Lazio vs Cagliari – 1 Nov 2026

Serie A Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 14:00 Stadio Olimpico, Roma

Lazio 2nd · 19 pts · 7 played WDWWW

VS— Compare

Cagliari 7th · 13 pts · 7 played WWWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Lazio are clear favourites.

Lazio are the stronger side on L90 Strength (62 vs 33). Lazio have 4.9 days of rest, Cagliari 4.8 and have to travel 412 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel412 kmRest days4.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d3 · 3

Lazio62%

Draw22%

Cagliari16%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.91

Lazio62%

Draw22%

Cagliari16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.91

Lazio62%

Draw22%

Cagliari16%

Expected goals 1.97 – 0.91

Lazio54%

Draw25%

Cagliari21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.02

Lazio64%

Draw20%

Cagliari16%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.02

Over 2.5 55% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 12 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Roma)

20°COvercast

Precipitation 21%
Wind 3 km/h
Humidity 74%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Lazio

Cagliari

62 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

62 Current StrengthIn forecast 33

53 AttackIn forecast 31

63 DefenceIn forecast 31

87 Form indexContext 72

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lazio

Attack+14%

Defense risk−16%

Cagliari

Attack−15%

Defense risk+8%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Lazio

Cagliari

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

0.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.95

+0.67 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

100% Scored inContext 71%

57% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.71 ShotsContext 10.57

4.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.67

34% On target shareContext 38%

6.86 Shots in the boxContext 6.57

56% Box shareContext 60%

16% ConversionContext 8%

1.75 OffsidesContext 3.00

12.43 Shots allowedContext 19.57

4.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.29

3.43 BlocksContext 4.86

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

85% Save rateContext 81%

48% PossessionIn forecast 41%

446 PassesContext 408

381 Accurate passesContext 345

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.00 FoulsContext 10.43

11.29 Fouls sufferedContext 8.57

1.86 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.15 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

+0.45 Goals minus xGContext -0.31

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.90 ShotsContext 13.40

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

39% On target shareContext 35%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 8.50

56% Box shareContext 61%

13% ConversionContext 8%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.75

12.20 Shots allowedContext 17.10

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

3.00 BlocksContext 4.10

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

78% Save rateContext 78%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

450 PassesContext 429

388 Accurate passesContext 365

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.92

12.00 FoulsContext 10.00

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lazio WDWWW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,745 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Juventus3–00.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Monza3–12.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Venezia2–02.2 xPts
D12 SepH · AC Milan2–21.5 xPts
W7 SepA · Udinese2–11.3 xPts

Cagliari WWWDL

Rest4.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel412 km2,236 km in 14d

Schedule load26%Moderate

Form 72 · 10 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · +3.8 vs expected

L19 OctA · Monza0–41.4 xPts
D11 OctH · Juventus1–11.1 xPts
W19 SepA · Udinese1–01.2 xPts
W12 SepA · Atalanta2–10.8 xPts
W7 SepH · Lecce1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Lazio	Cagliari
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 26
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 27 Oct	4.8Serie A 2026-2027, 27 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	412 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,745 km	2,236 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lazio Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Juventus (A) 3–0, 18 Oct

35C. Mandas(G)

17Nuno Tavares 25Oliver Provstgaard 37J. Šutalo 15R. Floriani Mussolini

24K. Taylor 21R. Belahyane 16D. Frattesi

10M. Zaccagni 14T. Noslin 11G. Isaksen

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Cagliari Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-1-2 · vs Monza (A) 0–4, 19 Oct

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 15J. Rodríguez 26Y. Mina 2Zé Pedro

4Alessandro Romano 6H. Winks 8M. Adopo

70D. Maldini

18M. Nzola 31Paul Mendy

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Lazio Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.1% of weighted minutes

DEF Patric Rotation 6.68 Def −1.8%
DEF A. Furlanetto Depth 6.80 Def −0.3%

Cagliari Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −2.2% of weighted minutes

DEF Riyad Idrissi Rotation 6.47 Def −2.2%

Total impact vs full squads

Lazio+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Cagliari+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Lazio · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Cagliari · Away 2.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Lazio	Cagliari
Juventus	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 H
Monza	W 3–1 H	L 0–4 A
Udinese	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 A
Points	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

6 Lazio wins2 draws0 Cagliari wins

Goals per game1.88 – 0.63 Over 2.563% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 13%

21 Feb 2026Cagliari0–0Lazio
3 Nov 2025Lazio2–0Cagliari
3 Feb 2025Cagliari1–2Lazio
4 Nov 2024Lazio2–1Cagliari
10 Feb 2024Cagliari1–3Lazio
2 Dec 2023Lazio1–0Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Lazio	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.86
Conceded per game	0.57	1.00
Match goals	2.57	1.86	2.89
Over 1.5	71%	43%
Over 2.5	57%	29%	55%
Over 3.5	29%	14%
Both teams scored	43%	29%	52%
Clean sheets	57%	43%
Failed to score	0%	29%
Games	7	7

	Lazio	Cagliari	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.00
Conceded per game	1.00	1.10
Match goals	2.60	2.10	2.89
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	55%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	40%	40%	52%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Lazio	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	5.14	4.00
Corners conceded	5.00	6.29
Match total	10.14	10.29	9.38
Over 8.5	71% 5/7	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.86	1.29
Opponent cards	3.29	1.14
Match total	5.15	2.43	3.43
Over 3.5	86% 6/7	14% 1/7
Over 4.5	71% 5/7	0% 0/7

	Lazio	Cagliari	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.60
Corners conceded	4.40	5.40
Match total	9.30	10.00	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.30
Opponent cards	2.80	1.30
Match total	5.00	2.60	3.43
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.