FC Augsburg vs Union Berlin

Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 WWK Arena, Augsburg

FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played WDLDL

VS— Compare

Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played LLLWD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FC Augsburg are slight favourites.

FC Augsburg are the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Union Berlin. FC Augsburg have 7 days of rest, Union Berlin 7 and have to travel 495 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel495 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

FC Augsburg53%

Draw20%

Union Berlin27%

Expected goals 2.40 – 1.71

FC Augsburg50%

Draw26%

Union Berlin24%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.09

FC Augsburg53%

Draw20%

Union Berlin27%

Expected goals 2.40 – 1.71

FC Augsburg44%

Draw21%

Union Berlin35%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.92

FC Augsburg53%

Draw20%

Union Berlin27%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.66

Over 2.5 78% Both score 75% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Augsburg)

11°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 13%
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 56%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FC Augsburg 6 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

FC Augsburg

Union Berlin

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 39

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

72 AttackIn forecast 42

23 DefenceIn forecast 41

46 Form indexContext 38

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

FC Augsburg

Attack+8%

Defense risk−18%

Union Berlin

Attack+29%

Defense risk+9%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

FC Augsburg

Union Berlin

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.83

2.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.17

2.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.09

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

100% Scored inContext 50%

17% Clean sheetsContext 33%

15.67 ShotsContext 12.83

7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.75

45% On target shareContext 35%

11.67 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

72% Box shareContext 64%

17% ConversionContext 7%

1.75 OffsidesContext 2.60

21.83 Shots allowedContext 15.67

7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00

6.17 BlocksContext 4.20

5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.40

70% Save rateContext 56%

42% PossessionIn forecast 44%

372 PassesContext 359

288 Accurate passesContext 268

77% Pass accuracyContext 75%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.58

9.83 FoulsContext 11.67

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50

1.83 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

2.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

2.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.10 ShotsContext 12.30

6.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.88

42% On target shareContext 38%

11.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.30

72% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 12%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.43

19.20 Shots allowedContext 14.50

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

5.50 BlocksContext 4.13

4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

71% Save rateContext 57%

41% PossessionIn forecast 45%

356 PassesContext 372

274 Accurate passesContext 285

77% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.74

9.20 FoulsContext 10.30

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

FC Augsburg WDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km590 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Union Berlin LLLWD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel495 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected

D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	FC Augsburg	Union Berlin
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	495 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	590 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct

1F. Dahmen(G)

2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah

16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf

21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer

9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

1F. Rønnow(G)

15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer

13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer

30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira

21T. Skarke

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

FC Augsburg No reported absences

Union Berlin No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

FC Augsburg+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Union Berlin+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

FC Augsburg · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 1.33

Union Berlin · Away 0.00points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-2
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 5.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	FC Augsburg	Union Berlin
SV Elversberg	L 3–4 A	W 1–0 H
Bayern München	D 2–2 H	L 0–7 A
Bayer Leverkusen	D 2–2 H	L 0–4 A
Eintracht Frankfurt	W 4–1 A	D 3–3 H
FC Schalke 04	W 3–0 H	L 1–3 H
Points	8 of 15 · 1.60 per game	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 FC Augsburg wins4 draws2 Union Berlin wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.00 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets50% · 20%

16 May 2026Union Berlin4–0FC Augsburg
15 Jan 2026FC Augsburg1–1Union Berlin
17 May 2025FC Augsburg1–2Union Berlin
15 Jan 2025Union Berlin0–2FC Augsburg
12 Apr 2024FC Augsburg2–0Union Berlin
25 Nov 2023Union Berlin1–1FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	FC Augsburg	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	0.83
Conceded per game	2.00	2.83
Match goals	4.67	3.67	4.11
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	67%	78%
Over 3.5	83%	67%
Both teams scored	83%	33%	75%
Clean sheets	17%	33%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	6	6

	FC Augsburg	Union Berlin	Forecast
Scored per game	2.30	1.50
Conceded per game	1.90	2.30
Match goals	4.20	3.80	4.11
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	90%	80%	78%
Over 3.5	80%	80%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	75%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	FC Augsburg	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.00
Corners conceded	6.83	5.83
Match total	12.83	9.83	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	83% 5/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.83	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	2.00
Match total	3.33	4.50	3.51
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6

	FC Augsburg	Union Berlin	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	4.10
Corners conceded	6.10	6.50
Match total	11.90	10.60	10.72
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.20
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.30	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.