Ipswich
Attack−6%
Defense risk+5%
Our take
Bournemouth are slight favourites.
Bournemouth are the stronger side on L90 Strength (76 vs 49). Ipswich have 8 days of rest, Bournemouth 2.8 and have to travel 258 km.
Away travel258 kmRest days8 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 3
Ipswich28%
Draw23%
Bournemouth49%
Ipswich27%
Draw26%
Bournemouth46%
Ipswich28%
Draw23%
Bournemouth49%
Ipswich21%
Draw21%
Bournemouth58%
Ipswich28%
Draw24%
Bournemouth48%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 65%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ipswich, Suffolk)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Ipswich and Bournemouth. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Bournemouth
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.82xG against1.15
-
Trend
Ipswich
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Ipswich
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Ipswich
2.1
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Bournemouth
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Bournemouth
+0.67
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.82xG against1.15
-
Trend
Ipswich
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Ipswich
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Bournemouth
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Bournemouth
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
IpswichBournemouth
49
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
49
Current StrengthIn forecast
77
59
AttackIn forecast
83
50
DefenceIn forecast
82
64
Form indexContext
74
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBournemouth
Attack+27%
Defense risk−17%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
IpswichBournemouth
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.86
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-0.52
71%
Scored inContext
86%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
11.00
ShotsContext
15.14
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.14
40%
On target shareContext
34%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
66%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.60
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.86
Shots allowedContext
9.57
5.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.00
BlocksContext
2.80
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
59%
Save rateContext
55%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
401
PassesContext
433
331
Accurate passesContext
351
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.71
FoulsContext
13.00
9.14
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.82
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
70%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
15.80
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
41%
On target shareContext
32%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
67%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
5.10
BlocksContext
3.29
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
66%
Save rateContext
61%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
396
PassesContext
434
323
Accurate passesContext
353
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.70
FoulsContext
12.20
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Ipswich
LWLWL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km425 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 64 · 6 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Bournemouth
WLLWW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel258 km2,926 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Ipswich |
Bournemouth |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 28 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 258 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 425 km | 2,926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Ipswich
Last XI · not confirmed
28C. Walton(G)
24J. Greaves
6I. Diop
26D. O'Shea
3L. Davis
25E. Palacios
12Florentino
42A. Ouattara
10J. Enciso
38D. Maeda
19Emersonn
Bournemouth
Last XI · not confirmed
1Đ. Petrović(G)
3A. Truffert
14António Silva
5J. Hill
15A. Smith
10R. Christie
12T. Adams
16M. Tavernier
4L. Cook
37Rayan
9Evanilson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Ipswich
No reported absences
Bournemouth
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Ipswich+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bournemouth+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Ipswich · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Bournemouth · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Ipswich | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | L 2–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Everton | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Liverpool | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Sunderland | W 2–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Ipswich wins0 draws1 Bournemouth wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 2 Apr 2025Bournemouth1–2Ipswich
- 8 Dec 2024Ipswich1–2Bournemouth
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.86 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.14 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 71% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.71 | 3.00 | 3.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 60% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 70% | 65% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 4.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 8.15 | 8.57 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.57 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Ipswich | Bournemouth | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 4.60 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Ipswich7 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
1
76-90
Bournemouth7 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
Ipswich10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
2
4
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
61-75
8
2
76-90
Bournemouth10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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