Borussia Dortmund
Attack+14%
Defense risk−4%
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
WWWDD
VS—
Compare
Eintracht Frankfurt
11th · 8 pts · 6 played
LWDLW
Our take
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites.
Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Eintracht Frankfurt. Borussia Dortmund have 4 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 7.9 and have to travel 178 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel178 kmRest days4 · 7.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Borussia Dortmund69%
Draw17%
Eintracht Frankfurt14%
Borussia Dortmund66%
Draw21%
Eintracht Frankfurt14%
Borussia Dortmund69%
Draw17%
Eintracht Frankfurt14%
Borussia Dortmund61%
Draw20%
Eintracht Frankfurt19%
Borussia Dortmund67%
Draw19%
Eintracht Frankfurt14%
Over 2.5 73%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Dortmund)
9°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 33%
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 78%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and Eintracht Frankfurt. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Borussia Dortmund
+0.89
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.85xG against0.96
-
Trend
Eintracht Frankfurt
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Borussia Dortmund
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Borussia Dortmund
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Borussia Dortmund
+0.89
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.85xG against0.96
-
Trend
Borussia Dortmund
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Eintracht Frankfurt
67%
Both teams scored
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Eintracht Frankfurt
1.7
Goals scored per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Insight
Borussia Dortmund
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Borussia Dortmund
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Eintracht Frankfurt
2.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
80
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
69
AttackIn forecast
54
80
DefenceIn forecast
37
61
Form indexContext
52
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEintracht Frankfurt
Attack−27%
Defense risk+14%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
0.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
83%
Scored inContext
83%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
15.17
ShotsContext
14.67
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.83
34%
On target shareContext
40%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
11.50
73%
Box shareContext
78%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
11.67
Shots allowedContext
17.50
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
2.80
BlocksContext
5.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
78%
Save rateContext
67%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
530
PassesContext
436
450
Accurate passesContext
353
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.17
FoulsContext
10.33
11.83
Fouls sufferedContext
13.17
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
80%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.70
ShotsContext
14.10
5.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
39%
On target shareContext
41%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
72%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.63
OffsidesContext
2.22
11.20
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.40
2.78
BlocksContext
4.44
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.20
77%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
530
PassesContext
449
454
Accurate passesContext
370
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.90
FoulsContext
10.80
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Borussia Dortmund
WWDLD
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km11,329 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Eintracht Frankfurt
LWDLW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km586 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Borussia Dortmund |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 20 Oct | 7.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 178 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 11,329 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Borussia Dortmund
Last XI · not confirmed
1G. Kobel(G)
4N. Schlotterbeck
3W. Anton
22J. Gadou
24D. Svensson
8F. Nmecha
7J. Bellingham
26J. Ryerson
14M. Beier
18E. Nwaneri
9S. Guirassy
Eintracht Frankfurt
Last XI · not confirmed
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi
3L. Brassier
4R. Koch
34P. Collins
8F. Chaïbi
27M. Götze
25R. Onyedika
20R. Doan
11Y. Ebnoutalib
9J. Burkardt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Borussia Dortmund
No reported absences
Eintracht Frankfurt
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Borussia Dortmund+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Borussia Dortmund · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin | D 0–0 A | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
7 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws1 Eintracht Frankfurt wins
Goals per game2.80 – 1.60
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets20% · 10%
- 8 May 2026Borussia Dortmund3–2Eintracht Frankfurt
- 9 Jan 2026Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Borussia Dortmund
- 17 Jan 2025Eintracht Frankfurt2–0Borussia Dortmund
- 24 Aug 2024Borussia Dortmund2–0Eintracht Frankfurt
- 17 Mar 2024Borussia Dortmund3–1Eintracht Frankfurt
- 29 Oct 2023Eintracht Frankfurt3–3Borussia Dortmund
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.33 | 3.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 83% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 67% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 4.00 | 3.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 73% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.33 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 4.67 | 3.66 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.80 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 10.40 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.00 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt6 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
5
3
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
5
76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 19 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
8
4
76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
6
4
0-15
16-30
2
7
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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