Como vs Venezia – 1 Nov 2026

Serie A Gameweek 10 Sun, Nov 1 · 11:30 Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como

Como 5th · 14 pts · 7 played WWLDW

VS— Compare

Venezia 20th · 3 pts · 7 played LLLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Como are clear favourites.

Como are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 15). Como come in after 4+ matches in 14 days. Como have 4.7 days of rest, Venezia 3.8 and have to travel 256 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel256 kmRest days4.7 · 3.8Matches / 14d4 · 2

Como80%

Draw13%

Venezia7%

Expected goals 3.00 – 0.85

Como78%

Draw15%

Venezia7%

Expected goals 2.62 – 0.68

Como80%

Draw13%

Venezia7%

Expected goals 3.00 – 0.85

Como74%

Draw16%

Venezia11%

Expected goals 2.68 – 0.95

Como84%

Draw11%

Venezia6%

Expected goals 3.30 – 0.85

Over 2.5 74% Both score 55% Likeliest score 3–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Como)

15°CDrizzle

Precipitation 18%
Wind 1 km/h
Humidity 78%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Como

Venezia

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

72 AttackIn forecast 21

67 DefenceIn forecast 14

50 Form indexContext 19

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Como

Attack+48%

Defense risk−24%

Venezia

Attack−12%

Defense risk+26%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Como

Venezia

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.86

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.29

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.43

1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext -0.57

71% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

21.43 ShotsContext 14.14

6.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.43

32% On target shareContext 31%

13.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.29

62% Box shareContext 69%

8% ConversionContext 6%

2.67 OffsidesContext 2.83

14.71 Shots allowedContext 17.29

3.71 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.14

2.86 BlocksContext 4.14

2.57 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50

69% Save rateContext 69%

61% PossessionIn forecast 54%

588 PassesContext 470

527 Accurate passesContext 400

90% Pass accuracyContext 85%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.75

8.29 FoulsContext 9.86

9.57 Fouls sufferedContext 10.29

1.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.86

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.88 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.41 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.08

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.33

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

19.00 ShotsContext 13.00

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

34% On target shareContext 32%

12.10 Shots in the boxContext 8.60

63% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 8%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.38

13.60 Shots allowedContext 17.10

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50

2.70 BlocksContext 4.50

2.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56

69% Save rateContext 65%

60% PossessionIn forecast 51%

571 PassesContext 438

513 Accurate passesContext 367

90% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.76

9.70 FoulsContext 10.90

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Como WLDLW

Rest4.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d4High congestion

Travel0 km838 km in 14d

Schedule load35%Moderate

Form 50 · 7 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Fiorentina3–11.8 xPts
L14 OctA · Feyenoord2–31.2 xPts
D11 OctH · AS Roma0–01.4 xPts
L20 SepA · Frosinone0–22.1 xPts
W14 SepH · Parma2–12.4 xPts

Venezia LLLLW

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel256 km581 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 19 · 3 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected

W17 OctH · Napoli1–00.6 xPts
L12 OctA · Atalanta1–30.5 xPts
L19 SepH · Lazio0–20.6 xPts
L11 SepH · Fiorentina2–41.2 xPts
L6 SepA · Frosinone2–30.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Como	Venezia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 35	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	Yes	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.7Serie A 2026-2027, 27 Oct	3.8Serie A 2026-2027, 28 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	256 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	838 km	581 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 4 / 6	2 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.4	5.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Como Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Fiorentina (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1J. Butez(G)

3Álex Valle 2M. Kempf 99T. Chalobah 28I. Smolčić

7L. da Cunha 6Luis Milla

8M. Caqueret 10N. Paz 30M. Liberali

9A. Douvikas

Venezia Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs Napoli (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1F. Stanković(G)

15Juan Jesus 2M. Moreno 25R. Halhal

5R. Haps 26T. Bašić 19S. Sohm 71Kike Pérez 18A. Hainaut

45A. Adams 10J. Yeboah

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Como No reported absences

Venezia

Attack line −0.0% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes 1 without recent minutes (no impact): M. Šverko

Total impact vs full squads

Como+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Venezia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Como · Home 2.00points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.50

Venezia · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Como	Venezia
Fiorentina	W 3–1 A	L 2–4 H
Frosinone	L 0–2 A	L 2–3 A
Napoli	W 2–1 A	W 1–0 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Como wins2 draws0 Venezia wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

8 Mar 2025Como1–1Venezia
8 Dec 2024Venezia2–2Como

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Como	Venezia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.71	0.86
Conceded per game	1.00	2.29
Match goals	2.71	3.14	3.85
Over 1.5	86%	86%
Over 2.5	57%	43%	74%
Over 3.5	29%	43%
Both teams scored	71%	43%	55%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	29%	43%
Games	7	7

	Como	Venezia	Forecast
Scored per game	2.20	0.86
Conceded per game	1.20	2.29
Match goals	3.40	3.14	3.85
Over 1.5	90%	86%
Over 2.5	70%	43%	74%
Over 3.5	50%	43%
Both teams scored	80%	43%	55%
Clean sheets	10%	14%
Failed to score	20%	43%
Games	10	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Como	Venezia	League
Corners
Corners won	7.29	4.33
Corners conceded	4.57	4.17
Match total	11.86	8.50	9.38
Over 8.5	86% 6/7	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	57% 4/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.29	2.86
Opponent cards	2.14	1.14
Match total	3.43	4.00	3.43
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	43% 3/7	29% 2/7

	Como	Venezia	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	4.56
Corners conceded	4.40	4.89
Match total	10.10	9.45	9.38
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.30
Opponent cards	2.70	1.60
Match total	4.30	3.90	3.43
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.