Torino
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Torino are slight favourites.
Torino are the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 28). Torino have 6 days of rest, Lecce 5.9 and have to travel 1,003 km.
Away travel1,003 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 3
Torino49%
Draw26%
Lecce25%
Torino49%
Draw26%
Lecce25%
Torino49%
Draw26%
Lecce25%
Torino42%
Draw27%
Lecce31%
Torino51%
Draw24%
Lecce26%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 11 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Torino)
Forecast from 23 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Torino and Lecce. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Torino
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Lecce
−0.49
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.32xG against1.81
-
Alert
Lecce
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
TorinoLecce
36
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
39
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
39
AttackIn forecast
36
47
DefenceIn forecast
30
75
Form indexContext
35
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
TorinoLecce
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
86%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.29
ShotsContext
11.14
3.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
34%
On target shareContext
42%
5.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.14
60%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
4.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
16.57
Shots allowedContext
14.86
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.43
4.14
BlocksContext
2.83
4.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
73%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
468
PassesContext
346
396
Accurate passesContext
271
84%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.43
FoulsContext
12.86
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
9.14
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.35
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.81
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.30
ShotsContext
10.40
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
32%
On target shareContext
43%
6.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
61%
Box shareContext
68%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
3.25
OffsidesContext
2.50
15.90
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
2.67
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
67%
Save rateContext
69%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
37%
454
PassesContext
312
383
Accurate passesContext
239
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.00
FoulsContext
12.10
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Torino
WLDWW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 75 · 10 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
Lecce
LWLLW
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,003 km860 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Form 35 · 6 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Torino |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov | 5.9Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,003 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,190 km | 860 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.2 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Torino
Last XI · not confirmed
20Lucas Perri(G)
15P. Comuzzo
44A. Ismajli
23Saúl Coco
77Alessio Cacciamani
21Daniel Bragança
8R. Mandragora
45R. Belghali
10N. Vlašić
19C. Adams
18G. Simeone
Lecce
Last XI · not confirmed
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
14Y. Maleh
79Oumar Ngom
29L. Coulibaly
7A. Fatah
69W. Geubbels
11K. N’Dri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Torino
No reported absences
Lecce
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Torino+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lecce+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Torino · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Lecce · Away
1.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Torino | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Udinese | W 2–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 H | L 0–4 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 H | L 0–3 A |
| Points | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 12 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Torino wins1 draws2 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.38
Over 2.513%
Both scored13%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 1 Feb 2026Torino1–0Lecce
- 30 Nov 2025Lecce2–1Torino
- 18 May 2025Lecce1–0Torino
- 15 Sep 2024Torino0–0Lecce
- 16 Feb 2024Torino2–0Lecce
- 28 Oct 2023Lecce0–1Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Torino | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.00 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 71% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 29% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Torino | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Torino | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 4.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 7.43 | 7.86 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 14% 1/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 2.29 | 2.72 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Torino | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 8.10 | 8.00 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 2.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Torino7 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lecce7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
3
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
5
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
