Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celtic are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Celtic. Celtic have 4.2 days of rest, Celta Vigo 4.2 and have to travel 1,550 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel1,550 kmRest days4.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 3
Celtic56%
Draw22%
Celta Vigo22%
Celtic43%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo31%
Celtic56%
Draw22%
Celta Vigo22%
Celtic48%
Draw24%
Celta Vigo29%
Celtic55%
Draw23%
Celta Vigo23%
Over 2.5 65%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 52 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Glasgow)
5°COvercast
- Precipitation 25%
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 86%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celtic and Celta Vigo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
CelticCelta Vigo
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
54
74
AttackIn forecast
36
50
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCelta Vigo
Attack+11%
Defense risk+22%
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticCelta Vigo
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
3.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.79
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.61
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.00
ShotsContext
13.00
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
37%
On target shareContext
27%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
76%
Box shareContext
62%
7%
ConversionContext
4%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
20.00
Shots allowedContext
16.50
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
5.50
BlocksContext
4.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
46%
Save rateContext
73%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
556
PassesContext
516
496
Accurate passesContext
460
89%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.36
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.50
FoulsContext
13.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
0.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
0.99
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.00
ShotsContext
10.40
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
45%
On target shareContext
32%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
73%
Box shareContext
50%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
1.44
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
5.20
BlocksContext
3.80
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
77%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
587
PassesContext
497
516
Accurate passesContext
431
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.82
11.70
FoulsContext
11.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,917 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Celta Vigo
LWDLW
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,550 km1,622 km in 14d
Schedule load40%High
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Celta Vigo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | High · 40 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 18 Oct | 4.2La Liga 2026-2027, 18 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,550 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,917 km | 1,622 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.7 | 2.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Celta Vigo
Last XI · not confirmed
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres
18Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
6I. Moriba
30H. Burcio
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
24C. Driouech
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
No reported absences
Celta Vigo
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Celtic+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Celta Vigo · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 2.00 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Celtic | Celta Vigo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.10 | 3.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 65% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 10.00 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Celtic | Celta Vigo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 13.30 | 8.89 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Celta Vigo2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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