Parma
Attack−8%
Defense risk−5%
Our take
Bologna are slight favourites.
Bologna are the stronger side on L90 Strength (49 vs 31). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bologna. Parma have 4.9 days of rest, Bologna 7.1 and have to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days4.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Parma31%
Draw29%
Bologna40%
Parma33%
Draw27%
Bologna40%
Parma31%
Draw29%
Bologna40%
Parma25%
Draw28%
Bologna47%
Parma32%
Draw27%
Bologna41%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
Forecast from 23 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Parma and Bologna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Parma
Bologna
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
49
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
20
AttackIn forecast
35
33
DefenceIn forecast
48
23
Form indexContext
32
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBologna
Attack+9%
Defense risk−24%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
ParmaBologna
0.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
0.67
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
43%
Scored inContext
57%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.57
ShotsContext
12.57
3.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
32%
On target shareContext
28%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
65%
Box shareContext
65%
5%
ConversionContext
7%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.83
17.00
Shots allowedContext
13.71
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.29
4.29
BlocksContext
4.14
3.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
68%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
394
PassesContext
438
324
Accurate passesContext
380
82%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.68
9.86
FoulsContext
12.71
15.43
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
+0.21
50%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.30
ShotsContext
11.90
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
31%
On target shareContext
31%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
63%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
11%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.20
Shots allowedContext
13.00
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.44
4.50
BlocksContext
3.80
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.67
71%
Save rateContext
60%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
367
PassesContext
437
300
Accurate passesContext
378
82%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.70
10.50
FoulsContext
12.20
14.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
DLWLL
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km961 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 23 · 4 pts vs 7.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
Bologna
DLDWL
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel87 km401 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 32 · 5 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Bologna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9Serie A 2026-2027, 2 Nov | 7.1Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 961 km | 401 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Last XI · not confirmed
40E. Corvi(G)
15E. Delprato
37Mariano Troilo
34Diego Carlos
14E. Valeri
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
27Sascha Britschgi
19E. Touré
80G. Fabbian
9D. Romero
Bologna
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ł. Skorupski(G)
3A. Theate
16N. Casale
36M. Darmian
33Juan Miranda
4T. Pobega
19L. Ferguson
20N. Zortea
28N. Cambiaghi
10F. Bernardeschi
91R. Piccoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
No reported absences
Bologna
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Bologna+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.50
Bologna · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Inter | L 0–3 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Parma wins1 draws1 Bologna wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.75
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 8 Feb 2026Bologna0–1Parma
- 2 Nov 2025Parma1–3Bologna
- 22 Feb 2025Parma2–0Bologna
- 6 Oct 2024Bologna0–0Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.57 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.29 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 57% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 57% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Parma | Bologna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.29 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.14 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 10.50 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.57 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.14 | |
| Match total | 3.28 | 4.14 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Parma | Bologna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.90 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.11 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.80 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Parma7 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Bologna7 games · scored 6 · conceded 10
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
2
0-15
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
Bologna10 games · scored 13 · conceded 15
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
