Bundesliga Gameweek 7 Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig
RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

RB Leipzig are clear favourites.

RB Leipzig are the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 42). RB Leipzig come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. RB Leipzig have 2.8 days of rest, SV Elversberg 7 and have to travel 434 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel434 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d4 · 2
RB Leipzig63%
Draw18%
SV Elversberg19%
Expected goals 2.62 – 1.43
RB Leipzig60%
Draw23%
SV Elversberg17%
Expected goals 1.93 – 0.93
RB Leipzig63%
Draw18%
SV Elversberg19%
Expected goals 2.62 – 1.43
RB Leipzig54%
Draw20%
SV Elversberg26%
Expected goals 2.34 – 1.60
RB Leipzig65%
Draw18%
SV Elversberg17%
Expected goals 2.58 – 1.26
Over 2.5 77% Both score 71% Likeliest score 2–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leipzig)
12°CMainly clear
  • Precipitation 29%
  • Wind 14 km/h
  • Humidity 48%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for RB Leipzig and SV Elversberg. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

RB LeipzigSV Elversberg
68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 42
67 Current StrengthIn forecast 42
76 AttackIn forecast 44
53 DefenceIn forecast 37
78 Form indexContext 60
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack+14%
Defense risk−14%

SV Elversberg

Attack+4%
Defense risk+14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

RB LeipzigSV Elversberg
2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
2.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.45
1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.17
+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.55
83% Scored inContext 67%
50% Clean sheetsContext 17%
17.67 ShotsContext 11.17
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67
37% On target shareContext 42%
12.67 Shots in the boxContext 8.17
69% Box shareContext 72%
15% ConversionContext 18%
1.25 OffsidesContext 3.20
17.00 Shots allowedContext 22.00
7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
4.00 BlocksContext 8.50
6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.17
77% Save rateContext 59%
53% PossessionIn forecast 44%
508 PassesContext 382
441 Accurate passesContext 303
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.11 Team ratingContext 6.82
9.83 FoulsContext 11.67
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.17
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
1.92 xGVia Att/Def 1.46
1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.94
90% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.40 ShotsContext 11.20
5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20
36% On target shareContext 38%
11.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.56
69% Box shareContext 66%
13% ConversionContext 21%
1.29 OffsidesContext 2.86
14.20 Shots allowedContext 16.90
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
3.00 BlocksContext 6.33
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
69% Save rateContext 59%
54% PossessionIn forecast 48%
508 PassesContext 387
443 Accurate passesContext 309
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.97 Team ratingContext 6.83
9.30 FoulsContext 11.50
12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.40
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km4,185 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts
SV Elversberg
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel434 km1,132 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
  • D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
  • W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
RB Leipzig SV Elversberg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 53Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 21 Oct7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 17 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km434 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,185 km1,132 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 41 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one76.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct
20N. Kristof(G)
21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah
8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel
7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov
42David Mokwa

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
RB Leipzig No reported absences
SV Elversberg No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • SV Elversberg+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
3-0-0
Scored
4.67
Conceded
0.00
SV Elversberg · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentRB LeipzigSV Elversberg
Bayern München L 1–6 A L 1–2 H
Bayer Leverkusen L 0–2 A W 3–2 H
Borussia Mönchengladbach W 3–0 H W 4–3 A
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

RB LeipzigSV ElversbergForecast
Scored per game 2.672.00
Conceded per game 1.831.83
Match goals 4.503.83 4.05
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 83%67% 77%
Over 3.5 67%50%
Both teams scored 33%67% 71%
Clean sheets 50%17%
Failed to score 17%33%
Games66
RB LeipzigSV ElversbergForecast
Scored per game 2.102.00
Conceded per game 2.001.83
Match goals 4.103.83 4.05
Over 1.5 90%67%
Over 2.5 80%67% 77%
Over 3.5 60%50%
Both teams scored 50%67% 71%
Clean sheets 40%17%
Failed to score 10%33%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

RB LeipzigSV ElversbergLeague
Corners
Corners won5.503.67
Corners conceded6.838.00
Match total12.3311.6710.72
Over 8.5100% 6/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.567% 4/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards1.002.17
Opponent cards1.501.83
Match total2.504.003.51
Over 3.533% 2/650% 3/6
Over 4.517% 1/633% 2/6
RB LeipzigSV ElversbergLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.00
Corners conceded5.706.20
Match total10.5010.2010.72
Over 8.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.301.90
Opponent cards1.302.30
Match total2.604.203.51
Over 3.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2 2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
4 1 76-90
SV Elversberg6 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
4 1 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90
SV Elversberg10 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
7 3 0-15
5 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
5 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
VfB Stuttgart Borussia Mönchengladbach Oct 2319:30 FSV Mainz 05 Werder Bremen Oct 2414:30 FC Augsburg Union Berlin Oct 2414:30 RB Leipzig SV Elversberg Oct 2414:30 SC Paderborn 07 Hamburger SV Oct 2414:30 1.FC Köln FC Schalke 04 Oct 2414:30 Borussia Dortmund Eintracht Frankfurt Oct 2417:30 1899 Hoffenheim Bayer Leverkusen Oct 2514:30 SC Freiburg Bayern München Oct 2516:30