1899 Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen

Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 25 · 14:30 PreZero Arena, Sinsheim

1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played LWLLW

VS— Compare

Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played WDWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. 1899 Hoffenheim have 2.8 days of rest, Bayer Leverkusen 2.9 and have to travel 239 km. Weather to note: strong wind.

Away travel239 kmRest days2.8 · 2.9Matches / 14d3 · 3

1899 Hoffenheim18%

Draw18%

Bayer Leverkusen63%

Expected goals 1.38 – 2.60

1899 Hoffenheim25%

Draw26%

Bayer Leverkusen49%

Expected goals 1.09 – 1.64

1899 Hoffenheim18%

Draw18%

Bayer Leverkusen63%

Expected goals 1.38 – 2.60

1899 Hoffenheim13%

Draw16%

Bayer Leverkusen72%

Expected goals 1.23 – 2.91

1899 Hoffenheim19%

Draw20%

Bayer Leverkusen61%

Expected goals 1.22 – 2.30

Over 2.5 76% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 36 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sinsheim)

15°CLight rain

Precipitation 90%
Wind 24 km/h
Humidity 85%

Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

1899 Hoffenheim

Bayer Leverkusen

49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 79

49 Current StrengthIn forecast 79

46 AttackIn forecast 87

43 DefenceIn forecast 79

15 Form indexContext 94

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack−25%

Defense risk+47%

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack+10%

Defense risk−9%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

1899 Hoffenheim

Bayer Leverkusen

1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 2.19

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.48

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 33%

17.83 ShotsContext 19.67

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17

30% On target shareContext 31%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.83

61% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.20 OffsidesContext 1.33

13.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.33 BlocksContext 2.67

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20

52% Save rateContext 52%

57% PossessionIn forecast 58%

499 PassesContext 539

405 Accurate passesContext 470

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.02

13.33 FoulsContext 12.33

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.56 xGVia Att/Def 2.35

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25

-0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

80% Scored inContext 100%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

16.60 ShotsContext 18.50

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

28% On target shareContext 36%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 13.30

62% Box shareContext 71%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.89

12.90 Shots allowedContext 12.20

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

4.10 BlocksContext 3.10

2.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

50% Save rateContext 63%

59% PossessionIn forecast 58%

515 PassesContext 537

426 Accurate passesContext 470

83% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.72 Team ratingContext 7.06

14.00 FoulsContext 11.90

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

1899 Hoffenheim LLLLW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km552 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Bayer Leverkusen WWWWW

Rest2.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel239 km5,945 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 33
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct	2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 22 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	239 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	552 km	5,945 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

1O. Baumann(G)

39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal

22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu

10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté

19T. Lemperle

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah

6E. Fernández 24Aleix García

9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby

14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

1899 Hoffenheim No reported absences

Bayer Leverkusen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

1899 Hoffenheim · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.33

Bayer Leverkusen · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 1899 Hoffenheim wins1 draws6 Bayer Leverkusen wins

Goals per game1.60 – 2.20 Over 2.590% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 0%

17 Jan 20261899 Hoffenheim1–0Bayer Leverkusen
23 Aug 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–21899 Hoffenheim
2 Feb 2025Bayer Leverkusen3–11899 Hoffenheim
14 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim1–4Bayer Leverkusen
30 Mar 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–11899 Hoffenheim
4 Nov 20231899 Hoffenheim2–3Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.83	2.67
Conceded per game	2.33	1.50
Match goals	4.17	4.17	3.97
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	83%	76%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	100%	67%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	33%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	6	6

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	2.40
Conceded per game	2.30	1.30
Match goals	3.70	3.70	3.97
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	76%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	70%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	20%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	7.33
Corners conceded	4.67	3.33
Match total	11.34	10.66	10.72
Over 8.5	100% 6/6	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	2.17	1.33
Opponent cards	0.67	2.17
Match total	2.84	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6

	1899 Hoffenheim	Bayer Leverkusen	League
Corners
Corners won	7.10	6.70
Corners conceded	4.20	3.50
Match total	11.30	10.20	10.72
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	90% 9/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.70	1.20
Opponent cards	1.40	1.80
Match total	4.10	3.00	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.