1.FC Köln
Attack0%
Defense risk−24%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
FC Schalke 04 are the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for 1.FC Köln. 1.FC Köln have 7.8 days of rest, FC Schalke 04 7 and have to travel 64 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel64 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
1.FC Köln41%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0433%
1.FC Köln36%
Draw27%
FC Schalke 0436%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0433%
1.FC Köln34%
Draw25%
FC Schalke 0441%
1.FC Köln41%
Draw26%
FC Schalke 0434%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Köln)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 46%
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 67%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for 1.FC Köln and FC Schalke 04. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
1.FC Köln
FC Schalke 04
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
36
AttackIn forecast
33
36
DefenceIn forecast
50
26
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Schalke 04
Attack+16%
Defense risk−21%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
1.FC KölnFC Schalke 04
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.34
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
83%
Scored inContext
33%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
16.33
ShotsContext
10.17
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
33%
On target shareContext
34%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
71%
Box shareContext
72%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
1.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
15.67
Shots allowedContext
15.17
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.17
3.83
BlocksContext
4.50
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.17
71%
Save rateContext
84%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
417
PassesContext
349
344
Accurate passesContext
243
83%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.17
FoulsContext
9.33
11.33
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
0.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
90%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.30
ShotsContext
11.00
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
35%
On target shareContext
36%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
73%
Box shareContext
75%
9%
ConversionContext
8%
1.17
OffsidesContext
2.63
14.50
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.80
BlocksContext
3.40
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
60%
Save rateContext
79%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
414
PassesContext
380
343
Accurate passesContext
278
83%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.80
FoulsContext
8.90
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
1.FC Köln
LDLWL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km305 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
FC Schalke 04
DWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel64 km788 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| 1.FC Köln |
FC Schalke 04 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 64 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 305 km | 788 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
1.FC Köln
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa
24L. Lochoshvili
22J. Simpson-Pusey
2Joel Schmied
28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina
5T. Krauß
8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala
30M. Bülter
FC Schalke 04
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences 1.FC Köln
No reported absences
FC Schalke 04
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FC Schalke 04+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
1.FC Köln · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
FC Schalke 04 · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 1.FC Köln wins1 draws0 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 29 Jan 2023FC Schalke 040–01.FC Köln
- 7 Aug 20221.FC Köln3–1FC Schalke 04
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| 1.FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 1.83 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 33% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| 1.FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.30 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 1.83 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 33% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 67% | |
| Games | 10 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| 1.FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 12.33 | 9.00 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.17 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| 1.FC Köln | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.44 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 11.22 | 8.33 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.10 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
6
61-75
4
4
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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