Kocaelispor vs Rizespor

Süper Lig Gameweek 10 Sat, Oct 31 · 13:00 Yıldız Entegre Kocaeli Stadyumu, Kocaeli

Kocaelispor 8th · 12 pts · 8 played WLWLL

VS— Compare

Rizespor 12th · 10 pts · 8 played LWDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Kocaelispor have 7.8 days of rest, Rizespor 4.9 and have to travel 1,113 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel1,113 kmRest days7.8 · 4.9Matches / 14d2 · 1

Kocaelispor40%

Draw27%

Rizespor33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.27

Kocaelispor43%

Draw27%

Rizespor30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Kocaelispor40%

Draw27%

Rizespor33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.27

Kocaelispor33%

Draw27%

Rizespor40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.42

Kocaelispor40%

Draw27%

Rizespor32%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.25

Over 2.5 51% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Kocaeli)

8°CDrizzle

Precipitation 36%
Wind 8 km/h
Humidity 92%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Insight Rizespor +0.33 xG difference per match Underlying performance · 10-match window xG for1.36xG against1.03

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Kocaelispor

Rizespor

22 L90 StrengthIn forecast 22

22 Current StrengthIn forecast 22

16 AttackIn forecast 22

32 DefenceIn forecast 35

33 Form indexContext 17

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Kocaelispor

Attack−1%

Defense risk−6%

Rizespor

Attack+2%

Defense risk−14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Kocaelispor

Rizespor

1.13 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.38

0.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.40 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.27

75% Scored inContext 63%

38% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.25 ShotsContext 15.00

4.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

32% On target shareContext 32%

6.25 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

55% Box shareContext 57%

10% ConversionContext 7%

1.86 OffsidesContext 1.67

15.50 Shots allowedContext 13.50

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.25

2.88 BlocksContext 4.43

3.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.13

80% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

401 PassesContext 434

323 Accurate passesContext 367

81% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 10.25

13.88 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.75

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

0.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.36

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.36

60% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

10.40 ShotsContext 15.50

3.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

29% On target shareContext 30%

5.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

56% Box shareContext 59%

9% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.71

14.60 Shots allowedContext 14.10

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

2.60 BlocksContext 4.44

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

80% Save rateContext 71%

51% PossessionIn forecast 54%

415 PassesContext 433

339 Accurate passesContext 367

82% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.81

12.80 FoulsContext 9.90

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Kocaelispor WLWLL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,042 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 6 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Goztepe1–21.4 xPts
L11 OctA · Besiktas1–20.6 xPts
W19 SepH · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–01.6 xPts
L13 SepA · Galatasaray0–10.5 xPts
W6 SepH · Samsunspor1–01.5 xPts

Rizespor LWDLL

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,113 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 17 · 4 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L16 OctA · Çorum FK1–21.0 xPts
L10 OctH · Fenerbahce0–30.9 xPts
D20 SepA · Goztepe2–21.3 xPts
W12 SepA · Eyüpspor2–01.5 xPts
L7 SepH · Alanyaspor0–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Kocaelispor	Rizespor
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 23 Oct	4.9Süper Lig 2026-2027, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,113 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,042 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	7.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Kocaelispor Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Goztepe (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

83S. Öztaşdelen(G)

3Muharrem Cinan 5E. Ortakaya 2A. Dijksteel 22U. Yıldız

10B. Kutlu 14Show 20Mahamadou Susoho

26Metehan Altunbaş 7Daniel Agyei 11Gonçalo Sousa

Rizespor Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Çorum FK (A) 1–2, 16 Oct

75Y. Fofana(G)

17Z. Ariss 93M. Sagnan 21S. Bakayoko 54M. Pala

14T. Antalyalı

7V. Mihăilă 20Q. Laçi 10I. Olawoyin 11A. Awokoya-Mebude

9A. Sowe

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Kocaelispor No reported absences

Rizespor No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Kocaelispor+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Rizespor+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Kocaelispor · Home 2.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 0.50

Rizespor · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Kocaelispor	Rizespor
Goztepe	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 A
Samsunspor	W 1–0 H	L 0–2 H
Konyaspor	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Kocaelispor wins1 draws1 Rizespor wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

20 Feb 2026Rizespor2–0Kocaelispor
21 Sep 2025Kocaelispor1–1Rizespor

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Kocaelispor	Rizespor	Forecast
Scored per game	1.13	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.38
Match goals	2.13	2.38	2.70
Over 1.5	75%	75%
Over 2.5	38%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	13%
Both teams scored	38%	38%	55%
Clean sheets	38%	25%
Failed to score	25%	38%
Games	8	8

	Kocaelispor	Rizespor	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.70
Match goals	1.90	2.70	2.70
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	30%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	55%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Kocaelispor	Rizespor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.38	5.43
Corners conceded	5.25	3.86
Match total	8.63	9.29	9.12
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	29% 2/7
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.88
Opponent cards	1.75	1.38
Match total	3.25	3.26	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 4/8	50% 4/8
Over 4.5	13% 1/8	25% 2/8

	Kocaelispor	Rizespor	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	5.78
Corners conceded	4.70	3.67
Match total	7.90	9.45	9.12
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.60
Opponent cards	2.00	1.40
Match total	3.90	3.00	4.04
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.