Fiorentina vs Juventus

Serie A Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 19:45 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Fiorentina 18th · 4 pts · 7 played LWDLL

VS— Compare

Juventus 8th · 11 pts · 7 played DLWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Juventus are slight favourites.

Juventus are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Juventus. Fiorentina have 6.1 days of rest, Juventus 3 and have to travel 317 km.

Away travel317 kmRest days6.1 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3

Fiorentina23%

Draw24%

Juventus53%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.82

Fiorentina26%

Draw26%

Juventus48%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.61

Fiorentina23%

Draw24%

Juventus53%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.82

Fiorentina17%

Draw22%

Juventus61%

Expected goals 0.99 – 2.04

Fiorentina23%

Draw23%

Juventus54%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.93

Over 2.5 56% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 17 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Firenze)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Fiorentina 5 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Fiorentina

Juventus

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

42 AttackIn forecast 57

34 DefenceIn forecast 76

20 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Fiorentina

Attack−27%

Defense risk+31%

Juventus

Attack+10%

Defense risk−4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Fiorentina

Juventus

1.14 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14

1.59 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.50

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

71% Scored inContext 86%

0% Clean sheetsContext 43%

16.43 ShotsContext 16.71

5.43 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.86

33% On target shareContext 35%

10.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.86

61% Box shareContext 53%

7% ConversionContext 8%

1.83 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.14 Shots allowedContext 7.29

5.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.71

2.00 BlocksContext 1.83

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

55% Save rateContext 67%

47% PossessionIn forecast 58%

390 PassesContext 547

328 Accurate passesContext 480

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.54 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.00 FoulsContext 12.57

12.43 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.50

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.61

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

70% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

14.90 ShotsContext 16.70

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80

32% On target shareContext 35%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

61% Box shareContext 60%

7% ConversionContext 11%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.75

13.90 Shots allowedContext 8.20

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

2.40 BlocksContext 1.89

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.13

70% Save rateContext 68%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

388 PassesContext 532

324 Accurate passesContext 466

84% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.85

11.10 FoulsContext 12.60

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Fiorentina LWDLL

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km227 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 4 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -2.8 vs expected

L18 OctH · Como1–31.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Genoa1–21.4 xPts
D20 SepH · Napoli1–11.2 xPts
W11 SepA · Venezia4–21.6 xPts
L5 SepH · Torino1–21.6 xPts

Juventus WWDWL

Rest3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel317 km1,983 km in 14d

Schedule load34%Moderate

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

L18 OctH · Lazio0–32.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Celta Vigo2–11.6 xPts
D11 OctA · Cagliari1–11.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Atalanta2–01.9 xPts
W17 SepH · NEC Nijmegen5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Fiorentina	Juventus
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 34
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Serie A 2026-2027, 2 Nov	3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	317 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	227 km	1,983 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	2 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	14.9	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Fiorentina Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Como (H) 1–3, 18 Oct

43David de Gea(G)

33Viery 5M. Pongračić 3R. Drăgușin 20Álex Jiménez

44N. Fagioli 27C. Ndour

25A. Njie 28Pote 30Franco Mastantuono

32Mateo Pellegrino

Juventus Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Lazio (H) 0–3, 18 Oct

25G. Vicario(G)

2M. Çelik 26J. Lucumí 3Bremer 15P. Kalulu

29P. Sarr 12Douglas Luiz

17Kerim Alajbegović 22W. McKennie 31N. González

9R. Kolo Muani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Fiorentina No reported absences

Juventus No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Fiorentina+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Juventus+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Fiorentina · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 2.25

Juventus · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

Opponent	Fiorentina	Juventus
Frosinone	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 A
Points	0 of 3 · 0.00 per game	3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Fiorentina wins3 draws4 Juventus wins

Goals per game1.10 – 0.80 Over 2.520% Both scored30% Clean sheets30% · 40%

17 May 2026Juventus0–2Fiorentina
22 Nov 2025Fiorentina1–1Juventus
16 Mar 2025Fiorentina3–0Juventus
29 Dec 2024Juventus2–2Fiorentina
7 Apr 2024Juventus1–0Fiorentina
5 Nov 2023Fiorentina0–1Juventus

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Fiorentina	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.14	1.29
Conceded per game	2.43	1.14
Match goals	3.57	2.43	2.94
Over 1.5	100%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	29%	56%
Over 3.5	43%	14%
Both teams scored	71%	43%	57%
Clean sheets	0%	43%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Fiorentina	Juventus	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.80
Conceded per game	1.80	1.10
Match goals	2.90	2.90	2.94
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	56%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	30%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Fiorentina	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	8.00
Corners conceded	3.86	3.14
Match total	9.15	11.14	9.38
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	71% 5/7
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.29
Opponent cards	2.14	2.29
Match total	4.14	3.58	3.43
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	14% 1/7

	Fiorentina	Juventus	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	7.67
Corners conceded	3.90	3.22
Match total	8.40	10.89	9.38
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.00
Match total	3.50	3.40	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.