Real Madrid

3rd · La Liga · 21 points · Matches played: 9

6 points behind Barcelona · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

-1.5 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed +0.5 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number.
89.3-1.5
World Rank 6th Global, by Elo
La Liga Rank 2nd L90 Strength

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Choose a second club to explore what separates them.

Our take

A top side, and in form.

Real Madrid build on a top-three attack and back it with a top-three defence. Across the 9 league matches with forecasts, their points total is close to our pre-match expectations. The toughest of the next 5 matches is the trip to Barcelona.

La Liga · 9 games. Their results look better than their underlying numbers. They are scoring more goals than their chances suggest. They are conceding fewer goals than expected; good goalkeeping or poor finishing by opponents may explain the gap.

They are among the busiest attacks in the league, with 18 shots a game. They are clinical in front of goal (15% of shots scored). Home is where they earn their points: 3.0 per game there against 1.5 away.

  • Top 4 >99% · Relegation 0%Likely 2nd · 83 projected points
  • Next 5: about 9 of 15 points Toughest at Barcelona · , 15% to win
  • 3 out, none key2% of squad weight missing
  • 21 pts vs 19.7 expected+1.3 vs pre-match expectations · 9 matches with forecasts

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Real Madrid. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals for this club in each category.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses observed Playing style averages; window size is not xG coverage and the two metrics can have different denominators. Points minus xPts uses the same covered current-league matches and stored forecasts as Club strength, including labelled historical reconstructions.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

The full picture, with the evidence behind every signal.View all Club insights →

Season

League position and season results.

Overview

2026-2027
All competitions11 Played
81.8%Win %
Wins9
Draws0
Losses2

Expected metrics · 10 of 11 matches covered

Goals For
292.64 / game
xG 23.59 3.41 more goals than expected. vs 27 goals
Goals Against
131.18 / game
xGA 10.55 1.45 more conceded than expected. vs 12 conceded
Goal Difference
+16+1.45 / game
xGD +13.04 Goal difference is 1.96 higher than expected. vs +15 GD
Clean Sheets
218% of games

Season totals cover all competitions and stages. Positions and points refer to each competition table.

Competition standings

There is no combined table across competitions. View each competition separately.

Squad 39 players · this season, all competitions · 2 out

Top scorer
K. Mbappé11 goals (2 pen)
Most assists
A. Güler4 assists
Best rated
K. Mbappé7.90 avg rating
Most minutes
T. Courtois990 min
Key to the model
ViníciusCore · weight 2.57

Stats are this season in all competitions. Model role is how much the availability model weighs each player before the game with RB Leipzig: core, starter, rotation or depth, from several seasons of minutes and ratings.

Performance

Strength, recent form and playing style.

Strength La Liga · 20 clubs

L90 Strength2nd of 20
89 Elo 1964 · World #6
Current Strength
89 With absences before 21 Oct: -3 Elo
Attack2nd of 20
89 Scores 2.50 per match against an average top-five side
Defence3rd of 20
85 Concedes 1.02 per match against an average top-five side

In forecast League average

L90 Strength comes from Elo; Attack and Defence from goals scored and conceded, expected goals (xG) and shots on target, all on fixed 0–100 scales shared by every league. These are the numbers the forecast uses.

Strong at both ends Defence first Attack first Struggling Attack → Defence → Barcelona: attack 97, defence 92, L90 Strength 93 Atletico Madrid: attack 82, defence 87, L90 Strength 81 Real Madrid: attack 89, defence 85, L90 Strength 89 Real Betis: attack 79, defence 59, L90 Strength 72 Real Sociedad: attack 62, defence 48, L90 Strength 58 Sevilla: attack 48, defence 57, L90 Strength 50 Alaves: attack 48, defence 55, L90 Strength 48 Celta Vigo: attack 36, defence 61, L90 Strength 54 Deportivo La Coruna: attack 40, defence 57, L90 Strength 45 Osasuna: attack 50, defence 50, L90 Strength 46 Athletic Club: attack 51, defence 64, L90 Strength 55 Villarreal: attack 76, defence 73, L90 Strength 67 Rayo Vallecano: attack 61, defence 60, L90 Strength 58 Getafe: attack 27, defence 59, L90 Strength 48 Espanyol: attack 36, defence 51, L90 Strength 44 Racing Santander: attack 42, defence 22, L90 Strength 41 Levante: attack 55, defence 41, L90 Strength 48 Elche: attack 39, defence 51, L90 Strength 44 Valencia: attack 39, defence 52, L90 Strength 51 Malaga: attack 28, defence 31, L90 Strength 41
Every La Liga club on the Attack and Defence scales. Dashed lines are the league average. Tap a crest to open that club.

Form last 5 for the index · last 10 listed

91
Form index · 3rd of 20 in league
Points, last 5
12
Median top-5 club
5.6
Own forecasts
10.1 +1.9
Table3rd L90 Strength2nd Form3rd

Table position in line with their strength.

Form compares points with what a median top-five club (L90 Strength 50) would take from the same fixtures, so wins over strong sides count for more; 50 is a typical run. "Own forecasts" is the gap to this club's pre-match expectations. Form is context: in our tests it did not improve the forecast.

  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Rayo Vallecano4–12.5 xPts
  • W8 SepH · Inter2–12.0 xPts
  • L4 SepA · Real Betis0–12.0 xPts
  • W30 AugH · Malaga4–02.4 xPts
  • W26 AugH · Real Sociedad4–12.4 xPts

Trends last 10, all competitions

Scored 9/10
Clean sheet 2/10
Conceded 2+ 3/10
Over 2.5 8/10
Both teams scored 7/10

Playing style vs La Liga average

REALeagueRank
Goals scored 2.56 1.54 2nd
Goals conceded 1.00 1.55 3rd
xG 2.41 1.45 2nd
xG allowed 1.01 1.46 3rd
Scored in 89% 75% 5th
Clean sheets 22% 25% 11th
REALeagueRank
Shots 17.56 13.43 2nd
Shots on target 7.22 4.90 2nd
On target share 41% 35% 1st
Box share 69% 59% 2nd
Conversion 15% 11% 2nd
REALeagueRank
Shots allowed 12.78 13.36 8th
On target allowed 4.44 4.92 9th
Blocks 3.44 3.56 12th
Save rate 73% 69% 7th
REALeagueRank
Possession 53% 50% 4th
Passes 528 456 4th
Pass accuracy 90% 84% 2nd
REALeagueRank
Fouls 8.44 12.30 1st
Fouls suffered 14.11 12.30 3rd
Yellow cards 2.11 2.17 10th
Red cards 0.22 0.11 16th
This league season, per match · 9 games. Rank among 20 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.
REALeagueRank
Goals scored 2.70 1.56 2nd
Goals conceded 1.20 1.55 5th
xG 2.32 1.44 2nd
xG allowed 1.06 1.43 2nd
Scored in 90% 76% 3rd
Clean sheets 20% 22% 11th
REALeagueRank
Shots 16.90 13.43 2nd
Shots on target 7.30 4.92 2nd
On target share 43% 35% 1st
Box share 71% 60% 1st
Conversion 16% 11% 2nd
REALeagueRank
Shots allowed 14.20 13.15 11th
On target allowed 5.10 4.91 11th
Blocks 3.80 3.45 6th
Save rate 75% 68% 2nd
REALeagueRank
Possession 50% 50% 8th
Passes 501 450 5th
Pass accuracy 89% 84% 2nd
REALeagueRank
Fouls 8.90 12.32 1st
Fouls suffered 13.30 12.28 6th
Yellow cards 2.00 2.11 10th
Red cards 0.20 0.11 15th
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 games. Rank among 20 clubs; for conceded, allowed, fouls and cards the lowest ranks 1st.

Home and away this league season

Home3.00pts per game5-0-0 · 3.4–0.6 goals · 5 games
Away1.50pts per game2-0-2 · 1.5–1.5 goals · 4 games

Goal timing this league season · 9 games

2 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 1 61-75
7 3 76-90

scored conceded, per 15 minutes

In forecastVia Att/DefContextLeague average

Possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Goals, xG and shots on target feed the Attack and Defence ratings. The rest describes how the team plays and does not change the forecast.

Team rankings La Liga · 9 games · rank of 20

Attack

GF 23 2nd / 20
GF/G 2.56 2nd / 20
xG/G 2.41 2nd / 20
G − xG +0.15 11th / 20

Defence

GA 9 4th / 20
GA/G 1.00 4th / 20
xGA/G 1.01 3rd / 20
xGA − GA +0.01 7th / 20

Overall

Pts 21 3rd / 20
xPts 19.7 2nd / 20
PPG 2.33 3rd / 20
TR 7.17 2nd / 20
GD +14 2nd / 20
xGD +12.6 2nd / 20
W 7 2nd / 20
L 2 3rd / 20

Scorelines

  • 4–1×3
  • 2–1×1
  • 4–0×1
  • 0–1×1
  • 3–2×1
  • 1–2×1

Goals per game both teams

0% 0
22% 1
0% 2
22% 3
11% 4
44% 5+

Totals club · league

Over 1.5
78%76%
Over 2.5
78%56%
Over 3.5
56%39%
Both scored
67%59%
Clean sheet
22%25%
Failed to score
11%25%
ClubLeague average

This league season only. xPts adds up our pre-match win and draw chances (pure EloLambda, the same numbers as Form). xG and TR come from match data and describe the season so far; none of these rankings change the forecast directly.