Napoli
Attack−6%
Defense risk+6%
Our take
Napoli are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Napoli. Napoli have 3.6 days of rest, Lazio 6.9 and have to travel 187 km.
Away travel187 kmRest days3.6 · 6.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Napoli53%
Draw25%
Lazio23%
Napoli46%
Draw26%
Lazio27%
Napoli53%
Draw25%
Lazio23%
Napoli45%
Draw26%
Lazio29%
Napoli54%
Draw24%
Lazio23%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Napoli and Lazio. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Insight
Lazio
4
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Lazio
3
Wins in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Trend
Lazio
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Napoli
+1.02
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.81xG against0.79
-
Trend
Lazio
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Streak
Lazio
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Defence
-
Insight
Lazio
4
Clean sheets
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Lazio
0.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Napoli
1.6
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Napoli
3
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
-
Streak
Lazio
3
Wins in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Streak
Lazio
7
Unbeaten in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Lazio
7
Scoring in a row
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
NapoliLazio
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
61
AttackIn forecast
53
70
DefenceIn forecast
63
44
Form indexContext
87
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLazio
Attack−19%
Defense risk+19%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
NapoliLazio
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.57
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
0.77
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.67
86%
Scored inContext
100%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
16.71
ShotsContext
12.71
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.29
33%
On target shareContext
34%
11.86
Shots in the boxContext
6.86
70%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.57
Shots allowedContext
12.43
3.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
4.40
BlocksContext
3.43
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
74%
Save rateContext
85%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
510
PassesContext
446
443
Accurate passesContext
381
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.06
8.57
FoulsContext
12.00
8.86
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
0.86
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.45
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.70
ShotsContext
11.90
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
34%
On target shareContext
39%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
67%
Box shareContext
56%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.90
OffsidesContext
1.83
16.20
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
5.13
BlocksContext
3.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
69%
Save rateContext
78%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
516
PassesContext
450
450
Accurate passesContext
388
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.92
9.00
FoulsContext
12.00
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
WDWLL
Rest3.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km6,579 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Lazio
WDWWW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel187 km694 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 87 · 13 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Lazio |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.6UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov | 6.9Serie A 2026-2027, 1 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 187 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 6,579 km | 694 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 7 | 1 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.3 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Meret(G)
5B. Badiashile
13A. Rrahmani
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
68S. Lobotka
6B. Gilmour
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
23Giovane
20L. Lucca
Lazio
Last XI · not confirmed
35C. Mandas(G)
17Nuno Tavares
25Oliver Provstgaard
37J. Šutalo
15R. Floriani Mussolini
24K. Taylor
21R. Belahyane
16D. Frattesi
10M. Zaccagni
14T. Noslin
11G. Isaksen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
No reported absences
Lazio
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lazio+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Lazio · Away
3.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia | L 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Bologna | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Genoa | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Points | 6 of 9 · 2.00 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
4 Napoli wins2 draws4 Lazio wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 40%
- 18 Apr 2026Napoli0–2Lazio
- 4 Jan 2026Lazio0–2Napoli
- 15 Feb 2025Lazio2–2Napoli
- 8 Dec 2024Napoli0–1Lazio
- 28 Jan 2024Lazio0–0Napoli
- 2 Sep 2023Napoli1–2Lazio
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.57 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 57% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 43% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Napoli | Lazio | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 5.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 10.14 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 5/5 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.86 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 3.29 | |
| Match total | 2.15 | 5.15 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/7 | 86% 6/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Napoli | Lazio | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.88 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.38 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 9.26 | 9.30 | 9.38 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 5.00 | 3.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Napoli7 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lazio7 games · scored 14 · conceded 4
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lazio10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
3
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
