Bundesliga Gameweek 23 Sat, Feb 21 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 10th · 25 pts · 22 played
1–0Full time
Bayer Leverkusen 6th · 39 pts · 21 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Union Berlin21.3%fair odds 4.69
Draw23.6%fair odds 4.23
Bayer Leverkusen55.0%fair odds 1.82
Expected goals1.09 – 1.87total 2.96
Likeliest score1–111.1%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

Union Berlin

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Bayer Leverkusen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

Union Berlin ↓ · Bayer Leverkusen →0123456+
05.89.19.15.62.61.00.4
15.111.19.96.22.91.10.4
23.15.85.43.31.60.60.2
31.12.12.01.20.60.20.1
40.30.60.50.30.20.10.0
50.10.10.10.10.00.00.0
6+0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Union Berlin goals, columns Bayer Leverkusen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 1–111.1%8.98
  • 1–29.9%10.13
  • 0–19.1%10.94
  • 0–29.1%11.03
  • 1–36.2%16.26
  • 2–15.8%17.37
  • 0–05.8%17.38
  • 0–35.6%17.71
  • 2–25.4%18.59
  • 1–05.1%19.62

Winning margin

2.4% Union Berlin by 3+ fair 42.00
5.8% Union Berlin by 2 fair 17.30
13.2% Union Berlin by 1 fair 7.59
23.6% Draw fair 4.23
23.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 1 fair 4.35
17.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 2 fair 5.88
15.0% Bayer Leverkusen by 3+ fair 6.67

Goal distribution

Total goals

6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+

Union Berlin goals

34%0
37%1
20%2
7%3
2%4+

Bayer Leverkusen goals

15%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
Union Berlin win 21.3% 22.3% -0.9 pp
Draw 23.6% 25.2% -1.6 pp
Bayer Leverkusen win 55.0% 52.5% +2.5 pp
Over 2.5 56.7% 51.4% +5.4 pp
Both teams score 56.7% 53.1% +3.5 pp
Expected goals Union Berlin 1.09 1.03 +0.06
Expected goals Bayer Leverkusen 1.87 1.70 +0.17

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • Union Berlin win21.3%4.69
  • Draw23.6%4.23
  • Bayer Leverkusen win55.0%1.82
  • Double chance Union Berlin or draw45.0%2.22
  • Double chance Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen76.4%1.31
  • Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw78.7%1.27
  • Draw no bet Union Berlin27.9%3.58
  • Draw no bet Bayer Leverkusen72.1%1.39

Goals

  • Over 0.594.2%1.06
  • Over 1.580.0%1.25
  • Over 2.556.7%1.76
  • Over 3.534.3%2.91
  • Over 4.517.8%5.63
  • Under 1.520.0%5.00
  • Under 2.543.3%2.31
  • Under 3.565.7%1.52

Both teams to score

  • Yes56.7%1.76
  • No43.3%2.31
  • Yes and over 2.545.5%2.20
  • Union Berlin win and yes11.7%8.58
  • Draw and yes17.9%5.59
  • Bayer Leverkusen win and yes27.1%3.69

Team goals

  • Union Berlin over 0.566.4%1.51
  • Union Berlin over 1.529.7%3.37
  • Union Berlin over 2.59.7%10.27
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 0.584.6%1.18
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 1.555.7%1.79
  • Bayer Leverkusen over 2.528.8%3.48
  • Union Berlin clean sheet15.4%6.48
  • Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet33.6%2.97
  • Union Berlin win to nil9.7%10.33
  • Bayer Leverkusen win to nil27.9%3.59

Handicap

  • Union Berlin −1.58.2%12.25
  • Union Berlin −2.52.4%42.00
  • Bayer Leverkusen +1.591.8%1.09
  • Bayer Leverkusen +2.597.6%1.02
  • Bayer Leverkusen −1.532.0%3.12
  • Union Berlin +1.568.0%1.47

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Bundesliga 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored198 Favourite won57.6% Avg chance given to result43.4% 1X2 Brier0.556 Over 2.5 called right62.6% BTTS called right56.6%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%2638.2%42.3%
40–50%6045.1%45.0%
50–60%5655.3%60.7%
60–70%3164.7%74.2%
70–80%1774.3%76.5%
80%+885.8%75.0%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 178 of 198 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.54810.5428
Avg chance given to result43.9%43.5%
Favourite won59.0%59.6%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 178 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 198 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.