Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig

UEFA Champions League Matchday 3 Wed, Oct 21 · 20:00 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Real Madrid 8th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

RB Leipzig 21st · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid are clear favourites.

Real Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig are without C. Baumgartner. Real Madrid have 3 days of rest, RB Leipzig 4.1 and have to travel 1,732 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,732 kmRest days3 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Real Madrid70%

Draw16%

RB Leipzig14%

Expected goals 2.82 – 1.22

Real Madrid64%

Draw21%

RB Leipzig15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.88

Real Madrid70%

Draw16%

RB Leipzig14%

Expected goals 2.78 – 1.22

Real Madrid62%

Draw19%

RB Leipzig19%

Expected goals 2.51 – 1.37

Real Madrid70%

Draw16%

RB Leipzig14%

Expected goals 2.78 – 1.21

Over 2.5 77% Both score 67% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 30 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Madrid)

12°CMainly clear

Precipitation 0%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Real Madrid

RB Leipzig

89 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

89 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

89 AttackIn forecast 76

85 DefenceIn forecast 53

91 Form indexContext 78

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Madrid

Attack+8%

Defense risk+22%

RB Leipzig

Attack−32%

Defense risk+50%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Real Madrid

RB Leipzig

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

16.00 ShotsContext 16.50

8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

50% On target shareContext 30%

12.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50

78% Box shareContext 68%

19% ConversionContext 6%

1.50 OffsidesContext —

17.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.00 BlocksContext 1.50

5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

79% Save rateContext 64%

41% PossessionIn forecast 47%

405 PassesContext 414

345 Accurate passesContext 361

85% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.00 FoulsContext 11.00

12.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.38 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.90 ShotsContext 16.40

7.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

43% On target shareContext 36%

12.20 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

71% Box shareContext 69%

16% ConversionContext 13%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.29

14.20 Shots allowedContext 14.20

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

3.80 BlocksContext 3.00

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

75% Save rateContext 69%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

501 PassesContext 508

446 Accurate passesContext 443

89% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.13 Team ratingContext 6.97

8.90 FoulsContext 9.30

13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Madrid WLWWW

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,731 km in 14d

Schedule load28%Moderate

Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

RB Leipzig WLWWL

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,732 km721 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Madrid	RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 28	Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct	4.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,732 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,731 km	721 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	2.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct

1T. Courtois(G)

17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde

14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler

25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick

10K. Mbappé

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed

4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct

26M. Vandevoordt(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann

7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda

28C. Nkunku

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Madrid Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −1.3% · Defence line −3.2% of weighted minutes

DEF Raúl Asencio Rotation 6.85 Def −2.9%
ATT Rodrygo Rotation 7.07 Att −1.3%
DEF F. Mendy Depth 6.47 Def −0.4%

RB Leipzig Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals

Attack line −11.0% · Defence line −6.4% of weighted minutes

MID C. Baumgartner Starter 6.83 Att −8.2% Def −5.5%
MID A. Ouédraogo Rotation 6.84 Att −1.4% Def −0.9%
ATT Marc Guiu Rotation 6.30 Att −1.4%

1 without recent minutes (no impact): L. Zingerle

Total impact vs full squads

Real Madrid+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
RB Leipzig-0.4 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Madrid · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Real Madrid wins0 draws1 RB Leipzig wins

Goals per game2.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

25 Oct 2022RB Leipzig3–2Real Madrid
14 Sep 2022Real Madrid2–0RB Leipzig

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Real Madrid	RB Leipzig	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	5.00	3.00	4.04
Over 1.5	100%	50%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	77%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	100%	50%	67%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Real Madrid	RB Leipzig	Forecast
Scored per game	2.70	2.10
Conceded per game	1.20	2.00
Match goals	3.90	4.10	4.04
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	80%	77%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	50%	67%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Madrid	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	5.00
Corners conceded	8.00	5.00
Match total	14.50	10.00	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	1.00	2.00
Opponent cards	3.00	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.80
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Real Madrid	RB Leipzig	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	4.80
Corners conceded	5.00	5.70
Match total	11.30	10.50	9.71
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	2.50	1.30
Match total	4.70	2.60	3.80
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.