Toulouse

11th · Ligue 1 · 9 points · Matches played: 7

5 points behind Lyon · Table & Fixtures →

L90 Strength L90 Strength is LOAD90’s own club strength rating on a fixed 0–100 scale, built from its Elo rating. League Strength uses the mean Elo of a league's clubs and a separate league calibration, so the two scores are not directly comparable.

+7.6 is current form. We look at the goals the team scores and concedes and at the quality of its chances (expected goals, xG) over recent matches. If attack and defence are playing above what the Elo rating predicts, L90 Strength goes up for the forecast; if below, it goes down.

Base L90 Strength changed +3.8 over the last 5 matches; that is already inside the number. 38.9+7.6
World Rank 141st Global, by Elo
Ligue 1 Rank 9th L90 Strength
Last Le MansA xG 1.8–0.9 3–0 Next Estac TroyesH 69%

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Upcoming fixtures

Toulouse · All competitions

Forecast
Estac TroyesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home 69% win 2.27 xPts MarseilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away 29% win 1.11 xPts StrasbourgLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home 49% win 1.71 xPts LensLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts RennesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts AuxerreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts AngersLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris FCLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts NiceLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LensLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts LE HavreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MonacoLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts RennesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LyonLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Le MansLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts NiceLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts StrasbourgLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts Paris FCLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Estac TroyesLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts MarseilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts AngersLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts LorientLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts AuxerreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home — win — xPts Paris Saint GermainLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away — win — xPts

xPts = 3 × win probability + draw probability. — means no published forecast. Open a match for xG and the full forecast.

Results

Toulouse · All competitions

Full time
Le MansLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away W 3–0 1.8–0.9 xG +1.6 Δpts MonacoLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away D 2–2 1.5–1.3 xG +0.3 Δpts LE HavreLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home W 3–2 — xG +1.2 Δpts LorientLigue 1 2026-2027 · Away D 2–2 — xG -0.1 Δpts LilleLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 0–1 — xG -1.1 Δpts Stade Brestois 29Ligue 1 2026-2027 · Away D 2–2 1.1–2.7 xG -0.3 Δpts LyonLigue 1 2026-2027 · Home L 0–2 2.8–0.7 xG -1.2 Δpts

Score and actual xG show Toulouse first. Δpts = points taken − pre-match xPts. — means data unavailable.

Current load Low · 5

Rest profile7.9 days since last match
0%
Schedule load2 matches in last 14 days
0%
Travel loadHome match, 1,959 km in 14 days
17%
Squad availability1 out, no key players · Last match: 16 Oct
1%

Load before the next match, vs Estac Troyes, 24 Oct. Squad availability is shown separately and is not part of the score; availability is the share of squad weight missing, the same input the forecast uses for absences.

Schedule difficulty all competitions

Each bar is one match: 50% match difficulty from current relative Elo strength + 50% calendar load (rest, match congestion and travel). Higher means harder, on a 0–100 scale. This is a descriptive index, not a win probability. Lighter bars are upcoming; the dashed line marks today. Grey marks missing data. 22 Aug vs Lyon: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 68/100
L
 Aug 29 Aug at Stade Brestois 29: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 45/100
D
 3 Sep vs Lille: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 64/100
L
 Sep 12 Sep at Lorient: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 46/100
D
 19 Sep vs LE Havre: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 31/100
W
 10 Oct at Monaco: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 65/100
D
 Oct 16 Oct at Le Mans: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 37/100
W
 24 Oct vs Estac Troyes: Schedule difficulty 13/100; match difficulty 21/100 1 Nov at Marseille: Schedule difficulty 32/100; match difficulty 57/100 Nov 6 Nov vs Strasbourg: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 55/100 21 Nov at Lens: Schedule difficulty 36/100; match difficulty 66/100 29 Nov vs Rennes: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 61/100 5 Dec vs Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 48/100; match difficulty 90/100 Dec 12 Dec at Auxerre: Schedule difficulty 24/100; match difficulty 41/100 2 Jan vs Angers: Schedule difficulty 15/100; match difficulty 29/100 Jan 16 Jan at Paris FC: Schedule difficulty 26/100; match difficulty 45/100 23 Jan vs Nice: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 38/100 30 Jan vs Lens: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 66/100 6 Feb at LE Havre: Schedule difficulty 19/100; match difficulty 31/100 Feb 13 Feb vs Monaco: Schedule difficulty 33/100; match difficulty 65/100 20 Feb at Rennes: Schedule difficulty 34/100; match difficulty 61/100 27 Feb at Lyon: Schedule difficulty 37/100; match difficulty 68/100 6 Mar vs Le Mans: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 37/100 Mar 13 Mar at Nice: Schedule difficulty 22/100; match difficulty 38/100 20 Mar vs Stade Brestois 29: Schedule difficulty 23/100; match difficulty 45/100 3 Apr at Strasbourg: Schedule difficulty 31/100; match difficulty 55/100 Apr 10 Apr at Lille: Schedule difficulty 35/100; match difficulty 64/100 17 Apr vs Paris FC: Schedule difficulty 28/100; match difficulty 45/100 24 Apr at Estac Troyes: Schedule difficulty 16/100; match difficulty 21/100 1 May vs Marseille: Schedule difficulty 29/100; match difficulty 57/100 May 8 May at Angers: Schedule difficulty 18/100; match difficulty 29/100 16 May vs Lorient: Schedule difficulty 23/100; match difficulty 46/100 22 May vs Auxerre: Schedule difficulty 21/100; match difficulty 41/100 29 May at Paris Saint Germain: Schedule difficulty 48/100; match difficulty 90/100

Schedule next 30 days · forecast and load

All fixtures and load →
Rest7.9 daysbefore TRO
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel / 14d1,959 kmaway trips
Schedule load5%Low
vs Estac TroyesSat 24 Oct, 16:15 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 12 69%win19%draw12%loss Low load · 7.9 d rest at MarseilleSun 1 Nov, 19:45 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 47 29%win24%draw47%loss Low load · 8.2 d rest vs StrasbourgFri 6 Nov, 19:45 Ligue 1 2026-2027 · opponent L90 Strength 45 49%win24%draw27%loss Low load · 5 d rest
Win · draw · loss: LOAD90 forecastLoad bar: rest, matches and travel before each game (context; only 4+ matches in 14 days changes the forecast)
Full match preview oneScored → vs Estac Troyes, 24 OctOdds, value, live score

Fixture Swing

Opponent opportunity across the next 3 matches · all competitions

3 of 3 forecasts available

Attack Swing+8%

Baseline 4.99 → Forecast 5.41 expected goals · 3 included matches

Conceding Swing−8%

Baseline 4.22 → Forecast 3.88 expected goals conceded · 3 included matches

Opportunity for the next 3 matches
MatchAttackConceding riskGoals · Baseline → Forecast
vs Estac Troyes24 Oct · Ligue 1 2026-2027 +26% −36% 1.80 → 2.26
at Marseille1 Nov · Ligue 1 2026-2027 −5% +8% 1.42 → 1.35
vs Strasbourg6 Nov · Ligue 1 2026-2027 +1% −1% 1.78 → 1.80

Swing compares total forecast goals with total baseline goals for the included matches. Forecasts are available up to 21 days ahead. Missing snapshots and different model revisions are excluded; a partial window covers only the matches shown with values. Your team's own conditions are kept in each baseline.

Next match · Match Opportunity

Toulouse

Baseline: average Ligue 1 opponent

Attack Uplift +26% Expected goals Baseline1.80Forecast2.26
Conceding Risk −36% Expected goals conceded Baseline1.29Forecast0.83
Clean Sheet +16.2 pp Chance of conceding no goals Baseline27.5%Forecast43.7%