Frosinone
Attack+1%
Defense risk−9%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Torino. Frosinone have 2.9 days of rest, Torino 4.8 and have to travel 595 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel595 kmRest days2.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 3
Frosinone39%
Draw26%
Torino35%
Frosinone40%
Draw27%
Torino33%
Frosinone39%
Draw26%
Torino35%
Frosinone32%
Draw26%
Torino42%
Frosinone40%
Draw24%
Torino35%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Frosinone)
18°CClear
- Precipitation 15%
- Wind 5 km/h
- Humidity 64%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Frosinone and Torino. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Torino
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Frosinone
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Frosinone
−0.79
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.41xG against2.20
Attack
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FrosinoneTorino
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
41
AttackIn forecast
39
25
DefenceIn forecast
47
69
Form indexContext
75
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTorino
Attack+21%
Defense risk−8%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
FrosinoneTorino
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
71%
Scored inContext
86%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
17.29
ShotsContext
9.29
5.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.14
31%
On target shareContext
34%
10.86
Shots in the boxContext
5.71
65%
Box shareContext
60%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
4.00
19.43
Shots allowedContext
16.57
5.71
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.57
5.29
BlocksContext
4.14
4.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
75%
Save rateContext
73%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
305
PassesContext
468
227
Accurate passesContext
396
74%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.71
14.86
FoulsContext
9.43
11.86
Fouls sufferedContext
12.57
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
0.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.41
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
2.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.52
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
17.50
ShotsContext
10.30
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
31%
On target shareContext
32%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
61%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.25
17.40
Shots allowedContext
15.90
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.60
BlocksContext
4.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
77%
Save rateContext
67%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
315
PassesContext
454
241
Accurate passesContext
383
76%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.70
FoulsContext
10.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Frosinone
WDWLW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,078 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.1 vs expected
Torino
WLDWW
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel595 km420 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Form 75 · 10 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Frosinone |
Torino |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Serie A 2026-2027, 29 Oct | 4.8Serie A 2026-2027, 27 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 595 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,078 km | 420 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Frosinone
Last XI · not confirmed
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia
30I. Monterisi
2G. Cittadini
20A. Oyono
14Giacomo Calò
73P. Masini
17G. Kvernadze
10R. Schmid
7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Torino
Last XI · not confirmed
20Lucas Perri(G)
15P. Comuzzo
44A. Ismajli
23Saúl Coco
77Alessio Cacciamani
21Daniel Bragança
8R. Mandragora
45R. Belghali
10N. Vlašić
19C. Adams
18G. Simeone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Frosinone
No reported absences
Torino
Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.2% of weighted minutes
- DEF F. Israel Depth 6.45 Def −0.2%
Total impact vs full squads
- Frosinone+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Torino+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Frosinone · Home
2.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Torino · Away
1.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Frosinone | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | W 4–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Frosinone wins2 draws0 Torino wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 21 Apr 2024Torino0–0Frosinone
- 10 Dec 2023Frosinone0–0Torino
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Frosinone | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.71 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 71% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 71% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Frosinone | Torino | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 2.90 | 2.87 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 80% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 80% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 10% | |
| Games | 7 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Frosinone | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.86 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 12.43 | 7.43 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 0.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 2.29 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 5/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Frosinone | Torino | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.20 | 3.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 8.10 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.70 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Frosinone7 games · scored 13 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Torino7 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
4
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
Torino10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
