SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV

Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played LLWLD

VS— Compare

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Hamburger SV. SC Paderborn 07 have 7 days of rest, Hamburger SV 7 and have to travel 220 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel220 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

SC Paderborn 0742%

Draw25%

Hamburger SV34%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.48

SC Paderborn 0743%

Draw27%

Hamburger SV31%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.21

SC Paderborn 0742%

Draw25%

Hamburger SV34%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.48

SC Paderborn 0734%

Draw25%

Hamburger SV42%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.66

SC Paderborn 0741%

Draw25%

Hamburger SV34%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.44

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paderborn)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 34%
Wind 17 km/h
Humidity 55%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Defence

Streaks

Streak Hamburger SV 3 Wins in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

SC Paderborn 07

Hamburger SV

38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

34 AttackIn forecast 37

33 DefenceIn forecast 43

33 Form indexContext 70

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Paderborn 07

Attack+6%

Defense risk−22%

Hamburger SV

Attack+18%

Defense risk−23%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

SC Paderborn 07

Hamburger SV

0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

33% Scored inContext 50%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

13.50 ShotsContext 11.00

4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

21% On target shareContext 33%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

58% Box shareContext 56%

6% ConversionContext 9%

1.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

18.17 Shots allowedContext 19.17

6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

6.33 BlocksContext 5.33

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

74% Save rateContext 62%

46% PossessionIn forecast 40%

443 PassesContext 346

357 Accurate passesContext 270

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.54

10.50 FoulsContext 14.17

10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.50 ShotsContext 11.60

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

26% On target shareContext 35%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

60% Box shareContext 59%

8% ConversionContext 11%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.86

16.00 Shots allowedContext 16.40

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

5.11 BlocksContext 4.56

4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

79% Save rateContext 64%

48% PossessionIn forecast 40%

451 PassesContext 348

366 Accurate passesContext 275

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.94 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.80 FoulsContext 12.40

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Paderborn 07 LLWLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km302 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel220 km968 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SC Paderborn 07	Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	220 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	302 km	968 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	1 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	7	8.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct

15N. Noll(G)

22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst

5S. Castañeda

23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda

27S. Tigges 30S. Marino

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SC Paderborn 07 No reported absences

Hamburger SV No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

SC Paderborn 07+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Hamburger SV+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SC Paderborn 07 · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.33

Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	SC Paderborn 07	Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart	L 0–2 H	W 1–0 H
1899 Hoffenheim	W 3–1 H	W 3–2 A
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–3 A	L 0–2 A
FSV Mainz 05	D 0–0 A	L 0–5 H
Points	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game	6 of 12 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	SC Paderborn 07	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	2.50
Match goals	2.33	3.50	3.15
Over 1.5	67%	83%
Over 2.5	50%	67%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	50%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	63%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	67%	50%
Games	6	6

	SC Paderborn 07	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	0.83	1.30
Conceded per game	1.50	2.10
Match goals	2.33	3.40	3.15
Over 1.5	67%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	40%
Both teams scored	33%	60%	63%
Clean sheets	17%	10%
Failed to score	67%	30%
Games	6	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SC Paderborn 07	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	3.83
Corners conceded	6.17	6.00
Match total	10.50	9.83	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.33
Opponent cards	1.17	2.17
Match total	2.50	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	SC Paderborn 07	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	3.60
Corners conceded	4.70	6.40
Match total	9.80	10.00	10.72
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.50
Opponent cards	2.00	2.60
Match total	3.70	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.