Union Berlin
Attack—
Defense risk—
Union Berlin
10th · 25 pts · 22 played
DLLDL
1–0Full time
Bayer Leverkusen
6th · 39 pts · 21 played
LWWDW
Our take
Bayer Leverkusen were slight favourites.
Bayer Leverkusen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. Union Berlin had 7 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 7 and had to travel 472 km.
Away travel472 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 2
Union Berlin21%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen55%
Union Berlin21%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen54%
Union Berlin21%
Draw24%
Bayer Leverkusen55%
Union Berlin16%
Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen63%
Union Berlin22%
Draw25%
Bayer Leverkusen53%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 100
Team strength
Union BerlinBayer Leverkusen
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
78
42
AttackIn forecast
87
42
DefenceIn forecast
79
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBayer Leverkusen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Union BerlinBayer Leverkusen
1.27
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.05
1.68
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.61
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
73%
Scored inContext
86%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.64
ShotsContext
13.14
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
28%
On target shareContext
36%
9.45
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
75%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.47
11.55
Shots allowedContext
11.81
4.09
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.56
BlocksContext
3.11
2.84
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
64%
Save rateContext
73%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
318
PassesContext
615
230
Accurate passesContext
548
72%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.99
12.27
FoulsContext
8.86
10.36
Fouls sufferedContext
10.38
2.18
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.63
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
-0.33
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.20
ShotsContext
12.10
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
26%
On target shareContext
40%
11.10
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
77%
Box shareContext
58%
9%
ConversionContext
15%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.44
9.10
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.57
BlocksContext
3.78
2.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
55%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
354
PassesContext
649
261
Accurate passesContext
574
74%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.99
11.40
FoulsContext
8.50
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Union Berlin
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km511 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel472 km83 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Union Berlin |
Bayer Leverkusen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 7Bundesliga 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 472 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 511 km | 83 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Union Berlin
Confirmed XI
1F. Rønnow(G)
34S. Nsoki
14L. Querfeld
5D. Doekhi
39D. Köhn
6A. Kemlein
8R. Khedira
19J. Haberer
11W. Jeong
13A. Schäfer
23A. Ilić
Bayer Leverkusen
Confirmed XI
28J. Blaswich(G)
12E. Tapsoba
8R. Andrich
5L. Badé
20Álex Grimaldo
24Aleix García
6E. Fernández
13Arthur
30I. Maza
10M. Tillman
35Christian Kofane
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Union Berlin
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Bayer Leverkusen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Union Berlin-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Bayer Leverkusen+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Union Berlin · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.55
Bayer Leverkusen · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.90
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 15 this season
| Opponent | Union Berlin | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt | D 1–1 HW 4–3 A | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–3 AL 2–4 H | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Borussia Dortmund | L 0–3 HL 0–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| VfB Stuttgart | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 H |
| FC Augsburg | D 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 2–2 H | W 4–3 A |
| 1.FC Köln | W 1–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| RB Leipzig | W 3–1 H | W 3–1 A |
| VfL Wolfsburg | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 A |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | L 1–2 H | W 6–0 H |
| FC St. Pauli | W 1–0 A | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Bayern München | D 2–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| SC Freiburg | D 0–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Werder Bremen | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 57 · 1.26 per game | 36 of 60 · 1.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
0 Union Berlin wins4 draws5 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game0.44 – 1.89
Over 2.544%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets22% · 67%
- 4 Oct 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–0Union Berlin
- 12 Apr 2025Bayer Leverkusen0–0Union Berlin
- 30 Nov 2024Union Berlin1–2Bayer Leverkusen
- 6 Apr 2024Union Berlin0–1Bayer Leverkusen
- 12 Nov 2023Bayer Leverkusen4–0Union Berlin
- 29 Apr 2023Union Berlin0–0Bayer Leverkusen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Union Berlin | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.27 | 2.05 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.68 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 3.33 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 62% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 41% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 57% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 14% | |
| Games | 22 | 21 |
| Union Berlin | Bayer Leverkusen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Union Berlin | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.95 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.19 | 4.52 | |
| Match total | 9.19 | 9.47 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 15/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 5/21 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 2.19 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 4.41 | 4.86 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 62% 13/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Union Berlin | Bayer Leverkusen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.11 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 8.44 | 8.10 | 9.65 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 100 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.10league 3.74
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 38%
Fouls22.2league 20.7
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins54%league 46%
Union Berlin9 with this referee
Record4-2-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.4
Pens for · against0 · 2
- W6 Apr 25H · VfL Wolfsburg1–00
- D27 Oct 24H · Eintracht Frankfurt1–15
- D24 Aug 24A · FSV Mainz 051–13
- W28 Jan 24H · SV Darmstadt 981–03
- W30 Oct 22H · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–13
Bayer Leverkusen7 with this referee
Record7-0-0
Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W13 Dec 25H · 1.FC Köln2–02
- W26 Oct 25H · SC Freiburg2–01
- W18 Jan 25H · Borussia Mönchengladbach3–10
- W14 Apr 24H · Werder Bremen5–02
- W17 Mar 24A · SC Freiburg3–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Union Berlin22 games · scored 28 · conceded 37
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
12
31-45
4
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
10
11
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen21 games · scored 43 · conceded 27
8
4
0-15
8
4
16-30
11
9
31-45
5
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 13 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
8
3
76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
