Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 10:30 Seyrantepe Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu 1, Diyarbakır
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Our take

Amed are clear favourites.

Amed are the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Amed. Amed have 7.8 days of rest, Eyüpspor 8 and have to travel 1,026 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,026 kmRest days7.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Amed74%
Draw16%
Eyüpspor10%
Expected goals 2.55 – 0.85
Amed61%
Draw22%
Eyüpspor16%
Expected goals 1.96 – 0.91
Amed74%
Draw16%
Eyüpspor10%
Expected goals 2.55 – 0.85
Amed67%
Draw19%
Eyüpspor14%
Expected goals 2.27 – 0.95
Amed74%
Draw16%
Eyüpspor10%
Expected goals 2.55 – 0.85
Over 2.5 66% Both score 53% Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Diyarbakır)
18°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 27%
  • Wind 4 km/h
  • Humidity 71%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Amed and Eyüpspor. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AmedEyüpspor
34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 13
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 13
38 AttackIn forecast 9
46 DefenceIn forecast 10
66 Form indexContext 5
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Amed

Attack+38%
Defense risk−27%

Eyüpspor

Attack−12%
Defense risk+10%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

AmedEyüpspor
2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.25
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.75
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 0.71
0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
+0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.46
88% Scored inContext 13%
38% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.25 ShotsContext 11.00
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.25
33% On target shareContext 30%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 6.71
53% Box shareContext 58%
16% ConversionContext 2%
2.83 OffsidesContext 1.33
9.25 Shots allowedContext 13.38
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63
3.00 BlocksContext 3.75
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
68% Save rateContext 53%
47% PossessionIn forecast 50%
386 PassesContext 397
317 Accurate passesContext 338
82% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.52
14.00 FoulsContext 10.00
10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 16.00
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.84 xGVia Att/Def 0.74
0.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78
+0.41 Goals minus xGContext +0.16
88% Scored inContext 30%
38% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.25 ShotsContext 10.40
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40
33% On target shareContext 33%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 5.78
53% Box shareContext 51%
16% ConversionContext 9%
2.83 OffsidesContext 1.50
9.25 Shots allowedContext 13.80
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60
3.00 BlocksContext 3.90
2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.20
68% Save rateContext 57%
47% PossessionIn forecast 46%
386 PassesContext 368
317 Accurate passesContext 308
82% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.93 Team ratingContext 6.61
14.00 FoulsContext 10.10
10.25 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70
3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 8 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Amed
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,001 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 11 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Konyaspor1–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctA · Genclerbirligi2–21.8 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Besiktas3–21.4 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Istanbul Basaksehir5–01.5 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Kasimpasa2–21.3 xPts
Eyüpspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,026 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 5 · 0 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Erzurumspor FK0–20.6 xPts
  • L12 OctH · Goztepe0–41.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Fenerbahce0–80.4 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Rizespor0–21.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · Çorum FK0–31.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Amed Eyüpspor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Oct8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,026 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,001 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one6.26

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Amed Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Konyaspor (H) 1–0, 17 Oct
40A. Lafont(G)
17C. Meraş 4D. Bates 21Mehmet Yeşil 7E. Krasniqi
8F. Soyalp 22R. Raveloson
10S. Ballet 91D. Sabi'a 93R. Lutin
99G. Orban
Eyüpspor Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Erzurumspor FK (A) 0–2, 17 Oct
1E. Bilgin(G)
21S. Giordano 33Z. Jules 4S. Yaşar 5J. El Yamiq 77K. Michalak
15Charles-Andre Raux Yao 28T. İlter 88C. Massanga
9Y. Barası 98B. Boutobba

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Amed No reported absences
Eyüpspor No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Amed+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Eyüpspor+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Amed · Home 3.00points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
5-0-0
Scored
2.80
Conceded
0.60
Eyüpspor · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-0-4
Scored
0.00
Conceded
3.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goal timing

Amed8 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
4 61-75
4 3 76-90
Eyüpspor8 games · scored 2 · conceded 22
5 0-15
5 16-30
1 2 31-45
6 46-60
61-75
1 4 76-90
Amed8 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
4 61-75
4 3 76-90
Eyüpspor10 games · scored 9 · conceded 25
5 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 2 31-45
6 46-60
1 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.