal wins

Goals per game1.20 – 2.20 Over 2.580% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 20%

23 Nov 2025Arsenal4–1Tottenham
15 Jan 2025Arsenal2–1Tottenham
15 Sep 2024Tottenham0–1Arsenal
28 Apr 2024Tottenham2–3Arsenal
24 Sep 2023Arsenal2–2Tottenham
15 Jan 2023Tottenham0–2Arsenal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Tottenham	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.38	1.93
Conceded per game	1.42	0.74
Match goals	2.81	2.67	2.99
Over 1.5	85%	74%
Over 2.5	65%	52%	58%
Over 3.5	27%	30%
Both teams scored	58%	48%	56%
Clean sheets	27%	48%
Failed to score	19%	11%
Games	26	27

	Tottenham	Arsenal	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.10
Conceded per game	1.60	1.00
Match goals	2.70	3.10	2.99
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	30%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	56%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Tottenham	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	5.96
Corners conceded	5.00	3.28
Match total	10.33	9.24	9.98
Over 8.5	58% 14/24	52% 13/25
Over 9.5	54% 13/24	48% 12/25
Over 10.5	46% 11/24	44% 11/25
Cards
Cards	2.69	1.37
Opponent cards	1.81	1.78
Match total	4.50	3.15	3.88
Over 3.5	69% 18/26	41% 11/27
Over 4.5	58% 15/26	19% 5/27

	Tottenham	Arsenal	League
Corners
Corners won	4.63	7.13
Corners conceded	4.75	3.63
Match total	9.38	10.76	9.98
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	75% 6/8
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.50	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	1.50
Match total	4.50	3.00	3.88
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 118 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.08league 3.74

Red cards0.11league 0.12

Cards 5+44%league 38%

Fouls21.4league 21.4

Penalties0.14league 0.22

Home wins52%league 42%

Tottenham10 with this referee

Record3-3-4 Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.7 Pens for · against1 · 1

D24 Jan 26A · Burnley2–20
W23 Aug 25A · Manchester City2–04
L16 May 25A · Aston Villa0–22
L21 Apr 25H · Nottingham Forest1–21
W16 Feb 25H · Manchester United1–01

Arsenal8 with this referee

Record5-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

L6 Dec 25A · Aston Villa1–22
W2 Feb 25H · Manchester City5–12
W1 Jan 25A · Brentford3–12
W2 Dec 23H · Wolves2–11
D11 Feb 23H · Brentford1–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.