AS Roma
Attack+14%
Defense risk−6%
Our take
AS Roma are clear favourites.
AS Roma are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 33). AS Roma have 4 days of rest, Sassuolo 5.1 and have to travel 347 km.
Away travel347 kmRest days4 · 5.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
AS Roma72%
Draw17%
Sassuolo11%
AS Roma70%
Draw19%
Sassuolo11%
AS Roma72%
Draw17%
Sassuolo11%
AS Roma65%
Draw20%
Sassuolo15%
AS Roma74%
Draw16%
Sassuolo11%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Roma)
Forecast from 23 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AS Roma and Sassuolo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
AS Roma
+1.08
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.19xG against1.11
-
Trend
Sassuolo
100%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
AS Roma
5
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
AS Roma
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sassuolo
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Sassuolo
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Attack
-
Insight
AS Roma
+1.08
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.19xG against1.11
-
Trend
AS Roma
2.2
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Sassuolo
100%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Sassuolo
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row -
Insight
Sassuolo
+0.20
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.57xG against1.37
Defence
-
Insight
AS Roma
5
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AS Roma
0.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sassuolo
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Team strength
AS RomaSassuolo
74
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
72
AttackIn forecast
41
75
DefenceIn forecast
32
68
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSassuolo
Attack−25%
Defense risk+40%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
AS RomaSassuolo
2.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.43
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.55
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
86%
Scored inContext
100%
71%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.14
ShotsContext
15.86
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.43
33%
On target shareContext
41%
12.86
Shots in the boxContext
9.57
70%
Box shareContext
60%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
3.57
OffsidesContext
2.17
10.29
Shots allowedContext
15.71
3.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.57
2.60
BlocksContext
4.43
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.57
82%
Save rateContext
70%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
526
PassesContext
446
447
Accurate passesContext
387
85%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.14
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.86
FoulsContext
9.71
8.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.43
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.57
1.11
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
90%
Scored inContext
90%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.80
ShotsContext
14.30
5.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.80
35%
On target shareContext
41%
11.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
70%
Box shareContext
62%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.70
Shots allowedContext
15.20
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
2.57
BlocksContext
3.80
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
76%
Save rateContext
67%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
542
PassesContext
458
466
Accurate passesContext
397
86%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.70
FoulsContext
9.80
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AS Roma
WDDLW
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km4,316 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
Sassuolo
DWLDL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel347 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AS Roma |
Sassuolo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov | 5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 347 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,316 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 8 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 14.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AS Roma
Last XI · not confirmed
95P. Gollini(G)
3K. Koulierakis
5O. Ndicka
26L. Balerdi
2D. Rensch
61N. Pisilli
15M. de Roon
77Emanuele Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora
18M. Soulé
9S. Castro
Sassuolo
Last XI · not confirmed
49A. Murić(G)
3J. Doig
15D. Ćaleta-Car
26C. Odenthal
20I. Van der Brempt
50D. Bakola
18N. Matić
45A. Laurienté
42K. Thorstvedt
10D. Berardi
94S. Esposito
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AS Roma
No reported absences
Sassuolo
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- AS Roma+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sassuolo+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
AS Roma · Home
2.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Sassuolo · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | AS Roma | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Atalanta | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 AS Roma wins2 draws1 Sassuolo wins
Goals per game1.75 – 1.13
Over 2.550%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets38% · 0%
- 10 Jan 2026AS Roma2–0Sassuolo
- 26 Oct 2025Sassuolo0–1AS Roma
- 17 Mar 2024AS Roma1–0Sassuolo
- 3 Dec 2023Sassuolo1–2AS Roma
- 12 Mar 2023AS Roma3–4Sassuolo
- 9 Nov 2022Sassuolo1–1AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| AS Roma | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.29 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.71 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 86% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 100% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| AS Roma | Sassuolo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AS Roma | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.14 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.57 | 6.14 | |
| Match total | 7.71 | 10.43 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 3.29 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| AS Roma | Sassuolo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.40 | 5.90 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.60 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AS Roma7 games · scored 16 · conceded 3
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
Sassuolo7 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
2
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Sassuolo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
