VfB Stuttgart
Attack+36%
Defense risk−22%
VfB Stuttgart
13th · 6 pts · 6 played
WLLWL
VS—
Compare
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · 0 pts · 6 played
LLLLL
Our take
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites.
VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 36). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart have 3 days of rest, Borussia Mönchengladbach 5.1 and have to travel 331 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel331 kmRest days3 · 5.1Matches / 14d4 · 2
VfB Stuttgart72%
Draw15%
Borussia Mönchengladbach13%
VfB Stuttgart64%
Draw21%
Borussia Mönchengladbach15%
VfB Stuttgart72%
Draw15%
Borussia Mönchengladbach13%
VfB Stuttgart64%
Draw18%
Borussia Mönchengladbach18%
VfB Stuttgart74%
Draw15%
Borussia Mönchengladbach11%
Over 2.5 80%
Both score 68%
Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Stuttgart)
12°COvercast
- Precipitation 26%
- Wind 21 km/h
- Humidity 59%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Borussia Mönchengladbach
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
VfB Stuttgart
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Borussia Mönchengladbach
−0.78
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.26xG against2.04
-
Alert
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
VfB Stuttgart
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Borussia Mönchengladbach
3.3
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Borussia Mönchengladbach
−0.78
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.26xG against2.04
Team strength
VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
68
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
67
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
70
AttackIn forecast
34
58
DefenceIn forecast
21
46
Form indexContext
7
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBorussia Mönchengladbach
Attack0%
Defense risk+9%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.33
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
2.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.49
-0.58
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
67%
Scored inContext
67%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.00
ShotsContext
15.17
5.83
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
34%
On target shareContext
30%
12.17
Shots in the boxContext
9.83
72%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
3.00
18.17
Shots allowedContext
18.17
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.83
5.00
BlocksContext
3.20
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
63%
Save rateContext
62%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
506
PassesContext
404
422
Accurate passesContext
328
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.02
Team ratingContext
6.46
9.83
FoulsContext
14.83
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.17
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.91
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
2.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
16.80
ShotsContext
13.50
6.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.44
37%
On target shareContext
30%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
70%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.78
15.50
Shots allowedContext
15.10
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.10
5.22
BlocksContext
2.88
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
65%
Save rateContext
68%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
502
PassesContext
432
422
Accurate passesContext
356
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.63
11.10
FoulsContext
12.60
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
VfB Stuttgart
LLWWL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km2,900 km in 14d
Schedule load48%High
Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LLLLL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel331 km90 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| VfB Stuttgart |
Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 48 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct | 5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 331 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,900 km | 90 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
VfB Stuttgart
Last XI · not confirmed
41D. Seimen(G)
3R. Hendriks
24J. Chabot
29Finn Jeltsch
4J. Vagnoman
6A. Stiller
16A. Karazor
18J. Leweling
26D. Undav
11B. El Khannouss
9E. Demirović
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Last XI · not confirmed
1M. Nicolas(G)
26L. Ullrich
2F. Chiarodia
4K. Diks
16P. Sander
36W. Mohya
10F. Neuhaus
47Z. Uno
29J. Scally
3I. Lidberg
38A. Bolin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences VfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Borussia Mönchengladbach
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
VfB Stuttgart · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| 1899 Hoffenheim | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| 1.FC Köln | W 4–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
6 VfB Stuttgart wins1 draws3 Borussia Mönchengladbach wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.30
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach0–3VfB Stuttgart
- 30 Aug 2025VfB Stuttgart1–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 1 Feb 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 14 Sep 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach1–3VfB Stuttgart
- 18 May 2024VfB Stuttgart4–0Borussia Mönchengladbach
- 14 Jan 2024Borussia Mönchengladbach3–1VfB Stuttgart
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 3.33 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 4.67 | 4.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.70 | 4.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 80% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 68% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 12.67 | 11.50 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 4.83 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| VfB Stuttgart | Borussia Mönchengladbach | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.30 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 9.90 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 3.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 5.20 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
VfB Stuttgart6 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach6 games · scored 8 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
6
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
7
76-90
VfB Stuttgart10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Borussia Mönchengladbach10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
3
1
0-15
1
7
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
4
61-75
5
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
Next fixtures Bundesliga
View all fixtures →VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Oct 2319:30
FSV Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
Oct 2414:30
FC Augsburg
Union Berlin
Oct 2414:30
RB Leipzig
SV Elversberg
Oct 2414:30
SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV
Oct 2414:30
1.FC Köln
FC Schalke 04
Oct 2414:30
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht Frankfurt
Oct 2417:30
1899 Hoffenheim
Bayer Leverkusen
Oct 2514:30
SC Freiburg
Bayern München
Oct 2516:30