Inter vs Como – 8 Nov 2026

Serie A Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 8 · 17:00 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milano

Inter 1st · 19 pts · 7 played WWDWW

VS— Compare

Como 5th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Inter are clear favourites.

Inter are the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 67). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. Inter have 4.9 days of rest, Como 3.9 and have to travel 39 km.

Away travel39 kmRest days4.9 · 3.9Matches / 14d3 · 3

Inter62%

Draw19%

Como19%

Expected goals 2.44 – 1.30

Inter58%

Draw24%

Como19%

Expected goals 1.85 – 0.97

Inter62%

Draw19%

Como19%

Expected goals 2.44 – 1.30

Inter53%

Draw21%

Como25%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.46

Inter62%

Draw19%

Como19%

Expected goals 2.49 – 1.34

Over 2.5 72% Both score 67% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 21 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Milano)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Inter 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Inter

Como

84 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67

83 Current StrengthIn forecast 65

91 AttackIn forecast 72

73 DefenceIn forecast 67

76 Form indexContext 50

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Inter

Attack−17%

Defense risk+33%

Como

Attack−23%

Defense risk+84%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Inter

Como

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

1.29 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

2.67 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.61

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

100% Scored inContext 71%

29% Clean sheetsContext 14%

21.57 ShotsContext 21.43

7.29 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.86

34% On target shareContext 32%

15.14 Shots in the boxContext 13.43

70% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 8%

2.83 OffsidesContext 2.67

11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.71

4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

2.71 BlocksContext 2.86

2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

68% Save rateContext 69%

63% PossessionIn forecast 61%

616 PassesContext 588

556 Accurate passesContext 527

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.20 Team ratingContext 7.01

8.14 FoulsContext 8.29

9.43 Fouls sufferedContext 9.57

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.29

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.41

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

100% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

21.00 ShotsContext 19.00

7.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

34% On target shareContext 34%

14.80 Shots in the boxContext 12.10

70% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.88 OffsidesContext 3.20

11.40 Shots allowedContext 13.60

4.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

2.80 BlocksContext 2.70

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

64% Save rateContext 69%

61% PossessionIn forecast 60%

586 PassesContext 571

529 Accurate passesContext 513

90% Pass accuracyContext 90%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.97

8.70 FoulsContext 9.70

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Inter WDWLW

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,084 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 76 · 10 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.0 vs expected

W17 OctA · Bologna3–11.9 xPts
L13 OctH · Club Brugge KV3–41.9 xPts
W10 OctH · Parma3–02.6 xPts
D19 SepA · AS Roma2–21.2 xPts
W14 SepH · Udinese5–32.4 xPts

Como WLDLW

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel39 km1,658 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Inter	Como
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov	3.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	39 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,084 km	1,658 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 7	1 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Inter Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs Bologna (A) 3–1, 17 Oct

1Josep Martínez(G)

95A. Bastoni 25M. Akanji 31Y. Bisseck

32F. Dimarco 8P. Sučić 7P. Zieliński 23N. Barella 11L. de Lima

94F. Esposito 9M. Thuram

Como Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali

9A. Douvikas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Inter No reported absences

Como No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Inter+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Como+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Inter · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-0
Scored: 3.75
Conceded: 1.50

Como · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Inter	Como
Parma	W 3–0 H	W 2–1 H
AS Roma	D 2–2 A	D 0–0 H
Udinese	W 5–3 H	D 1–1 A
Napoli	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 A
Points	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game	8 of 12 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

4 Inter wins0 draws0 Como wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.75 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets75% · 0%

12 Apr 2026Como3–4Inter
6 Dec 2025Inter4–0Como
23 May 2025Como0–2Inter
23 Dec 2024Inter2–0Como

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Inter	Como	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.71
Conceded per game	1.29	1.00
Match goals	4.29	2.71	3.74
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	86%	57%	72%
Over 3.5	71%	29%
Both teams scored	71%	71%	67%
Clean sheets	29%	14%
Failed to score	0%	29%
Games	7	7

	Inter	Como	Forecast
Scored per game	2.80	2.20
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	4.60	3.40	3.74
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	72%
Over 3.5	70%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	80%	67%
Clean sheets	20%	10%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Inter	Como	League
Corners
Corners won	5.86	7.29
Corners conceded	3.43	4.57
Match total	9.29	11.86	9.38
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	86% 6/7
Over 9.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.29
Opponent cards	2.00	2.14
Match total	3.57	3.43	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7

	Inter	Como	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.70
Corners conceded	3.20	4.40
Match total	9.20	10.10	9.38
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	1.90	2.70
Match total	3.70	4.30	3.43
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.