UEFA Champions League Matchday 6 Wed, Dec 9 · 20:00 Emirates Stadium, London
Arsenal 7th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Real Madrid 8th · 6 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,264 kmRest days4.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d3 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Arsenal—%
Draw—%
Real Madrid—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (London)

Forecast from 24 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Arsenal and Real Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

ArsenalReal Madrid
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
94 Current StrengthIn forecast 89
86 AttackIn forecast 89
95 DefenceIn forecast 85
92 Form indexContext 91
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Arsenal

Attack—
Defense risk—

Real Madrid

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

ArsenalReal Madrid
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00
0.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 100%
100% Clean sheetsContext 0%
21.00 ShotsContext 16.00
8.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 8.00
38% On target shareContext 50%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 12.50
66% Box shareContext 78%
10% ConversionContext 19%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.50
4.50 Shots allowedContext 17.50
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
2.50 BlocksContext 4.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50
100% Save rateContext 79%
58% PossessionIn forecast 41%
576 PassesContext 405
524 Accurate passesContext 345
91% Pass accuracyContext 85%
7.17 Team ratingContext 6.89
12.00 FoulsContext 10.00
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
0.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 2.32
0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.38
90% Scored inContext 90%
60% Clean sheetsContext 20%
13.50 ShotsContext 16.90
4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30
34% On target shareContext 43%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 12.20
71% Box shareContext 71%
12% ConversionContext 16%
3.60 OffsidesContext 2.00
10.80 Shots allowedContext 14.20
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10
3.10 BlocksContext 3.80
2.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80
75% Save rateContext 75%
57% PossessionIn forecast 50%
508 PassesContext 501
441 Accurate passesContext 446
87% Pass accuracyContext 89%
7.06 Team ratingContext 7.13
11.20 FoulsContext 8.90
14.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Arsenal
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km26 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 92 · 12 pts vs 5.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Nottingham Forest1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Lille3–02.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Leeds2–12.2 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Brighton0–31.8 xPts
  • W12 SepA · Sunderland2–02.0 xPts
Real Madrid
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,264 km646 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
  • W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
  • W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Arsenal Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 15Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec3.2La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,264 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways26 km646 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 3 / 51 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one2.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Arsenal Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Nottingham Forest (A) 1–0, 18 Oct
1David Raya(G)
33R. Calafiori 6Gabriel Magalhães 15E. Konsa 4B. White
39Bruno Guimarães 41D. Rice
10E. Eze 8M. Ødegaard 7B. Saka
29K. Havertz
Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct
1T. Courtois(G)
17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler
25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick
10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Arsenal Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Real Madrid Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Arsenal · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
3.00
Conceded
0.00
Real Madrid · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 Arsenal wins0 draws0 Real Madrid wins
Goals per game2.50 – 0.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%
  • 16 Apr 2025Real Madrid1–2Arsenal
  • 8 Apr 2025Arsenal3–0Real Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

ArsenalReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 2.003.00
Conceded per game 0.002.00
Match goals 2.005.00
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%100%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 0%100%
Clean sheets 100%0%
Failed to score 0%0%
Games22
ArsenalReal MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.702.70
Conceded per game 0.601.20
Match goals 2.303.90
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 60%80%
Over 3.5 0%60%
Both teams scored 30%70%
Clean sheets 60%20%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

ArsenalReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won6.006.50
Corners conceded1.008.00
Match total7.0014.509.71
Over 8.50% 0/1100% 2/2
Over 9.50% 0/1100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/1100% 2/2
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards1.503.00
Match total3.004.003.80
Over 3.50% 0/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
ArsenalReal MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.676.30
Corners conceded4.445.00
Match total9.1111.309.71
Over 8.544% 4/970% 7/10
Over 9.544% 4/970% 7/10
Over 10.533% 3/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.602.20
Opponent cards2.802.50
Match total4.404.703.80
Over 3.560% 6/1080% 8/10
Over 4.550% 5/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Arsenal2 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
4 61-75
76-90
Real Madrid2 games · scored 6 · conceded 4
1 0-15
2 1 16-30
31-45
2 46-60
61-75
3 1 76-90
Arsenal9 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
2 1 0-15
2 16-30
2 31-45
3 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
2 76-90
Real Madrid10 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2 0-15
8 1 16-30
4 1 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 1 61-75
9 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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