Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 16:00 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, İstanbul
Kasimpasa 7th · 13 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Besiktas 5th · 15 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Besiktas are slight favourites.

Besiktas are the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Besiktas. Kasimpasa have 8.2 days of rest, Besiktas 6 and have to travel 0 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel0 kmRest days8.2 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 3
Kasimpasa23%
Draw23%
Besiktas54%
Expected goals 1.22 – 1.97
Kasimpasa26%
Draw26%
Besiktas48%
Expected goals 1.12 – 1.60
Kasimpasa23%
Draw23%
Besiktas54%
Expected goals 1.22 – 1.97
Kasimpasa17%
Draw21%
Besiktas62%
Expected goals 1.09 – 2.20
Kasimpasa24%
Draw23%
Besiktas53%
Expected goals 1.22 – 1.90
Over 2.5 62% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İstanbul)
13°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 22%
  • Wind 8 km/h
  • Humidity 90%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Kasimpasa and Besiktas. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

KasimpasaBesiktas
23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52
23 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
21 AttackIn forecast 60
32 DefenceIn forecast 48
42 Form indexContext 62
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kasimpasa

Attack−18%
Defense risk+48%

Besiktas

Attack0%
Defense risk−11%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

KasimpasaBesiktas
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25
1.08 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.14 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09
+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
88% Scored inContext 75%
25% Clean sheetsContext 25%
12.13 ShotsContext 16.57
3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.14
31% On target shareContext 37%
6.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.29
52% Box shareContext 56%
12% ConversionContext 11%
2.40 OffsidesContext 3.43
13.88 Shots allowedContext 9.57
4.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.43
4.29 BlocksContext 3.40
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
77% Save rateContext 68%
42% PossessionIn forecast 61%
334 PassesContext 488
264 Accurate passesContext 422
79% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.98
14.25 FoulsContext 13.71
12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
2.75 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40
1.10 xGVia Att/Def 2.06
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
+0.40 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
90% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
11.10 ShotsContext 16.75
3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25
32% On target shareContext 37%
6.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.88
57% Box shareContext 64%
14% ConversionContext 14%
2.29 OffsidesContext 3.00
13.70 Shots allowedContext 11.25
4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50
3.78 BlocksContext 3.38
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88
77% Save rateContext 64%
41% PossessionIn forecast 59%
317 PassesContext 481
248 Accurate passesContext 410
78% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.87 Team ratingContext 6.97
14.60 FoulsContext 11.44
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 15.22
3.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kasimpasa
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 8 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Samsunspor4–11.6 xPts
  • L9 OctA · Galatasaray1–30.6 xPts
  • D18 SepH · Konyaspor0–01.7 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Genclerbirligi2–11.4 xPts
  • D6 SepH · Amed2–21.5 xPts
Besiktas
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected
  • L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
  • W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Kasimpasa Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 24 Oct6Süper Lig 2026-2027, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km0 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km1,807 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 31 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one54.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kasimpasa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Samsunspor (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1A. Gianniotis(G)
45A. Karapo 27M. Ilie 4Adem Arous 2C. Winck Neto
26K. Demirbay 16A. Baldursson
7A. Kol 51Elson Mendes 17J. Rak-Sakyi
9A. Benedyczak
Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed
4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct
1A. Nübel(G)
33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo
6S. Özcan
19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý
28D. Vlahović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Kasimpasa No reported absences
Besiktas No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Kasimpasa+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Besiktas+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Kasimpasa · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-3-0
Scored
1.75
Conceded
1.00
Besiktas · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-0-3
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentKasimpasaBesiktas
Amed D 2–2 H L 2–3 A
Çorum FK W 1–0 A W 6–2 H
Trabzonspor D 1–1 H L 0–2 A
Points5 of 9 · 1.67 per game3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Kasimpasa wins2 draws1 Besiktas wins
Goals per game1.83 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 19 Mar 2026Besiktas2–1Kasimpasa
  • 26 Oct 2025Kasimpasa1–1Besiktas
  • 7 Apr 2025Kasimpasa1–1Besiktas
  • 2 Nov 2024Besiktas1–3Kasimpasa
  • 26 May 2024Kasimpasa2–1Besiktas
  • 5 Jan 2024Besiktas1–3Kasimpasa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

KasimpasaBesiktasForecast
Scored per game 1.502.00
Conceded per game 1.131.25
Match goals 2.633.25 3.19
Over 1.5 75%75%
Over 2.5 50%63% 62%
Over 3.5 38%25%
Both teams scored 75%50% 61%
Clean sheets 25%25%
Failed to score 13%25%
Games88
KasimpasaBesiktasForecast
Scored per game 1.502.20
Conceded per game 1.201.40
Match goals 2.703.60 3.19
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 50%70% 62%
Over 3.5 40%40%
Both teams scored 70%60% 61%
Clean sheets 30%10%
Failed to score 10%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

KasimpasaBesiktasLeague
Corners
Corners won4.436.71
Corners conceded6.864.14
Match total11.2910.859.12
Over 8.586% 6/786% 6/7
Over 9.571% 5/771% 5/7
Over 10.557% 4/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards2.752.50
Opponent cards2.132.88
Match total4.885.384.04
Over 3.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 4.550% 4/863% 5/8
KasimpasaBesiktasLeague
Corners
Corners won4.115.78
Corners conceded6.674.44
Match total10.7810.229.12
Over 8.589% 8/967% 6/9
Over 9.556% 5/956% 5/9
Over 10.544% 4/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards3.202.20
Opponent cards2.202.60
Match total5.404.804.04
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Kasimpasa8 games · scored 12 · conceded 9
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
1 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 3 76-90
Besiktas8 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
1 1 0-15
4 4 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 1 76-90
Kasimpasa10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 5 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90
Besiktas10 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2 1 0-15
3 5 16-30
3 31-45
5 2 46-60
4 4 61-75
5 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Süper Lig

View all fixtures →
Konyaspor Galatasaray Oct 3017:00 Erzurumspor FK Çorum FK Oct 3110:30 Kocaelispor Rizespor Oct 3113:00 Fenerbahce Goztepe Oct 3116:00 Amed Eyüpspor Nov 110:30 Istanbul Basaksehir Samsunspor Nov 113:00 Trabzonspor Gazişehir Gaziantep Nov 113:00 Kasimpasa Besiktas Nov 116:00 Genclerbirligi Alanyaspor Nov 217:00