UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 17:45 Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia 34th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
AZ Alkmaar 20th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites.

AZ Alkmaar are the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 7). Ararat-Armenia have 6.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 4.2 and have to travel 3,295 km. Weather to note: thunderstorm.

Away travel3,295 kmRest days6.9 · 4.2Matches / 14d1 · 3
Ararat-Armenia12%
Draw17%
AZ Alkmaar72%
Expected goals 1.01 – 2.64
Ararat-Armenia13%
Draw20%
AZ Alkmaar66%
Expected goals 0.84 – 2.12
Ararat-Armenia12%
Draw17%
AZ Alkmaar72%
Expected goals 1.01 – 2.64
Ararat-Armenia8%
Draw13%
AZ Alkmaar79%
Expected goals 0.91 – 2.96
Ararat-Armenia12%
Draw18%
AZ Alkmaar70%
Expected goals 0.98 – 2.50
Over 2.5 71% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–2
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Yerevan)
13°CThunderstorm
  • Precipitation 62%
  • Wind 3 km/h
  • Humidity 95%
Thunderstorm
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ararat-Armenia and AZ Alkmaar. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
7 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47
7 Current StrengthIn forecast 47
8 AttackIn forecast 52
8 DefenceIn forecast 49
— Form indexContext 43
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—
Defense risk—

AZ Alkmaar

Attack+41%
Defense risk−35%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ Alkmaar
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.46 xGVia Att/Def 2.07
1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67
-0.46 Goals minus xGContext -1.07
100% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.00 ShotsContext 12.50
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
21% On target shareContext 32%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.00
62% Box shareContext 64%
7% ConversionContext 8%
— OffsidesContext —
18.50 Shots allowedContext 13.00
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
6.00 BlocksContext 3.00
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
39% Save rateContext 88%
50% PossessionIn forecast 57%
434 PassesContext 538
375 Accurate passesContext 451
86% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.47 Team ratingContext 6.78
14.50 FoulsContext 13.00
19.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
— xGVia Att/Def 2.20
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40
— Goals minus xGContext -0.20
90% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.33 ShotsContext 16.90
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30
27% On target shareContext 37%
— Shots in the boxContext 11.67
— Box shareContext 65%
12% ConversionContext 12%
— OffsidesContext 2.20
17.67 Shots allowedContext 9.70
6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40
4.80 BlocksContext 2.89
— Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30
39% Save rateContext 68%
48% PossessionIn forecast 59%
— PassesContext 543
— Accurate passesContext 466
— Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.21 Team ratingContext 6.87
11.00 FoulsContext 12.40
16.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ararat-Armenia
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km4,319 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 23 · 0 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Jagiellonia1–30.5 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sparta Praha1–40.9 xPts
AZ Alkmaar
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel3,295 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
  • W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ararat-Armenia AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 10Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct4.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km3,295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways4,319 km353 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 12 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one14.13.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ararat-Armenia Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Jagiellonia (A) 1–3, 15 Oct
98João Bravim(G)
5Luis Felipe 17M. Carlier 43Bruno Wilson
16E. Grigoryan 20A. Tera 8J. Balanta 2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan
AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct
28J. De Busser(G)
5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra
6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie
11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir
9M. Meerdink

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ararat-Armenia No reported absences
AZ Alkmaar No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Ararat-Armenia+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Ararat-Armenia · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
4.00
AZ Alkmaar · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ AlkmaarForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 3.501.00
Match goals 4.502.00 3.66
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 100%50% 71%
Over 3.5 100%0%
Both teams scored 100%50% 60%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Ararat-ArmeniaAZ AlkmaarForecast
Scored per game 1.302.00
Conceded per game 1.601.20
Match goals 2.903.20 3.66
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 50%50% 71%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 60%60% 60%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Ararat-ArmeniaAZ AlkmaarLeague
Corners
Corners won2.505.00
Corners conceded7.505.00
Match total10.0010.009.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards2.503.00
Opponent cards1.503.50
Match total4.006.503.76
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Ararat-ArmeniaAZ AlkmaarLeague
Corners
Corners won3.837.30
Corners conceded7.333.60
Match total11.1610.909.76
Over 8.567% 4/670% 7/10
Over 9.567% 4/660% 6/10
Over 10.550% 3/660% 6/10
Cards
Cards1.901.70
Opponent cards2.901.90
Match total4.803.603.76
Over 3.570% 7/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ararat-Armenia2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
AZ Alkmaar2 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 20 · conceded 12
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
3 1 31-45
5 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
6 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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